How Hillary wins.

Submitted by mad4clark on March 28, 2008 - 10:38am.
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Jerome Armstrong has a good piece up right now showing that Obama's blocking of the FL and MI re-vote may have actually given Hillary the opening she needs....

Including MI & FL, Clinton is only behind in pledged-delegates by 46-56 delegates, which could be halved in Pennsylvania alone. 46 is the number going off of DCW, but 56 is what I got when using the Obama counting of pledged delegates, and adding in the 67 Obama got from FL and the 178 that Clinton got from FL and MI, that results in a 1485-1429 difference of delegates. DCW has a 1473 to 1427 margin. I imagine that 46-56 number gets updated a bit up and down with further final results coming in from the previous contests. It also should be noted that there are, in addition, 55 uncommitted delegates from MI, and 31 delegates still aligned with Edwards.

Obama's got everything going for him right now, he's in position to claim a victory by nearly all the measurements, most importantly the pledged delegate lead and the popular vote. However, he may have left an opening to Clinton by not fully cooperating with Clinton and the DNC to find a way to let MI and FL re-vote. They don't want to chance Clinton winning two more big states, but by not going along with it, they give Clinton a lifeline via her ability to count those states as they stand, and possibly, if Clinton manages to pick up enough pledged delegates, counting the FL and MI results from January, to claim she has the lead in pledged delegates.

The popular vote too, via RCP's numbers, has Clinton lifelines via FL's votes being counted, and less so (argumentatively at least), with MI's. Ironically, that might come down to whether Clinton is really strong in Puerto Rico, as some believe (Obama's online supporters have been touting the support of PR's Gov. but that ain't looking so hot right now). It's possible that 2 million could vote in that primary. On that note, you really have to go check out this nifty interactive counter by Jay Cost.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/27/194947/250

And do click on that "nifty interactive counter by Jay Cost" for an eye opening look at the "math"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

:)

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WWTSBQ Watch - Patrick Leahy Edition
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Submitted by mad4clark on March 28, 2008 - 4:23pm.

http://www.correntewire.com/wwtsbq_watch_patrick_leahy_edition

Taylor's answer....

Enter Senator Patrick Leahy, someone who is making the situation worse. What a wimp. Statements like what he made today are also only going to harden Hillary supporters against Obama.

No wonder the Democratic Congress can't manage a real PR campaign to get us out of Iraq.

There's only one reason Barack Obama and supporters like Leahy are standing in the way of counting all the votes, including Florida and Michigan. Segue to a post by Marc Ambinder:

The hyperintelligent Jay Cost at RearClearPolitics has produced for us a most helpful spreadsheet computing the various popular vote scenarios.

But this paragraph, is, to me, a very crucial point that both Clinton and Obama campaigns would rather ignore:

We have a large number of unknown factors. For many of them, we have very little idea what values they will ultimately take. What we do know is that small changes in several of them could induce large changes in the vote count. This makes it extremely difficult to be as precise as many commentators have been. We need to be wary of all the uncertainty we face here.
So -- my fairly conservative calculation has Clinton netting about 446,000 votes between now and June 3. Under all scenarios that exclude Florida and Michigan votes -- and count the votes of Washington's primary -- Obama still retains a popular vote lead of not more than 330,000 -- or an advantage of less than one and a half percent.

Under a scenario that includes the Florida and Michigan votes for Clinton, gives Obama all of the uncommitted Michigan votes, estimates the votes for all the caucus states and includes the Washington primary, Clinton wins by about 16,000 votes -- or about a tenth of one percent. ... ..

But what do we get from Obama and his team? Give up.

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.

This is just too nasty.

Stop the debate.

No more voting!

End the "infighting," also known by people with actual spine as debate.

Democrats like Leahy, Ed Schultz and the like are so dumb they actually believe that if everyone shuts up McCain and the Republicans won't figure out how to beat Obama up side the head with ads. What's wrong with these guys? Have they been under a rock for the last 20 years. They sure sound like it.

To be blunt, Senator Patrick Leahy is exhibit A on why Democrats lose presidential elections. Some of these elite DC Democrats just don't know how to fight. It's the reason Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leder Reid find themselves beat on the PR campaign on Iraq at every turn. Bush has cleaned their clock.

Let's face it. Some of these elite party officials just don't know how to fight. Leahy, Kerry, who I've fought hard for but who wouldn't go to the mat in Ohio, with Obama agreeing with him back then, all represent the Don't Fight For Every Vote wing of the Democratic party. They're all afraid of letting the girl in the race get her votes and fight until someone wins. Tom Daschle? Puh-leaze. What's scaring these boys?

Bill Clinton fought off the entire wingnut arsenal in the 1990s. The Obama contingent, led by Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the Obama elites, would have egged him on to resign. But WJC knows how to fight. As for Hillary, she's revealed the same grit and then some over the years.....

http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=27309

"A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood of ideas in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people." JFK


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There is only one reason
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Submitted by jen on March 28, 2008 - 4:23pm.

O and his supporters want her to drop out. Because they know she has a very real chance of beating him. That's it. Why else would they be so anxious for her to hand him the nomination? I mean, flip the numbers and ask O supporters if they would think he should drop out.

Also, the longer this goes on, the more truth and facts about who this guy is will come out. Either now or later, he's going down.


Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.


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Bingo!
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Submitted by mad4clark on March 28, 2008 - 4:35pm.

...and doesn't the Rezko trial reconvene on Monday?

The vetting started late, but hopefully not too late.

"A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood of ideas in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people." JFK


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Obamaniacs want to move the goal post again!
Submitted by briarhopper on March 30, 2008 - 9:34pm.

Now, according to Chuck Todd on Washington Journal, Hillary will have to decide to drop out after NC and IN! Not after PA, of course, or WV. Hmmm...wonder why. And, he adds, she won't even have the money to compete in NC or IN!! (And maybe little green men will swoop in from Mars and whisk her away!) I wonder if psychologists will soon declare obamania a new disease. Well, they're going to need a whole lotta nets and paddy wagons, if they do!

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