Hillary ahead of O in May 15 National Gallup Poll! WAKE UP before it's too late!
Submitted by Nick Kelly on May 16, 2008 - 3:52pm.
Barack Obama | Breaking Political News | Gallup Poll | Hillary Clinton | Superdelegates | Democratic politics
If voters in Oregon and Kentucky show their good sense and pay no attention to the pundits, Hillary can still win the nomination; and she can lead the Democratic Party to victory in November! Despite every effort by the Obama campaign and the media to push Hillary out of this race, the people are not flocking to Obama. In fact, more and more of them are turning towards Hillary!
In spite of all his money, all of his endorsements, and all of his "hope", Obama cannot "close the deal" with long-time Democrats.
In spite of all the pressure for her to quit, all the media claims that she cannot win, and all the vicious attacks on her character and her family, according to ABC News, Hillary now holds the lead in the popular vote, and she has also moved ahead of Obama in the most recent daily Gallup Poll.
Gallup Poll Daily interviewing on Thursday, May 15 showed Clinton leading Obama by a few percentage points, after several days of Obama in the lead. The resulting slight narrowing of the race -- returning it to a statistical dead heat -- is typical of the way the contest has gone over the past several months, with neither candidate able to maintain a significant lead among national Democratic voters for very long....
Obama's spat with President Bush Thursday about U.S. diplomacy with Iran may have focused voters' attention on Obama's limited foreign policy credentials and could be a factor. However, media coverage of the campaign is conveying a growing sense of inevitability around Obama getting the nomination, and John Edward's endorsement of Obama on Wednesday seemed to prove it. With this kind of momentum in his favor, one might expect Obama to be stretching his lead over Clinton among national Democrats, not still struggling to surpass her.
According to many experienced political observers (such as Steve and Cokie Roberts) Hillary Clinton would be the stronger candidate against John McCain in Nov.
I sincerely hope that the remaining uncommitted Superdelegates are not asleep at the wheel; and that the DNC will come to its senses and realize that no Democrat will win in November unless we respect the people of Florida and Michigan, and set the "Magic Number" required to nominate at 2,210.
Contact the DNC & tell them how you feel @ http://www.democrats.org/page/s/contact
Mailing Address:
Democratic National Committee
430 S. Capitol St. SE
Washington, DC 20003
Main Phone Number:
202-863-8000
This race is not over.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
Hillary won on May 15, but O had won on May 13 and 14.
Three day moving averages are used in lots of political statistics to help prevent 1 day anomalies from making too big an impact. I picked up, however on what Gallup said about how unusual it is for her to have beaten him even on just one day. We'll see what happens next week. I don't know if they do weekend polls.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
Both the 14th and 15th were days after West Virginia vote. But a single day's worth of polling is only a third of the sample used. That is, if the sample is 900 voters, each day they only sample 300 people, making the single-day margin of error larger. Also, since the three-day sample shows an Obama lead of four points, the other two days must have had Obama in a lead by more than four. This sounds like an anomaly unless it repeats.
I'll get excited if there's a trend.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
Read the bottom of the link, Stan, under the charts. This is a significant result, albeit only for one day thus far.
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
The good news is that Hillary has maintained her lead over McCain, while Obama lost his lead in today's three-day poll.
Stan Davis
Lakewood, CO
Wes Clark -- Make America All It Can Be!
Maybe someone can babysit the MyDD one (and this one) for a day? Stan and I will be at the Colorado State convention. Now I get to sleep for 3 1/2 hours or so. See you here Sunday.
Nick Kelly
Wes Clark could still secure America as a national security candidate.
Arkansas Presidential Election
In Arkansas, John McCain leads Barack Obama by twenty-four percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 57% of the vote while Obama earns 33%.
Arkansas is one of the few states where Hillary Clinton could absolutely make the case that she is more electable. Clinton leads McCain by fourteen percentage points (53% to 39%). However, this is not enough to change the outcome of the Democratic Presidential Nomination process. As Rasmussen Reports noted last week, the Democratic race is effectively over and Obama will be the party’s nominee.