Gordon Suber posed a serious question over at ms in la's diary which got me to thinking of the political cycles we go through repeatedly in the USA. There seems to be a generation cycle, and there's also a momentum cycle that is strategically very important. I touched on both of these in the answer I gave to Gordon.

This diary concerns another significant cycle; namely the cycle in which perennially center-right America is sometimes in an aggressive, manifest destiny seeking, competitive sort of mood; but is at other times in more of a diplomatic, cautious, collaborative sort of mood. If I were to speak of these opposing moods in Asian terms, the first would be seen as exhibiting mostly "yang" (typically masculine) energy, and the second would be seen as exhibiting mostly "yin" (typically feminine) energy.

As all of our Presidents have been of the male gender thus far, it might seem on the surface that we therefore have not yet entered a "yin" cycle at any time in our history. However, that ignores the fact that for most of my lifetime, the Democratic Party has been the champion of most things "yin", while the Republican Party has most often opposed those things, and customarily displayed a very "yang" view of the world. So, just how did we manage to elect Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Al Gore anyway? What was the dominant energy in our country when they were elected? How did that energy match the energy of our candidates and how did it conflict with the energy of their opponents?

It's not too hard to see that the center-right majority in our country had been in a fairly long "yang" mood before the collapse of our policy in Vietnam led to a widespread "yin" reaction. It was that reaction, I would argue that produced the conditions for victory for the remarkably "yin" Jimmy Carter over the mildly "yang" Gerald Ford.

In Bill Clinton's case, the center-right had been moved even further to the right as a result of the perception that Reagan had defeated communism, so it was pretty much a case of the slightly less "yang" challenger benefitting from the cyclical movement away from the slightly more "yang" incumbent.

And in Al Gore's slender victory, which in his "yin"-like way he diplomatically and collaboratively abdicated, we see that the country was on the verge of cycling back into a more "yang"-like mood.

So, where are we now? In reaction to the horrific failure of the Bush-Cheney "yang" policies, I would argue that we are in the midst of the most "yin"-like mood this country has ever had in my life-time. If that is true, why then, as Gordon asks, is Hillary where she is now? I mean, after all, isn't she clearly the most "yin"-like of all the candidates? She is the only female in the contest, so it only stands to reason that she truly is the most "yin".

But let's look at some of the other candidates first. Take Mitt Romney, for example. Would anyone describe him as "yin"-like? I don't think so. The same goes for Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and well, for all of the Republican candidates, including John McCain. But wait a minute - from a center-right point of view, which of those Republicans looks more like a Democrat than any of the others? That's right. John McCain. The guy they are going to nominate. War hero, yes. Hence, yang. However, he's a very humble war hero; a very humble, rather old, war hero who has often broken with his very "yang" party - hence, he is truly the most "yin" of the Republicans who tried for the nomination.

So, what about Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd? Faded "yang". Joe Biden? Fading "yang". John Edwards? Legally "yang". Barack Obama? Ya..., no, wait a minute...I'm picking up some collaborative, cautious, diplomatic signals. Yes, there's something very seemingly "cooperative" and "collegial" about him that reminds me in a vague sort of way of ...Jimmy, yes Jimmy Carter, the most "yin" president in my lifetime.

Barack Obama. "Yin". Definitely "yin". So "yin" in fact, that he makes John McCain's mild "yin" just fade away. Wow (I think, being a loyal Democrat)! That means he may be able to defeat John McCain if he gets the nomination - so long as the country is still in a "yin" like mood, that is, and provided he doesn't screw it up by trying to go "yang" against McCain. But wait (I think, being a loyal Democrat)! What point is there in electing a Democrat who'll likely waste his first two years in office, and be taunted into proving his manhood ("yang") by one of those al-Qaida dudes with the very long ("yang") beards?

Then I come back to our Hillary. Now here is a balanced person. She is very "yin" in her heart and her soul, but she knows just how to think and act assertively in a way that would be applauded as terrific "yang" if only she were somehow less obviously female. Maybe it would be easier for her if she got a Maggie Thatcher or Golda Meir makeover, I think in the dwindling old sexist recesses of my aging mostly still "yang"-like brain. But then I snap out of it, and remember what's been going on during the campaign to beat Hillary. She hasn't been criticized very often for being too female, too "yin". She's been many more times falsely accused of being too "yang", too "aggressive", too "divisive", too much of a "hawk", too ruthless. Hey, her husband was nearly drawn and quartered by the media for being too "yang"-like in her defense.

Meanwhile, John and Barack have taken the lead mostly because of their relative "yin" sides, not their relative "yang" sides.

That's it, then. "Yin" is the new "yang", at least for the guys, and at least for now. That is until we get hit with some other 9/11 style attack, or until some other crisis occurs that truly demands decisive action. And, baring one of those decisive action things occurring, "yin" will beat "yang" in November, unless "yin" stumbles when the going gets rough. Hillary's innate and natural "yin" will defeat McCain's weak "yin". Her hard-learned and energetic "yang" will also defeat his fading "yang" if the country's mood swings in that direction before November. But Obama will find it very difficult to win in November if the country turns back to a "yang" like mood. His public image is just far too "yin" for that.

For right now, though, the "yin"-like Barack Obama is the media's new "yang" on the block. Let's see how far he gets with that in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday. I sense that his "yin" (new "yang") is starting to be questioned.