35 Senate Races 2008: 23 GOP - 12 DEM
Submitted by early-bird on April 5, 2008 - 8:56am.
Mississippi | Senate Races 2008 | Wyoming
Thirty-Five Senate Races in November
23 GOP & 12 Dems November 2008
Senate Races : partial list
toss - up:
GOP Sen. Wayne Alland - retiring -- Colorado
competitive:
GOP Sen. Larry Craig - resigned --Idaho
competitive:
DEM Sen. Mary Landriue - incumbent -- Louisiana
competitive:
GOP Sen. Susan Collins - incumbent -- Maine
competitive:
GOP Sen. Norm Coleman - incumbent -- Minnesota
competitive:
GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole - incumbent -- N. Carolina
toss - up:
GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel - retiring -- Nebraska
competitive:
GOP Sen. John Senunu - incumbent -- New Hampshire
competitive:
GOP Sen. Pete Domineci - retiring -- New Mexico
competitive:
GOP Sen. Gordon Smith - incumbent -- Oregon
toss - up:
GOP Sen. John Warner - retiring -- Virginia
~~
TWO GOP SENATORS EACH STATE: WYOMING & MISSISSIPPI
both GOP Senators up for re-election
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/l/bl_2008_senate_elections.htm
I can see Musgrove pulling out enough votes to squeak through, with Obama losing.
Mississippi by newdem1960, Sat Apr 05, 2008
two more delgates last week in Mississippi;
if you read some articles just from PA. Congress members quoted this week; they are really excited about Obama's coat-tails; that has been the message from other state representatives too; that kind of energy that is happening around his campaign;
but you brought it back to the primary and general election and I wanted to have some thoughts, comments and ideas about the Senate races;
if we don't start thinking about these Senate races we'll have missed once in a lifetime opportunity to make progress to make things better;
Obama picked up by pollwatch, Sat Apr 05, 2008
We need to start making up some ground in the south and he's the candidate with the coattails in the south. I believe he can help us change our landscape in the south.
Obama will help us in the South by SoniaS, Sat Apr 05, 2008
I say this because, even though Blanco's low popularity and the black exodus after Katrina led to Bobby Jindal's victory, Mitch Landrieu won re-election without a problem. The Democrats also won the Attorney General's office pretty comfortably. So there was split-ticketing in LA.
Landrieu should win by oceanstar17, Sat Apr 05, 2008
The state was trending Repub, they said. But if so, Jindal was a high-water mark. In that race, the Democrats had a divided field and no candidate emerged to force a runoff. (I liked Boasso's ads, but cum'on, elected to the State Senate as a Democrat, switched to Repub, switched back to D to run for Gov. Must have been too much stuff even in LA.)
Meanwhile two Repubs bailed out of their House seats, and our chances look good in those races: LA-06, centered on Baton Rouge, has a special coming up soon, and then LA-04, Shreveport, will be open in November. Even in LA-01 we have a vigorous progressive challenger for Jindal's vacant seat. Strong Democrats running in those districts will provide reverse coattails to Mary Landrieu.
(And I infer that someone has encouraging polling out of LA, to get the DCCC and such strong candidates so very, very interested in these House races.)
LA-02 could see 'Dollar Bill' Jefferson out by November, either with a resignation as part of a plea-bargain or as a consequence of a conviction. That change would eliminate a huge embarrassment to the Democrats.
Meanwhile if 'Diaper' Dave Vitter takes the Fifth in the D.C. Madame's trial, the Repub's huge embarrassment will be fresh in voters' minds.
I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Louisiana emerge as a battleground state by the fall.
Of course, I'm not expecting another close Presidential election. Those are rare. So either the Democrats break out into formerly red states, or vice versa. And I just don't see McBush as being the break-out kind of candidate.
Democratic tide in Louisiana by Woody, Sat Apr 05, 2008
In a race, usually you have some good luck and some bad luck, and you hope that by the finish line you'll have had more good luck than bad.
Now consider Larry in Idaho.
No, the Democrat. No, not Larry Grant, he's running again in ID-01.
In April 2007, a former Congressman, Larry LaRocco announced for Senator, against the popular long-time incumbent Larry Craig. For LaRocco it was a chance for payback, because he lost his first House race, a challenge to the incumbent Craig way back in 1982 (though LaRocco got 46.5% of the vote). For us, well, 'contest every seat', we always say, so 'Thanks Larry' for taking this one on.
Then in August the news broke about Senator Craig's tap dance with the cop in the men's room. Craig almost resigned, then changed his mind and decided simply not to run for re-election, so he's serving out his term.
Two big steps for our man Larry. He won't be running against the incumbent, after all, and the outgoing Larry has helped to damage the Repub brand in Idaho.
Meanwhile the Repubs sort of settled on Lt Gov Jim Risch. At least, he's the establishment candidate. Seven others will be on their primary ballot. Also running in November will be a Libertarian and two independents, one a wealthy Repub rancher, and another who legally changed his name to appear on the ballot as "Pro-life". (Gee, he could as easily have changed his name to "Flake" -- but I digress.)
Two more steps for our man Larry. His opponent faces a possibly annoying primary, and then in November other candidates will drain off support from Risch's right. A win would be a double pay-back. LaRocco tried to take a state senate seat Risch held in 1986, and went up against him for Lt Gov in 2006.
LaRocco has won before. Elected to the House in 1990, and re-eleced with a 50,000 vote margin. Then he was wiped out in the Gingrich-Contract With America wave in 1994, making him the last Democrat to represent Idaho in Congress.
Polling in this race has been limited. Survey USA in September 2007 gave Jim Risch 52%, to our man Larry at 36%.
Then in December, Myers Research and Strategic Services saw Risch at 48% and our man Larry at 34%, at the same time finding a generic Senate matchup favoring a Democrat 42% to the Repub's 36%. This shows great upside potential for LaRocco as he consolidates the Democratic-leaning voters, and downside potential for Risch. And in a state so deeply red as Idaho, more than half the people surveyed were not yet ready to vote Repub in this race!
If our man Larry LaRocco can keep his run of luck going, he can hit the jackpot in November!
Wyoming - Mississippi: both Senate seats held by GOP up for re-election 2008
GOP Senators retiring: Colorado,Idaho,Nebraska,New Mexico,Virginia
special GOP meeting in New Mexico - John McCain already organizing New Mexico putting alot of energy there
Karl Rove: picked Dem Senator Mary Landrieu's GOP opponent ( was Dem state treasurer who switched to GOP in 2007 )
A free market was never meant to be a free license to take whatever you can get, however you can get it. - Obama
both GOP Senators in Wyoming & Mississippi up for re-election 2008
Governors of Wyoming & Mississippi
DEM - Dave Freudenthal ( til 2010 )
GOP - Halley Barbour ( til 2011 )
John McCain and GOP are focusing on New Mexico to keep retiring Pete Dominenci's seat in Senate for GOP
and all that energy will go towards early organizing for Governors race 2010 Dem Gov. Bill Richardson is term limited
hence the focus on N.M.; national labs LANL & Sandia & Air Force base in NM
A free market was never meant to be a free license to take whatever you can get, however you can get it. - Obama
http://www.mercurynews.com/politics/ci_8486536
Democrats' dream scenario: a filibuster-proof majority in Senate
ELECTION LANDSCAPE STACKED AGAINST GOP
03/07/2008
WASHINGTON - When Mark Begich, the popular 45-year-old mayor of Anchorage, Alaska, came to town for a meeting of mayors in January, he was beckoned to the Capitol by the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada. There was one agenda item: ousting Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, the most senior Republican in Congress.
For 45 minutes, Reid and Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, pressed the mayor to run. Last week, they got their man. Begich announced Feb. 27 that he had formed a committee to start raising money. The race is on.
For Democrats hoping the November elections set off a seismic shift in Washington, the dream scenario is not just capturing the White House, but also winning a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats in the Senate - a luxury no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter 30 years ago.
As far-fetched as that might seem - Democrats now control the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 majority, thanks only to two independents who vote with them - some Democrats have started thinking out loud that such a scenario is within reach.
From the Northeast to the Southwest, the Democrats have such a strong hand in this year's Senate contests that they are sensing the possibility of victories in unlikely states such as Oklahoma and Mississippi, and now even Alaska, which last elected a Democratic senator in 1974.
"It's a remote possibility, but it is within the realm of the plausible," said Paul Starr, a public affairs professor at Princeton University and a liberal commentator.
Numbers help tell the story: Republicans have 23 seats to defend, including five left vacant by retiring incumbents, while the Democrats have just 12 seats to defend, with a competitive race expected only in Louisiana. Even there, the incumbent, Mary Landrieu, is a heavy favorite.
The presidential campaign, too, seems to be cutting in the Democrats' favor. In many states, there has been record voter turnout in the primaries, but far more for the Democrats. Nearly 28 million people have voted in Democratic races so far this year, compared with more than 17 million in Republican races.
Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, in particular, has shown the capacity to ignite turnout among younger voters and black voters, and Democratic strategists believe he could have longer coattails than Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York in states such as Minnesota and Oregon, where Democrats hope to swipe Senate seats held by Republicans.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona's need to run as a centrist may undermine his ability to help congressional candidates.
Democrats also are dominating the money race. Campaign finance data released in late February showed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee with more than $30 million, compared with about $13 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Though it is unlikely that Democrats will pick up nine seats this year, according to any reading of the political map it remains a possibility - as tantalizing a thought for Democrats as it is horrifying to Republicans.
Democrats have repeatedly sought to get 60 votes to advance legislation only to be blocked by Republicans. Thursday, Senate Democratic leaders complained that Republicans had engaged in a record number of filibusters.
Republicans accused Democrats of exaggerating the numbers and of inviting Republican filibusters by pursuing legislation they say is partisan.
So far, no Democratic incumbents are so vulnerable that their re-election campaigns are rated as clearly up for grabs.
"I don't remember a time when I had a ratings chart that I am looking at now, where one party didn't have any races in 'tossup' at all," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan publication. "When have you had a cycle where a party has a one-seat majority and there is absolutely no talk of them losing that majority? It doesn't happen that way, ever."
Independent analysts like Duffy predict that the Democrats will pick up four to six seats, with an open seat in Virginia virtually certain to flip in their favor and Republicans at risk of losing open seats in New Mexico and Colorado.
A free market was never meant to be a free license to take whatever you can get, however you can get it. - Obama
Thirty-Five Senate Races in November
23 GOP & 12 Dems November 2008
Senate Races : partial list
competitive:
DEM Sen. Mary Landrieu - incumbent -- Louisiana
[DOB 11/23/1955 Arlington Virginia]
competitive:
GOP Sen. Susan Collins - incumbent -- Maine
[12/7/1952 Caribou Maine]
competitive:
GOP Sen. Norm Coleman - incumbent -- Minnesota
[DOB 8/17/1949 Brooklyn NY]
competitive:
GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole - incumbent -- N. Carolina
[DOB 7/29/1936 Salisbury N.C.]
competitive:
GOP Sen. Gordon Smith - incumbent -- Oregon
[DOB 5/25/1952 Pendleton Oregon]
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/l/bl_2008_senate_elections.htm
72 years old -- Dole - 1936: su@06le, n.node@03cp, ma@22ca, sa/su@18li
59 years old -- Coleman - 1949: su@24le, n.node@18ar, ma@16ca, sa/su@23li
56 years old -- Smith - 1952: su@04ge, n.node@24aq, ma@02sc, sa/su@00le
56 years old -- Collins - 1952: su@15sg, n.node@14aq, ma@12aq, sa/su@21aq
53 years old -- Landreiu - 1955: su@00sg, n.node@17sg, ma@26li, sa/su@23cp
A free market was never meant to be a free license to take whatever you can get, however you can get it. - Obama
if you want to focus on Joe Liberman he is going to campaign for Sen. Susan Collin in Maine
if you want to focus on Rove/Bush they are campaigning against Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana
Wyoming & Mississippi
2 GOP up for re-election
WY: Michael Enzi 73% last race
WY: John Barrasso n/a special election upon death former Senator ***
MS: Thad Cochran 85% last race
MS: Roger Wicker n/a appointed upon Trent Lott retirement ***
A free market was never meant to be a free license to take whatever you can get, however you can get it. - Obama
Jim Neal, Kay Hagan ?? Dems vs. Sen. Elizabeth Dole
April 4, 2008
Hagan raises a million for race
She has easily outpaced primary opponent NealKay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat running for U.S. Senate, said yesterday that she raised more than $800,000 in the first three months of 2008 and currently has more than $1 million to spend on the race.
Hagan so far has outpaced her opponent in the Democratic primary, Jim Neal. But her fundraising trails far behind that of the Republican incumbent she is trying to unseat, Sen. Elizabeth Dole.
The next deadline for U.S. Senate candidates to file campaign-finance reports is not until later this month, but Hagan released her latest numbers early, saying that they show she can go toe-to-toe against Dole in November.
"I think that this shows that our campaign is competitive nationally and on track to win the primary," said Colleen Flanagan, Hagan’s spokeswoman.
Earlier this week, the political-tracking Web site Real Clear Politics ranked the Dole seat for the first time as one of the nation’s 10 most competitive Senate seats.
However, a lot will depend on fundraising - particularly the extent to which the national Democratic Party and other groups funnel money into the race after the May 6 primary.
Dole, who is known as a strong fundraiser,
had $2.6 million on hand at the end of 2007, and is likely to raise much more before the general election.
Hagan’s $1 million in cash on hand is far below the amount that she previously estimated that she would need to beat Dole. When she first got in the race last fall, Hagan, a state senator, said that she thought it would take $10 million to make the race competitive.
Flanagan said yesterday that the campaign did not have any specific target of how much Hagan would have to raise to be competitive in November.
Neal, an investment banker from Chapel Hill, has run a grass-roots campaign and has positioned himself to the left of Hagan, painting her as a typical politician and a government insider.
Neal’s campaign did not release its fundraising numbers yesterday for the first three months of the year, saying it would wait until the end of the filing period on April 16. But Neal’s campaign manager, Andrew Kain, said that Neal was unlikely to reach Hagan’s figures.
"We expect to be competitive. A million dollars? I don’t know that we’re going to get close to that, but frankly we’re not the head of the Senate Appropriations Committee, so it makes it a little harder to raise money," Kain said, referring to Hagan’s position in the N.C. Senate.
Hagan is tapped into North Carolina’s Democratic establishment in a way that Neal is not. Gov. Mike Easley and state Senate leader Marc Basnight, for instance, are openly supporting Hagan.
Neal has tried to close the gap by relying more on out-of-state donors, by lending his own money to his campaign and by developing a network of supporters on the Web.
But it appears that Hagan is out-fundraising Neal even over the Internet, which has been considered Neal’s turf. Hagan’s campaign said that she raised more than $230,000 online in the first three months of the year. Neal has raised about $96,000 online in that same time span, Kain said.
A free market was never meant to be a free license to take whatever you can get, however you can get it. - Obama
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120735372773491353.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Excerpt
April 5, 2008; Page A4 OMAHA, Neb. --
Democrats are optimistic they can weaken the Republican grip on this prairie state and some neighboring states, just one slice of the country where the political dynamic may be changing. In 2004, George W. Bush carried this rural state with 64% of the vote, and few people expect Nebraska to vote against likely Republican nominee John McCain come November. But Nebraska is one of two states whose constitution permits proportional distribution of its five electoral votes (the other is Maine), meaning a split decision is possible depending on how well the candidates do in individual congressional districts. Democrats also hope to pick up some seats in the House of Representatives, whose Nebraska delegation has been all Republican since 1995.
There are reasons for the Democrats' optimism. Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel is one of the few outspoken Republican critics of the Iraq war, making voters here sensitive to the issue. The state also has a chunk of independent voters as well as those who switch parties easily. Democratic primary races here are crowded with contenders itching to run against three Republican incumbents in the House and hoping to make a battle of the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Hagel, who is retiring. "It's a great year to be running in Omaha as a Democrat," said 32-year-old Jim Esch, competing in the May 13 primary to represent Nebraska's Second Congressional District, a seat held by Republican Lee Terry.
During Greenspan's 1987-2005 tenure, the sum of public and private debt in the United States quadrupled from just over $10 trillion to $43 trillion.
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/l/bl_2008_senate_elections.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008
If you look at the list of only incumbent Dems you can see why Mary Landrieu is being targetted for a 'bloodbath' - - the other incumbents likely to be safe while she might be able to be GOP knocked off;
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
Senator Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996 following a recount and was narrowly re-elected in 2002 in a runoff election. Since those elections, Democrats have had to endure the loss of many reliable voters because Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-Americans from New Orleans. Louisiana elected David Vitter in 2004, the state's first Republican senator since Reconstruction. Louisiana's electoral votes also went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004
On August 27, 2007, state Treasurer John N. Kennedy announced he was switching parties from Democrat to Republican.
On November 29, after being personally recruited by Vitter and former Bush administration official Karl Rove, Kennedy announced plans to challenge Landrieu in 2008.
A SurveyUSA poll shows him trailing Landrieu 46% to 42%.