Iowa: The percentages are deceiving
Submitted by Stan4Clark on January 4, 2008 - 2:42am.
Iowa | Democratic politics
The official results are:
Senator Barack Obama : 37.30%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
To understand these numbers, you must keep in mind that these are DELEGATE percentages. Here are the delegate counts. Those numbers are the aggregate totals of delegates elected at all the precincts. These are delegates to the county conventions:
Senator Barack Obama : 37.30% -- 867delegates
Senator John Edwards : 29.97% -- 697
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53% -- 687
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12% -- 50
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94% -- 22
Uncommitted : 0.12% - 3
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03% -- 1
Remember also the threshold -- 15%. Therefore Richardson, Biden and Dodd "made threshold" in one or more precinct, since they have delegates.
It would be WRONG, WRONG, WRONG to use the percentages and say that Biden, for example, only had 0.94% support at the caucuses. It is mathematically possible that he got 14.9% of the votes in the initial vote in every single precinct caucus at which he didn't make threshold..
Also the three survivors benefited from the second-round votes originally cast for the candidates who didn't make threshold.
The Iowa Democratic party does not release the original raw votes, only the delegate percentages and counts. We'll never know what level of support Biden, Dodd, and Richardson actually had.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
the votes. We take the tally from the sign-in sheets (both pre-printed lists of Dems in the precinct and those that the newly registered sign). Each candidate's precinct captain counts their own group and turns it into the Precinct Chair and Secretary who add them all up to see if the totals agree. Mine did (taking into account the 5 people that left before the second round) but if they hadn't I would have asked the precinct captains to recount until the numbers agreed. The lady in the story should have asked someone about the process if she was concerned.
In my precinct after the first round of counting, there were 2 Kucinich, 2 Dodd, 5 Biden, 5 undecided, and about 6 Richardson. In contrast there were 90+ Obama, 90+ Edwards, and 70+ Clinton. Sorry I don't have the exact numbers with me at the moment. This was pretty typical of numbers I have heard at other precincts in my county. Biden, Dodd, and Richardson just didn't have enough support in this large of a turnout. I doubt they even came close to the 14.9% in most precincts. I believe the percentages released are typical of the events and are not deceiving.
In my precinct after the first count, there were 9 Biden, 8 Dodd, and 7 Richardson, 37 Edwards, 46 Clinton and 64 Obama. After the second round the count was 39 Edwards, 46 Clinton, 67 Obama. Several chose not to realign with anyone.
This was pretty much what was happening in the precincts around me. Kucinich, Dodd, Biden and Richardson had very few supporters and we had nobody that came in undecided.
Thanks, Padidog.
Those are staggering numbers. If we got anything close to those numbers here, we'd have a major logistical problem.
All the precincts in one state house district meet in the same place. In both 2004 and 2006, we met in a high school cafeteria. Each precinct got a table. (We vote, but don't go to a corner for each candidate.) The tables seat eight or nine people.
In 2004, my precinct caucus had seven people. In 2006, after I sent postcards to the 100 most active Dems by voting record, we got a dozen. There were maybe 300 people all totaled for a couple of dozen precincts.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
I think most precincts were overwhelmed by the number of people that came out to caucus. In Iowa City at least three precincts had over 700 people and 5 precincts had over 600.
I think most precincts at least doubled, if not tripled, their 2004 turnout numbers.
It was a fun evening!
-Amy
the two Dodd supporters and a couple of other people left after the first round since they didn't want to support anyone else. I can't remember that ever happening before.
after the final round counts were turned in but before we awarded the delegate counts. Luckily the counts added up to the total attendance the first time. My secretary and I had to find a security light to do the figuring so the people not interested in being a delegate or not interested in the platform or committee election section of the caucus could leave. Once the delegates were awarded, most of the Obama supporters left except for those needed to fill the delegate seats. After those elections, all but one Obama supporter left. He decided he didn't have time to be involved in anything but at least listened to the platform. I guess the other 91 couldn't be bothered by involving themselves in anything so unimportant as serving on a committee or discussing those items that should be on our platform.
According to CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/04/iowa.caucuses/?iref=hpmostpop
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark still could be the national security candidate.