It ain't over.
Submitted by mad4clark on March 22, 2008 - 1:24pm.
Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | Jerome Armstrong | Democratic politics
Jerome gives us the numbers.....
While Obama supporters remain extremely worried about Clinton's chances of winning, and her state of campaign finances. I can't help but recognize that the call to shut down the nomination battle before all the votes are counted, hopefully a position held by a vocal minority, is unfortunately reminiscent of the Bush supporters mantra against Gore in Dec of 2000.
I also can't help but notice that Clinton does seem to have much better chances than Obama in the upcoming races:
Pennsylvania - Clinton by double-digits
North Carolina - Toss-up
Indiana - Toss-up, no recent poll
West Virginia - Clinton by double-digits
Oregon - Toss-up, no recent poll
Kentucky - Clinton by double-digits
Puerto Rico - Likely Clinton, no recent poll
Montana - Likely Obama, no recent poll
South Dakota - Likely Obama, no recent poll
And a few words of advice.....
I'd advise the Obama supporters to be calm. Neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to win the nomination. You should also be informed that the rules do not say that, therefore, the candidate with the greatest number of pledged delegates in the winner. Besides, if Clinton does have a good couple of next few months, there's a likelihood that she'll be able to point toward having the pledged delegate lead, when counting the states of FL & MI. The popular vote also remains very much up in the air, especially if Clinton racks up very high win percentages in PA & PR, also when counting the states of FL and/or MI.
This will have to be settled by the rules committee and the Super-delegates, but even before that, there's still votes to contest and count. Enjoy the democratic process.
It's precisely because of the upcoming primary schedule that Obama supporters and their acolytes in the Media are in a sudden frenzy to force Hillary out of the race. (see all the "she can't win the math" headlines last week)
In a nutshell, they are scared sh**less.
The Politics of Delusion
by eriposte @ The Left Coaster
Yesterday, a commenter said:
...[Obama] doesn't just give good speeches, he writes good speeches and that is the key. He wrote that speech on race and understands the issues well.Think what a debate between him and Mccain will be like, he will distroy him.
I have a different view of Presidential elections based on past experience. The Presidency is not going to be won by the candidate with the best speech or the best debate performance (think Al Gore, John Kerry v. George Bush). Anyone who thinks that is unfortunately oblivious to what happened in the last two Presidential elections. The conservative-leaning traditional media will determine the next President (the media that many "progressive" bloggers and activists have co-opted in this primary season just because it happens to hate Hillary Clinton). If you've not been paying attention, John McCain continues to have the highest favorables despite one damaging story after another coming out about him in the past weeks. There's a reason for that. He is a press corpse favorite - Teflon's Teflon. My prediction, having observed how right-wing conservatives work the media to their advantage (Bob Somerby has the latest example), is that Sen. McCain☼ will remain the press corpse favorite if Sen. Obama☼ becomes the nominee. Additionally, the DNC is dramatically hurting for $ compared to the RNC and is not focusing as much attention on defining McCain now in the 50 states - at a time when Obama and Clinton are duking it out. This will prove to be a big problem in the general election.
I have noticed some Obama supporters are dismissive of the Wright fiasco saying it is not going to hurt him long-term. This is wishful thinking. I still believe it is unlikely to hurt him that much in the primary and nomination primarily because of the media's (and part of the progressive blogosphere's) Clinton-hatred. However, over time, as the GOP mainstreams the fiasco and Obama's poor response to it (including the glaring contradictions in his statements and behavior), the Wright situation will most definitely hurt him in the general election campaign and hurt the Democratic party as well. (Most people don't realize that the Swift Boat Veterans attack against Kerry was mainstreamed over months, not days). For example, here's just a tiny sample of what we can expect to see in the general election from 527s and Republican front groups - via Marc Ambinder (and we've barely just started with the GOP's "vetting" of Sen. Obama, mind you:
A couple of final points. I recommend Turkana's post "And Speaking of Dirty Tricks" for those who haven't read it. The Obama campaign lost any remaining credibility it had on the Wright fiasco by sending the photo of Bill Clinton with Jeremiah Wright to the media, even though the Clinton campaign scrupulously avoided bringing up the story with the media until then. With this astoundingly stupid act, Sen. Obama and his dumb advisors have now made his association with Wright completely fair game. They will pay for this mistake and the Democratic party will pay for it dearly as well if he becomes the nominee.
P.S. I don't need to be reminded that there will be a million videos about Sen. Clinton☼ and how she murdered XYZ or associated with ABC and so on. I already know that and I expected no less since I know a thing or two about how elections against Republicans work. The issue is the delusion amongst some of Obama's supporters that he's somehow going to have a much better chance of winning the Presidency based on "issues" and "debates" and "speeches". He's not.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
that will not simply fade with the passage of time. Millions of viewers have watched not only a hatemonging preacher, but whoops of appreciation and agreement from his flock. BO is, of course, a member of this church, and his wife's attitude is completely consistent with the message. And his so-called "great" speech may have had good timbre and cadence, but his words sounded like the same old Clarence-Thomas whining. I almost expected BO to complain of a high-tech lynching! That may be next.
The difference between Obama and Wright and the Clintons and Wright is big to me. Because as far as I know the Clintons didn't attend this mans church for 20 years. How were they to know that he was a hate monger? They didn't. Obama knew Rev. Wright a lot longer . So to me there is no comparison really. Any Obama supporter that uses this as a point I believe is making a weak one at that.
In this season of athletic competition, each time I hear a call for Clinton to drop out because she's not ahead, I can't help but compare this to any number of sports competition. I was a competitive swimmer in my youth and I cannot imagine giving up on a 100 meter race with 25 meters to go when I was only 3 strokes behind. If you want to think of it in NCAA basketball terms, what would you think if UNC left the court when they were 6 points behind the challenger with 2 minutes to go? It's unheard of. Real leaders, solid champions don't quit til the buzzer sounds or the race is officially over. Screw the call to drop out "for the sake of the party". It's more for the sake of Barack! I say, keep your focus and keep going Hillary, for the sake of the country!
Silly BO made an absurd comment yesterday in an interview when he said "Hillary and Bill don't like to lose". I so wish the interviewer had asked, "Well, do YOU like to lose?"
I don't have a problem with sports analogies, and I think this one is brilliant! So much so, that I posted it to a thread at Washington Monthly. It's a post about the O-fans spreading the rumor that Hillary is only staying in to harm Obama in the GE! They are so trying to make this the truth that I can only guess they know he'll lose in a landslide if he's up against McCain. (BTW, Drum doesn't believe it, and is asking his posters to show him the money if that's what they believe.)
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
whenever you read such drivel, you counter directly with a suggestion that since O's poll #'s are tanking, that it would be prudent for HIM to drop out.
For the good of the Democratic Party, Obama must drop out - NOW! He is no longer a viable national candidate.
I need to stay away from Democratic Underground. The obamabots took over a long time ago. There was a thread that explained where to report threats against Hillary, and it was deleted. Your post was refreshing and
restored some of my hope. Thank you again : )
"Just so we're reminded of the ones who are held back, up front there ought to be a Man In Black."
-Johnny Cash
~ snip ~
Anyway, I think somewhere about a month ago, I made a comment about how Obama wins by suppressing the Clinton vote, not by actually, you know, *winning*. And Matt Yglesias lays it all out before us as to why the big boyz are screaming for Hillary to get out because The Math is against her. Here it is in Matt’s own words:
I think if voters better-understood the situation, they’d be much more inclined to vote for their second-favorite Democrat in the race, much less eager to do volunteer work for Clinton, much less inclined to donate money to her campaign, etc. But people won’t understand the dynamic unless it’s explained to them by credible party leaders.There it is in all its maggoty ugliness. They are trying to make Hillary supporters stop volunteering, donating money and voting for her. How delightfully nasty. Fess up! Some of you even let them get to you, didn’t you? You stumbled on this site after hearing this from the Kossacks and Talkingpointsmemo and Chris Bowers and thought, “What’s the use? Even if I work my ass off, we can’t win.” I *know* you did because I have the comments that prove it.
The evil geniuses who run Obama’s campaign and the @$$holes in The Gang of Four (Dean, Brazile, Pelosi and Kennedy) have learned a lot of disgusting little tricks from the Republicans. Like, if you make people believe that Hillary doesn’t have a chance and you do this relentlessly over the next 5 weeks, maybe the voters will give up on her just as we gave up on Gore after the 2000 election. Sweeeet!
~ snip ~
Yglesias is wrong if he thinks Obama is our second favorite. I’d rather write in Mike Gravel or Dennis Kucinich at this point. At least I’m fairly certain *they’re* Democrats. I don’t know what kind of construct Obama is. And Edwards better get off the fence and do something if he doesn’t want his policies to be trashed by this imposter.
The Gang of Four want a charismatic candidate without a legislative past. He doesn’t have to earn his coalitions; they are gifted to him. If he wins the nomination, he will be beholden to him. And they are putting him forth not for his own value but as the “anti-Clinton” candidate because she is a Democrat with a strong political personality and Obama is weak politically in comparison and easy to manipulate. That’s the whole story, guys. That’s what it all means. And all the pieces make sense.
I think the Clinton campaign knows what it has to do to combat this meme but it will take a lot of troops on the ground in PA to turn this around. Even the strongest among us succumbed to it. The average voter needs innoculation. I’m going to do my part in a couple of minutes with my sister so she can tell her friends not to listen to it.
Fight it any way you can. There *is* a choice left. Our votes *do* count and we *can* turn this around. In this game, it’s not how you begin but how you finish that counts and as Shakespeare said…
“All’s Well That Ends Well”
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Yes, it is a concerted effort to suppress the Hillary vote.
Despicable!
"It's not all about words and math. It comes down to who can win."
BTW, I did some research last night on the Illinois State Legislature. I knew his state senate job was part time, I just didn’t know how part time. It turns out the Illinois General Assembly meets about 75 days on average per year, and only 55 of those days are mandatory attendance. On non-mandatory days, they don’t even take roll call so you cannot know how many days your legislator showed up and worked. 55 days for 7 years works out to about a year and a half of full time work. He had two years in the US Senate when he announced for the presidency, so he’s basically a guy who worked 3.5 years before he decided to run for the Democratic nomination. Ego, ego, ego.
This could very well be the reason he continues to hide his IL Senate schedule.
"It's not all about words and math. It comes down to who can win."
I would think this could be important since he argues his Illinois experience so much. May I ask what he was doing when he wasn't in session? Did he have another job-a law firm, perhaps?
I would think this could be important since he argues his Illinois experience so much. May I ask what he was doing when he wasn't in session? Did he have another job-a law firm, perhaps?
I can only speak for the legislators I know here (9 or 10 of them), but after May whatever-it-is, the constitutionally mandated end of the session, they spend the rest of the year meeting with constituents and in committee meetings getting ready for the next session. With rather short sessions required by the state constitution, most of the legislative grunt work is done between sessions. What Obama did may remain a mystery.
Plus, of course, representatives have to campaign every two years, and senators every four.
The people I know work very hard even when the legislature isn't in session. Their hourly pay, if they counted all the hours, would be measured in cents, not dollars.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
We're sure to learn everything in minute detail then. Whether we want to or not.
Proud to be an American.
because I read he said the reason he didn't have records of his State legislature time is because he didn't have enough aids. He neglected to mention that he didn't need aids because he wasn't there that much! LOL!! Obama has a nifty way of holding things back. It's another example of how he gets away with stuff that Clinton would be blasted for.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Turns out, according to former Chicago reporter Todd Spivak, all of his legislative accomplishments were in his final 7th year and were handed to him by his mentor, Ill. State Senate President Emil Jones.
The Illinois legislature was dominated by Republicans for 26 years. These included Obam's first 6 years in the state Senate. Not surprisingly, says Spivak, he had no legislative achievements during these years.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/3/23/224059/069
Oh, and about Obama's mentor Emile Jones..
Obama's Third "Toxic Mentor"?
snip
First there was Tony Rezko. Then Jeremiah Wright. Now get ready for Emil Jones, President of the Illinois Senate who was so instrumental in Obama's legislative career he referred to himself as "Obama's godfather." The TimesOnLine (UK) has the details.
Their close relationship began in 2003 when Obama sought Jones' support to run for U.S. Senate.
“You have the power to elect a US senator,” Obama told Emil Jones, Democratic leader of the Illinois state senate. Jones looked at the ambitious young man smiling before him and asked, teasingly: “Do you know anybody I could make a US senator?”According to Jones, Obama replied: “Me.” It was his first, audacious step in a spectacular rise from the murky political backwaters of Springfield, the Illinois capital.
Obama has frequently described his closeness to Jones: [More...]
snip
For almost a year Jones has used his position as leader of the state senate to block anticorruption legislation passed unanimously by the state’s lower house. He has also become embroiled in ethical controversies concerning his wife’s job and his stepson’s business.None of them is linked to Obama, but the Democratic contender can ill afford another scandal related to his former Chicago allies.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/3/23/21452/2456
"It's not all about words and math. It comes down to who can win."
Switch positions of the candidates as they stand right now, and one has to wonder, would they be calling for Obama to step down? Um. No.
What the O supporters are in process of doing is setting up their excuse for the GE, IF O is the nominee. They are saying that Hillary is only staying in at this point to do so much damage to Obama that he won't be able to win the GE.
They are pre-validating that his loss in the GE will be all the fault of Hillary. Pretty slick, I'd say. I'd wager some of them know he can't win.