Mon, 12 May 2008 18:00:04 -0400
This post (at kos) argues that Barack Obama's inability to connect with white working class voters is limited to Appalachia. That is incorrect in my view and I will discuss why I think so below. But the question is begged - is that not a problem in and of itself? The Appalachia Phenomenon is used to explain Obama's problem with white working class voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina and improbably, Maryland. That is 7 states. One is comfortably Democratic, Maryland. Four are solidly Republican, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee and Kentucky (though Bill Clinton won it). But the last two? Ah, Ohio and Pennsylvania. They decide Presidential elections. Even the Appalachian Phenomenon gives serious cause for worry. But the Appalachian Theory does not explain everything.
~ snip ~
But I do not accept that the Appalachian theory addresses the full spectrum of this phenomenon. Of course we have the Southern Problem which effects Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi.
But that still does not explain all of Obama's white working class problem. Let's look at three other states: Arizona, Florida and Indiana. In Arizona, Clinton won the white vote by 53-38 (she won Latinos 55-41.) In Florida, Clinton won whites by 53-23 (she won Latinos by 59-30). In Indiana, Clinton won whites 60-40. Are these three states in Appalachia too? Need to hear more? Ok.
In Massachusetts, Clinton won whites 58-40 (she won Latinos 56-36). In Rhode Island, Clinton won whites 63-37. In New Jersey, Clinton won whites 66-31.
Unless the entire country East of the Mississippi is now referred to as Appalachia, I think this proposed theory explains very little and indeed is part of the entire Ostrich approach we now see from Obama blogs. It is just plain silly now.
I believe Obama can do better. I believe his problem goes beyond race issues. Obama is indeed the wine track candidate, the candidate of the Creative Class (and of course African Americans.) But he must do better - with white women, with the white working class, with seniors and with Latinos. I wrote about this in February, March and April and Obama is not doing any better now. Indeed he seems to be doing worse. This is a problem that MUST be addressed for November. Pretending that saying "Appalachia" will solve it is no answer.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
If you cross reference...
by Salo on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:22:52 PM EST
...the caucus states with the Obama map you get a fair idea of why he got such lopsided supertuesday results. You have to remember that Clinton won the popular vote that day but came in second with the delegate count. with florida and michigan out of commission it was easy enough to see that obama and the media would spin it into a string of wins for Obama. Lopsided wins in caucus staes wiped out her vote count and successful statewide performances in massively populous states.
That's as good as the terrain maps showing Clinton winnning the Appalachian mountains.
She also won the back country in California fo rwhat it's worth--The Sierras.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Not an usual phenom, as any West Virginian could tell you! Okay, no big deal here--except that WV is not solidly Republican. It's a purple swing state. In the GE, Hillary could get it (Bill did); Obama hasn't a prayer there.
So the BOers are writing off Appalachia, are they? That means, in essence, that they're writing off hillbillies everywhere, including parts of GA, OK, TX, AR,(even northern CA) among others. Southern OH and panhandle FL are largely hillbilly. Do the Obamaniacs plan on disenfranchising us, ejecting us from the union, or what? I don't think these populations have much youthful fodder for the creators of O-bots, and if they believe one candidate is a far-left loony, they'll be out in droves to keep him out of office. It'll be like the year the same-sex marriage issues were on the OH ballot. My county, Lawrence, in the SE corner, voted 78% against. (The highest was Gallia, 81%). The lines at my polling place were at least quadruple what I had previously experienced. And, guess what: while these voters cast their anti-same-sex-marriage ballots, they also voted for W. If Obama is the nominee, you can just look at the OH primary-results map, where he won about 5 counties, and substitute McCain for Hillary.
You should read the comments at Talk Left -- the link in that post up there ^^ : How Big is Appalchia. Lots of good stuff there.
One has to wonder -- even if the superdelegates realize O! is going to tank badly in the GE, will they vote for him anyways? I thought I read the superd's were created to make sure the most electable candidate got the nomination, but we've never had a black person get this close to the nomination before, and I just think they may risk losing the election rather than alienate and anger the AA community as well as the Dem party elite who are bound and determined to destroy the Clintons -- like Kennedy, Kerry, Pelosi, etc. I **hope** not!
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Linked in comments at Talk Left:
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
You're going to be accused of racism, ageism, and sexism - all in one post! ;)
Oh wait, racism, ageism, and sexism are probably Hillary's fault...my bad!
Already been beaten over the head with those labels! LOL!! I'm for Clinton! What else could I be! Oh, and you forgot uninformed and under-educated! Yup. That be us! The Beverly Hillary's! LOL!!
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Serial karma killer on board!
We're electing the President of the United States, not some g.d. prom king.
Clinton 280 - McCain 241
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May12.html
Obama 237 - McCain 290
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May12.html
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Obama loses to McCain most of the states that his followers say he can win because he won in the primaries and in the caucases. Hillary Clinton wins over McCain all of the high electoral vote, high population states she won in the primary (including possibly Florida and Michigan- remember those states?). The super-delegates must be looking at these scenarios. One can't argue, hope, emote over these realites, they are what they are and it is not going to get any better for Obama.
for Barack Obama" Part I by Evelyn Pringle.
This is about the "Rezko Case" which is about far more than Rezko. It's a complex account and a long read, and this is only Part I. Worth it to go there!
http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_evelyn_p_080512_curtain_time_for_bar.htm
Corporate Press will sit on this until O! is the nominee (if he IS). It does great harm to the Repubs to bring this out now because he hasn't cinched it yet. If anyone had any doubt Corporate Press was in the Repubs pocket, this information should be a stark reminder. Those O! supporters who actually think he's going to get a free ride into the WH are in for some harsh reality if he's the nominee... The rest of us can only stand back and watch because the information is out there for anyone to read if they wanted. It's going to be soooooo ugly and so scary to even try and imagine what 4 years of president McCain will be like. And you know what? It will be mainly the fault of the Dem leadership who's hatred of the Clintons trumps everything else. For that reason alone, I will definitely not be a Democrat anymore.
All that said, I will not give up on Hillary until it's over. She's not, and we shouldn't either!
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
I'm surprised that this wasn't the first item in capital letters on all the Hillary-friendly sites today. I only saw one reference to it as I slogged through an incredible number of bloggers' comments. After the puff pieces on BO this weekend in the NYTimes and LATimes,it's obvious that all this will be suppressed until (or IF, I should say) BO is "annointed" as the Nominee. Then, it will be front and center. Some of this has been in the Chicago Tribune, but the Corp. Media never even refer to it. Part II comes out tomorrow!
that to see the entire "Illinois Combine" (heh - thank you Mr. Fitzgerald) taken apart piece by piece.
The Rezko business is a good start. If Mr. Fitzgerald can hold out, we may have a fighting chance.
Throw the bums out (of Illinois!) And keep them far away from DC.
That's my wish for this evening. I bid you all goodnight.
PS - Thanks SO MUCH for posting this link, dw!
I hardly ever, ever agree with John Kass (he's also so anti-Hillary!), but I do agree with him about the combine...he's been going after them for years.
for today's media to comprehend - therefore it will not get reported. Although, there could be other reasons - like not caring to.
We're electing the President of the United States, not some g.d. prom king.
Tried very hard! But the web is so tightly woven and the connections are so convoluted that it takes quite a long time to map them out. The average person is NOT going to take the time or the gray cell power to figure it out. Unless something can be boiled down and it can smack them between the eyes, no one will care. I might add that reporters are by and large lazy too. They won't take it and run with it unless its neatly summarized and handed to them on a platter. They are incapable of anything but "he had an affair", "he met a prostitute", "he was caught with a gun in his hand".
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/speech/view/?id=7661&sc=1848&utm_source=1848&utm_medium=e
Terrific! She covered the the nation's issues in a warm, thoughtful, and intelligent way, working in her own and Bill's history regarding their mother and grandmothers as well as good stories from history and around the country. It's hard to pick a quote as there are so many gems.
http://www.calitics.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=0E88E997DCDBB62742601FC751F5BC43?diaryId=5849
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4QARWWmMLg&eurl=http://www.calitics.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=0E88E997DCDBB62742601FC751F5BC43?diaryId=5849
Yacht Party 2 from the Courage Campaign
EXCERPT
The most extreme high priests of the tax cut cult operate right here in
California. Because Democrats do not hold a two-thirds majority in our
state legislature, a small minority of Republicans is able to hold
Californians hostage to a $20 billion state budget deficit, refusing to raise taxes on the super-rich.
It gets worse. Much worse. While California's future is being put in grave jeopardy, the tax cut cult is refusing to close a tax loophole for yacht and private jet owners.
Schools closing. Social services slashed to the bone. And right-wing Republicans are letting the uber-wealthy off tax-free on yacht and private jet purchases. It's no wonder the California Republican Party has been re-branded as the "Yacht Party" by the netroots.
To increase the pressure on Republicans in Sacramento to close this
yacht tax loophole, we need to make this "Yacht Party" brand stick. That's
why the Courage Campaign and California Nurses Association have just
teamed up to produce a new 60-second TV ad that strips naked the
shocking nature of the California Republican Party's priorities.
It's time to change the conversation inside Sacramento. Here are two actions you can take to help us make this "Yacht Party" brand stick:
1. CONTRIBUTE: please donate $25, $50, $100 or more to help us get our TV ad on the air in Sacramento on Thursday. This week is the unofficial start to budget season in Sacramento and we need to expose the "Yacht Party" as budget negotiations begin inside our state capitol. If you contribute at least $100, Arianna Huffington will sign her book ("Right is Wrong") and send it to you ASAP!
2. FORWARD THE YOUTUBE VIDEO: Please forward "Yacht Party 2" to your friends and family. Here is the direct YouTube link:
Lexical Hypothesis: the most salient & socially relevant personality differences in people’s lives will eventually become encoded into their language.
[ I am watching the HBO DVD series ' Band Of Brothers' best WWII movie ever saw ]
http://www.santamariatimes.com/articles/2008/05/12/opinion/letters/letter02.txt
EXCERPT
The original GI Bill, signed into law by President Franklin Roosevelt, was credited with creating the modern middle-class, and helping millions of veterans become doctors, teachers, scientists, engineers, lawyers and such.
The current GI Bill has become a shadow of its former self, failing to keep up with the cost of college.
A new, bipartisan GI Bill for the 21st century (Webb-Hagel S. 22) would update GI Bill benefits to allow those who served in Iraq and Afgha-nistan to get the higher edu-cation that we've promised our veterans since World War II.
However, John McCain has introduced legislation that would undercut that bipartisan effort. McCain's bill would reduce the college benefit that veterans would get.
The true test of our patriotism is whether we will serve our returning heroes as well as they've served us. - Obama
The only money I had to get through college bsides loans and part-time work was my Korean GI Bill. It was wonderful and it helped a generation of young folks get the education they needed to pursue a career.
We must support Senator Webb on this revitalization project.
Uncle Noel
by TexasDarlin @ Taylor Marsh
~ snip ~
Rural America can determine who becomes the next President. And West Virginia and Kentucky show off Clinton's commanding rural advantage.
But they aren't the only ones. Check out the county-by-county results from four very close contests (Clinton is red; Obama, green):
Missouri (Obama won by 1.3%):
New Mexico (Clinton won by 1%):
Texas (Clinton won by 3.5%):
Indiana (Clinton won by 2%)
As you can see, Clinton's base covers a broader geographic region, nearly a sweep of counties. Although population counts may be relatively equal between the red and green areas -- these maps illustrate how well she consistently performs in rural America.
Hillary has hit her stride in small towns and rural communities across the country, connecting with working class voters with a populist appeal reminiscent of Bobby Kennedy. For those who have followed Hillary Clinton's life and career, we know it's genuine. You can see the joy on her face when she's working the rope line in town squares, even at the end of a 16-hour day. Of course Obama's "bitter" moment aided her, but cinching this demographic segment is a crucial achievement that Clinton has earned for the Democrats. And, you might say...one benefit of this extended primary season that some party members are anxious to end.
A Democratic pollster for the Wall Street Journal and NBC News said it well:
Rural and small-town voters are the best indicators of whether a candidate is connecting with the values of Middle America. "They are America. Too often Democrats end up with candidates who can speak only to metro America. If you can speak to [rural and small-town America], then you relate to the rest of America."
Pay attention, folks. These are General Election swing voters needed to reach 270 electoral votes.
Swing voters.
And no one understands that better than the superdelegates, many of whom rely on these same voters for their own re-elections.
So Barack Obama might think twice about dismissing West Virginia and Kentucky, even if he calculates that their votes and delegates are inconsequential to the nomination. The hard-working people of Appalachia and bluegrass country represent a nationwide constituency capable of delivering the White House in November. And for Clinton, they will put her within striking distance of a popular vote lead.
Note: Maps and election results from uselectionatlas
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
see things like these maps which spell it out so clearly you can't help but wonder how the superd's could see it any other way. I am not a long time political junkie nor a Dem. I am an Indepedendent and really don't understand the Clinton/Hillary hatred, so I am more baffled than anything. The choice seems so obvious that I don't get what is going on in the Democratic Party?
Clinton hatred. The elitists in DC don't seem able to countenance such folk. W obviously irks them, and LBJ must have given them fits! I also think a lot of what is going on now is adoration of Obama. Most of the anti-Hillary rhetoric didn't start with liberal commentators until they started pushing for BO. Chris Matthews doesn't like the Clintons, but he didn't used to bash her at every opportunity. And Olbermann spoke well of her. Now it's like pod people have taken possession of them! It reminds me of the gingoism that took hold after the start of the present wars. IMO, if BO loses the nomination, it may keep going until it finally sputters out from exhaustion, and, if he wins the nom, he will surely lose the GE--then it will probably deflate quickly.
That's how Mike finished a conversation I just had with him on the air.
You did great! Malloy and many of his listeners like Clark, but as Malloy pointed out, the hard left have a big problem with a military guy (as we saw during the 2003-4 primaries). However, I doubt Clark would accept a veep spot, as he has said many times "I'm nobody's Dick Cheney". I frankly think Clark would be bored to tears sitting in the Big Chair in the Senate. Secretary of State would be more in line with his world experience.
Regarding your point that Clark should be the nominee,
If if's and but's were candy and nuts...
www.mccainsfreeride.com
a beautiful postcard from Zack Bazzi. I had sent a package via a request our Carol blogged quite some time ago for needed supplies, warm clothing, etc in Afghanistan. How sweet is that!?
The postcard is a black and white photo of Kabul. You wouldn't believe the majestic, snow-covered mountain range in the distance! Who knew?
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
I remember when you got that big care package together- you must have been so happy to get word back.
:) Nite.
doesn't it?
Sweet Dreams, Bluemoon.
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
to you, Jen
;-)
"Our public servants work for us - we don't work for them. We have an obligation, as citizens of this country, to always remember that - and to never let them forget it." - DeadMessengers
I'm really glad you sent that package over there. Parts of Afghanistan are supposed to be really beautiful, like Switzerland. Iran is another really beautiful country. I really hope we don't destroy it next.
Zack Bazzi is my hero. Did he say how much longer he'll be there?
He really is a fine young man.
Last I heard from him, the beginning of April, he said he would be coming home in a few weeks....so he may be home already.
"The mark of leadership is not to standup when everybody is standing, but rather to actually stand up when no one else is standing" - Pulitzer Prize winning author Samantha Power, introducing Gen Clark
Yes, there are some really beautiful part sof Afghanistan...apparently, some really rugged parts too.
"The mark of leadership is not to standup when everybody is standing, but rather to actually stand up when no one else is standing" - Pulitzer Prize winning author Samantha Power, introducing Gen Clark
http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/
EXCERPT
The Chocolate Chip Cookie is younger than John McCain.
OK, this is an odd one. Apparently, the chocolate chip cookie has not been around since the dawn of time. It did not evolve from anything, nor was it hanging down from the forbidden tree (or whatever it’s called) in the Garden of Eden. It was, in fact, invented in 1937 by Ruth Graves Wakefield of Whitman, Massachusetts, who ran the Toll House Restaurant.
So this classic staple and friend of milk lovers everywhere is actually younger than John McCain.
Alaska - the freaking state - is younger than John McCain.
And, for that matter, so is Hawaii. McCain is older than two of the fifty states.
The true test of our patriotism is whether we will serve our returning heroes as well as they've served us. - Obama
still looks to be the way of the future in terms of jobs, investment, good for the planet....
[ corrupt Texas based ENERGY TRADERS could exploit other places because they were de-regulated ; http://skeptically.org/oil/id4.html Enron searched and found vulnerabilities in other states/nations energy/supply lines to bottleneck and control and gouge as energy traders the power supply systems to become unjustly rich - - if Texas leads the nation in wind power it would be smart to take note that energy/suppliers in other states not to get set up for another round of fleecing when the fruit is ripe on the limb.
excerpt
By 1998, after boarding and capturing England, U.S. power buccaneers, led by Southern, Enron, TXU, Reliant and Entergy had grabbed generating stations and wires on every continent save Antarctica.But not in the United States, not at first. Americans believe in free enterprise, but we prefer cheap electricity and nearly free water, the product of a combination of our tight regulations and government ownership. Almost alone on the planet, the USA stubbornly exempted itself from what the World Bank calls "neo-liberal reform"-and this rankled the new international players who hungered to work the free market con in the USA. The industry lobbyists landed on two beachheads, Texas and California, the only two states with electric systems big enough, and governments Republican enough, to convert to "free" markets.California was the first to fall over the electricity deregulation cliff, but Texas was the first to leap-with a push from its young new governor, George W. Bush. With Texas companies raking it in worldwide, it's not surprising that the rush to deregulate started in the Lone Star State.But there was a technical problem that delayed the ripping down of regulation in Texas. To understand why requires a little lesson in engineering. The power stations of Texas produce three things: electricity, pollution and political donations. And, as always, Texas is biggest in all three. ]
http://www.metaefficient.com/news/3000-megawatts-of-new-us-wind-power-in-2007.html
EXCERPT
The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) today released its First Quarter Wind Power Market Report, announcing that the U.S. wind energy industry is on track to install over 3,000 megawatts (MW) of wind power in 2007, with Texas likely to account for about two thirds of the new installations.
http://www.metaefficient.com/renewable-power/the-largest-wind-farm-in-the-world-horse-hollow.html
EXCERPT
What is the largest wind farm in the world? Well, right now it’s the Horse Hollow Wind Energy Center in Texas. This wind farm has 421 wind turbines that generate a total capacity of 735 megawatts. The wind turbines are spread across 47,000 acres of land in Taylor and Nolan County, Texas.
http://www.metaefficient.com/news/north-americas-largest-solar-electric-plant-in-switched-on.html
EXCERPT
North America’s Largest Solar-Electric Plant Switched On
December 28th, 2007
North America’s largest solar photovoltaic system is now running and generating power — about 30 million kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The 14 megawatt power plant is at the Nellis Air Force Base in the sunny desert of southern Nevada. It’s expected to save about $1 million in power costs annually, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 24,000 tons each year.
The true test of our patriotism is whether we will serve our returning heroes as well as they've served us. - Obama
Just noticed a letter from Geraldine Ferraro in the April 21st issue of Newsweek. (OK, I know I'm running behind here.)
In this letter she states:
"In a June 5, 2003, Chicago Tribune article after Obama was elected to the Senate, he said the same thing beginning with the phrase, "if I were white."
This letter appeared in the print and online version, which you can see here:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/131747/page/2
The Race Card has always been the ace up the sleeve of his campaign. Don't doubt it for a second. This is exactly how these Chicago politicretins play 'the game.'
In any case, and sort of OT, I've just been searching the Chicago Tribune Archives, with search terms specific to this quote and this date. It's turned up nothing more than...nothing. So I've fired off a query to the Tribunes Public Editor, asking who's up to no good...Ms. Ferraro, Newsweek staff, or maybe, the Tribune themselves?
Let's see what I hear back. I'm betting on the Tribune. Any one else want to venture a guess?
Save your time Dorma. They have the top scrubbers on board from the O! camp at the Trib. At all the Tribs. Even our own LA Times is now a member of Sam Zell's "family" of the Tribune Company. Argh!
They had a great couple of Rezko articles back when he was first called by the Grand Jury and before the Trib even thought of an O! endorsement... but they've all been removed. Even through cache they are impossible to find. Only in referencing.
They are inordinately "protective" of the O! "narrative". (Dast I reveal my blatant inherent racism by using the loaded known racist slur of... "Fairy Tale"? Nah... think I'll play it safe and stick with "narrative"}
hope you had a wonderful - and relaxing - trip!
"Our public servants work for us - we don't work for them. We have an obligation, as citizens of this country, to always remember that - and to never let them forget it." - DeadMessengers
We are still "rocking".... feeling the boats movement under our feet on terra firma. Weird effect.
The trip was just too good to be true! I think we gained collectively 5-10 lbs! Back to salads.
It was a week of great beauty and rest, pampered luxury and miles of the sea. Saw about 6 huge sea turtles yesterday!
Good to be home and back online. So much catching up to do though-- business, emails, mail, laundry, life... :)
Get some of the important stuff done so you can spend time with us for returns tonight! The O! gang is chomping at the bit for us Hillary Billies to be marginalized to the point where we can only jump on the O! bandwagon, or be gone! Truth is, I think they'd prefer the gone part as we're part of that yucky old Demcratic Party. You know, the one Wes, and RFK, Jr, and Joe Wilson think is so great? Well, turns out they're part of the yucky old Party, too! We been bamboozled!!
See, the O! Dems, like Kennedy, Kerry, Pelosi, Daschele, etc. who seem like the yucky old part of the Party, well, turns out they're cool and hip and want to change the party, too!! They've been so sneaky about it, but see, that's how change comes! You act like the same old person you've always been, but secretly, you're working behind the scenes to create a **new** improved Democratic Party!! Once again, we been bamboozled!
Anyways, your snarkalicious humor has been sorely missed the last week or so!
So happy your cruise was a success! Wish we could see some video of mr in la performing! Oh, and the sea turtles! Oh, and the food! Wish we could all sail away together if O! becomes the nominee and spend the next 4 years going from place to place, far far away from the disaster that will be president McCain...
Welcome HOME!!
Once in a while you get shown the light, In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
