Mon, 12 May 2008 10:00:05 -0400
Suffolk University has Hillary Clinton winning West Virginia by 36. Many Obama supporters and media pundits will scream nasty things about West Virginia if that is the result. The reason is they have no understanding that demography has been political destiny in this campaign. West Virginia is 97% white. Barack Obama has not gotten more than 40% of the white vote since Wisconsin, where he won the white vote. So a huge defeat in west Virginia was to be expected. Let me share with you some exit polling regarding white voters in other states. First, from Obama's crushing win in NC - Clinton won whites 61-37. In PA, Clinton won whites 63-37. In Ohio, Clinton won whites 64-34. In MA, Clinton won whites 58-40. In Maryland, Clinton won whites 52-42. Missouri, Clinton won whites 57-39. And the same type of results were found in TN, AR, NJ, GA, MS, AL, FL and so on.
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Whatever people want to say about the results in West Virginia tomorrow, it is unfair and a mistake to pretend West Virginia is an anomaly. Outside of the West (Obama won whites in CA, WA, ID, UT, CO, KS, etc) Obama has not fared well with white voters. (Out West, Obama has fared poorly with Latinos.) This is not an Appalachia issue, as some have suggested.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
about CA. According to someone in the comments, CNN exit polls show Hillary narrowly won white voters in CA.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
in those states were early, during the hopey/changey vogue. Now that more and more is being "unearthed" about Obama, voters are changing. I wonder how many of those early voters now have buyer's remorse?
We're electing the President of the United States, not some g.d. prom king.
Buyer's Remorse in California? On 02/05/08, Californians voting in the state's Democratic Presidential Primary backed Hillary Clinton by a 10-point margin. In a new SurveyUSA poll conducted 05/07/08 - 05/08/08, Californians say if given the chance to vote again today, they would choose Barack Obama by a 6-point margin, 49%-43%.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8630f662-e9a1-4dc2-9583-7a9d75880bec
and that was 2/05/08. The other one is just hot air and one wonders why anyone would bother to do it.
We're electing the President of the United States, not some g.d. prom king.
came out to vote in our primary, a record breaking number. I would defer to what those 9 million voices declared over any paltry after-poll of ... 631 people.
But it does make a specious and "pretty" argument for those three California news channels who commissioned the petite after-poll. If one were in the desperate, last minute Obama propping up business ... I can certainly appreciate just how such a "poll" might be useful for needed headline fodder.
I'll venture that I too could quite handily find 25 Californians* who now regret their primary vote for Obama in light of some recent revelations of his judgment of longtime personal friends and associates. *(The math: 25 represents the polls' differential of voters expressing "remorse" decreasing the actual vote results from 55/45 Clinton-- to 49/43 Obama within a 631 person sample)
I could do that in about...oh... half a day, in between doing business.
We should read and interpret our polls just as carefully as we do our so-called "news". They are usually two arm of the same beast.
CA will not vote for McCain; you might but the state isn't electing McCain; you are re-inforcing your own bias using your capacity to
argue in non-constructive way unless in fact you want McCain elected;
The true test of our patriotism is whether we will serve our returning heroes as well as they've served us. - Obama
I'm ... so surprised.
You didn't read what I wrote. Said nothing about McCain or CA voting for McCain. Nor did SUSA's limited poll.
It was called Buyer's Remorse. It was a limited polling to show Hillary voter's remorse after the fact.
It showed a 25 person switch by their own numbers' extrapolated.
I too can show 25 voters who regret their O votes and why on God's earth am I bothering to explain what I just wrote is beyond me.
Have a nice
Day
Good to be back.
rally for McCain - that is what I am asking
and common sense is all you need to know that McCain is not winning Ca in November;
dont' need poll or opinion on that;
The true test of our patriotism is whether we will serve our returning heroes as well as they've served us. - Obama
Tell you that CA would not elect Schwarzenegger? Twice?
CA has shown on more than one occasion that they will vote for a moderate Republican. McCain is perceived to be a moderate Republican.
CA is also the state that gave us Ronald Reagan.
I don't think you're much of an expert on common sense.
campaign tactics, caucuses, small Dem populations, and Repub crossover, IMO. The idea of him winning large sections of white votes is becoming a bigger myth than the U.S. government trying to wipe out black people with AIDS. The Repubs, as a group, are whiter than WV. BO's own campaign encouraged them to be "Democrats for a day", vote for BO, and then go back to being registered GOP members. Some commentators criticized Hillary for having no sustained campaign plans due to her expecting an early win. Well, what does BO plan to do if he gets the nomination? Some Dems haven't played the race card for the sake of party unity, and some deluded individuals believe that the Repubs won't either. (Do I have to mention that the sky is blue?) Plus, the Repubs have an even bigger card, and it's a big one that billows in the breeze--Old Glory. For decades, the GOP has been using the God, Guns, and Gays strategy and wrapping themselves in the flag. Well, this year, maybe we can substitute Geeks for Gays, but the outcome will be the same if BO is the nominee.
WILLIAMSON, W.Va. — Everyone who knows 11-year-old Dalton Hatfield sees it. There’s something special about the young man. His mother Vickie says all who come in contact with the Kentucky elementary student look at him and say “He’s going to be something” when he grows up.
Apparently that goes for former presidents, too.
When Hatfield presented former President Bill Clinton with a check for $440 after Friday’s rally at the Williamson Fire Station, the man who was once the leader of the free world seemed to nearly come to tears.
“You sold your bike to get this?” Clinton asked the McAndrews, Ky. native.
The reply was “yes” and a whole lot more.
Hatfield feels so strongly that Hillary Clinton should be the next president he not only sold his bicycle, but video games and anything else he could find that “I could make money with” to donate to the former first lady’s bid for the Democratic nomination.
“I was thinking one day how could I make money for the campaign,” he says. “And I just went through my closet and found things I didn’t need.”
“I though he was raising vacation money,” says Vickie Hatfield, who along with Dalton’s father, Bruce Hatfield, accompanied him to the event. “When I found out it was for Hillary, I told him to go for it.”
The result was a donation that for the most part left the former president, who is known as a great communicator, speechless.
http://www.timeswv.com/archivesearch/local_story_132172723.html
I hope this child is invited to Hillary's inauguration.
sniff
"A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood of ideas in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people." JFK
Thanks for posting this, Maddy. The Hatfields sound like remarkable people. Young Dalton surely "is going to be something!" He's already something! I would love to see the Hatfields up front at Hillary's inauguration!
...report from the field...
Chevalier, on May 11th, 2008 at 11:08 pm Said:
I’m just back from West Virginia campaigning for Hillary. Just some notes:
* Most of the people I met - and I met a LOT of Hillary supporters in public places, don’t necessarily match the demographic of old hicks, racists, etc. Most of our volunteers were fairly young, and both men and women.* I saw the belligerence of Obama supporters, yet again. This was VERY very disturbing. I had FOUR black families/groups SCREAM “Obama, Obama” at me, in my face, and not even in jest. And given that I’m not even white, it’s not like they thought I was being racist - they just thought physically intimidating me was the acceptable, ok thing to do. And we weren’t in a secluded place, or being intrusive - we were outside a large, crowded mall.
Funnily enough, two months ago in Texas, we had to stand up to both, Obama supporters as well as Republicans who hated the Clintons. Now in WV, the Obama supporters were even more bellicose in their victory (like their leader?). I actually had a few Republicans say they admire the woman for her guts in the face of adversity. One man, out walking his dog, actually said “she stands for everything I believe in, y’know, her strength and human spirit and self-determination. I always thought Democrats were liars and thieves - for the first time in 55 years, if it is Hillary Clinton vs. McCain, I’ll have to think seriously about the Democrat”. (Of course, he seemed like he meant every word of it, and promised to donate, even asked for a Hillary sticker - but since he put the sticker immediately on his dog, I don’t know what to think :-))
* A lot of Hillary supporters I met are the opposite of ‘low-information voter’: they’re more well-informed than the average Obama voter I meet around home, in fact more so because they’ve actively avoided heavy, heavy pro-Obama media biases and actually sifted through to the data and policies. Many of them could intelligently argue the pros and cons of, say, universal healthcare....
"A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood of ideas in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people." JFK
even more than the "elitism" & "young voter" memes, the "low information voter" which they have deemed Clinton supporters as being- and have largely gotten away with, is what chaps my drawers.
I don't know.
Valerie Plame Wilson just doesn't strike me as a low information voter.
Firedoglake did an entry over the weekend about how VPW & Michelle O! spoke at the same event - I was thinking- The comments are MMMM! It's so yummy & copacetic!!!
How could anyone stand to listen to MO! for five seconds on national security matters when VPW was in the house. Talk about polarity.
Hands on long seasoned CIA agent who gave up her life & career to defend our national security outed by Bush regime vs. O! 2.0 - the mind seriously boggles.
Why bother.
Face it, Democrats: Barack Obama's got a growing problem with whites
Sunday, May 11th 2008, 4:00 AM
Hillary Clinton, down to her last straw, is making the case that she is the better candidate to run against the Republicans because, unlike Barack Obama, she can win white Democrats.
She is right. But because she is daring to touch the hot button of racial politics, she is being told to shut up or risk being charged with exploiting racial tensions for political advantage.
The facts are stubborn, however. Since his phenomenal win with 33% of the white vote in nearly all-white Iowa, Obama has been unable to get a firm grip on white Democrats. He has won a majority of these voters in only six states, the biggest of which is his home state of Illinois. Clinton has defeated Obama among white voters in key states such as California, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Exit polls show Clinton winning an overwhelming average of 57% of white Democrats since the February Super Tuesday elections.
If you think none of this is a real issue for Democrats as they try to win the White House, then listen to Republican guru Karl Rove. Citing Obama's inability to get more than 30% of Catholics or working-class white voters in a big state such as Pennsylvania, Rove recently wrote: "Defections like this elect Republicans."
And now we are heading into a general election with an even larger group of white voters in play, key independents and suburbanites in "toss-up" districts that swing between Republicans and Democrats.
So it is critical for the Democrats to focus on what it means to nominate this particular black candidate. It is critical for them to honestly assess his strengths and weaknesses, even when those are uncomfortably intertwined with his race.
In particular, being silent on race is not going to erase Obama's ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and the preacher's fireballs of inflammatory rhetoric.
~ snip ~
This is about facing facts. And history will reflect poorly on Democrats if they believe it is virtuous to ignore race in the name of nominating the first black candidate for the White House - even if it means giving the Republicans a better chance to once again walk away with the big prize of the presidency.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Good for him for standing up for the truth and looking beyond color.
I've struggled with Juan Williams in the past. I couldn't figure him out. Some days he would stand up for what is right, such as in this case - other days, he seemed to tow the FOX line.
I will have to give his work a closer look in the future.
Jen, thanks for the post.
as delusional as the bloggers at FireDogLake? Talk about la la land. I doubt if any one of them has read ANYTHING about Obama's background. What has this country become except a giant American Idol set?
We're electing the President of the United States, not some g.d. prom king.
I think most O! supporters don't believe his past alliances are going to matter. :/
Off to Carson. Laters all. Keep the blog fires burning!
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Please read and recommend this diary at MyDD!
Freedom Isn't Free, And Neither Are Contractors
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/12/154353/769
Death toll in China earthquake rises to 7,600
SFGate
(05-12) 07:53 PDT BEIJING, China (AP) --
A massive earthquake struck central China on Monday, killing more than 7,600 people and trapping nearly 900 students under the rubble of their school, state media reported.
The official Xinhua News Agency said 80 percent of the buildings had collapsed in Beichuan county in Sichuan province after the 7.8-magnitude quake, raising fears the overall death toll could increase sharply.
Xinhua cited the Sichuan provincial government as saying 7,651 people died, but the situation in at least two counties remain unclear....