http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/business/2009/04/08/dcl.harlow.soros.intv.cnn  (4:07)

Financial system collapse 4:07
CNNMoney.com's Poppy Harlow talks with billionaire George Soros about why he thinks the financial system collapsed.

SOROS: Right now, with the recapitalization of the banks is not going the way it ought to, because what we are doing, we are keeping a wounded banking system....

HARLOW: Right.

HARLOW: Sure..."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/30096893#30096893  (09:37)

Things are looking up?  
April 7: As President Obama returns home after his trip abroad, the economy is still on the minds of many. It appears the public’s perception of the economy is getting better. Rachel Maddow talks about the findings with Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/30096893#30096893  (09:37)

Here is the Rachel Maddow transcript of this video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30110064/

'The Rachel Maddow Show'for Tuesday, April 7
Read the transcript to the Tuesday show

Guests: Paul Krugman, Mark Danner, Chuck Schumer, Hilda Solis

RACHEL MADDOW, HOST:  "Joining us now is a man who is probably going to tell me to cut the Sally Sunshine routine and get real.  Nobel Prize winning economist and “New York Times” columnist, Paul Krugman.  He‘s is a professor of economics at Princeton University.

Paul, thank you very much for coming back on the show.

PAUL KRUGMAN, NEW YORK TIMES COLUMNIST:  Well, hi.  Good to be on.

MADDOW:  Are you here to kill Sally Sunshine?  Are you here to tell me that people feeling better doesn‘t really matter?

KRUGMAN:  Yes, basically.  I mean, you know, what are you going to say?  It‘s not—look, the trouble is—now, better to have people slightly optimistic, you know?  Sheer panic is not good for anything.  But the fact of the matter is—we have some real, real problems that are not going to go away through self-fulfilling optimism.

You know, one of the little things that‘s been reported now is the IMF has now, International Monetary Fund has upped its estimate of losses on bad loans to $4 trillion.  You know, not so long ago, $1 trillion was considered an exorbitant estimate.

So, the problem is that there‘s a lot of real underlying mistakes that were made that have landed us in this mess.  And the public‘s optimism is good.  People believe that Obama is likely to do the right thing.  That‘s all good, but it‘s not enough.

MADDOW:  Let me ask you about one other thing that looks from a distance like a silver lining that maybe isn‘t.  Last fall on this show, I remember asking you what I should watch for as an indicator rather than the Dow.  The Dow is something that people are emotionally rewarded by, that they cued in to that on a day-to-day basis.  But you suggested that watching the credit markets would be a more realistic thing to watch in terms of understanding the economy.

“New York Times” today ran something that says muted signs of life in the credit market.  Is that a reason for optimism?

KRUGMAN:  Yes.  That‘s certainly better news.  I mean, instead of things getting steadily worse—the Dow is terrible, right?  The stock market, by my count, has predicted six of the last one recoveries, right?  It doesn‘t mean anything.

But the—but these credit markets are a little bit better which still means that they are inconceivably bad by normal standard.  I mean, loans are harder to get, perfectly legitimate business projects can‘t get funded.  But that line has moved a little bit, you know, we are dropping—the overflow pressure of whatever is is dropping a little bit.

So, that‘s good.  That‘s real progress.  Some things are improving—or maybe the right way to say is that things are getting worse more slowly which is a good thing.

MADDOW:  You described though that, essentially, the main problem here is that we did some things really, really, really wrong.  We made huge errors.  And part of what has to happen now is that we not only need to recover, but we need to put things back together in a way that rights those wrongs.

What do you think the priorities should be policy-wise for the administration in fixing stuff that‘s really wrong?

KRUGMAN:  I think that we really need to completely overhaul the way we regulate the financial system.  I mean, there—one of the things—you know, we could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here.  If we get an economic recovery but we don‘t actually fix that system, then the same thing is going to happen to us.

You know, we have—we‘ve been—we spent the last 20 years lurching from bubble to bubble—basically is the description.  And if we don‘t fix it, then, that will happen all over again.  So, we need to really tighten the regulation.  You have to make sure that people who lend money have to keep some stake in the loan so they don‘t sell off the whole thing and then forget about it.

You know, the excesses that got us to this point are ready to do it to us again even if we get out of this current trap.

MADDOW:  Do you feel like what‘s being put together thus far by Treasury Secretary Geithner and by Larry Summers and others doesn‘t take an antagonistic enough approach toward regulations but also doesn‘t set up the incentives correctly?

KRUGMAN:  Yes.  I think that they are—you know, these are smart guys.  Ask them.  They‘ll tell you.

But there is this sense that comes from the administration still that they basically see this as, well, there were a few wrong turns taken, a few things went wrong and we‘ll do some minor patches and we‘ll throw a bunch of money at this to get the thing restarted.

But, yes, I am not hearing both what—you know, what you—what‘s in the public domain and the murmurs I hear that they‘re not really looking for a root-and-branch reform which is disturbing.

MADDOW:  We‘ve heard now that they are not planning—the Treasury Department is delaying the release of the results .

KRUGMAN:  Yes.

MADDOW:  . of the stress tests for the banks.  Do you know what—why that might be?  And do you have an opinion on that?

KRUGMAN:  No.  But, I think, we can say pretty clearly if the stress tests were saying that everything was fine, they probably wouldn‘t be eager to postpone the release of that.

And, you know, this is a problem—because suppose that, you know, one of the versions that we‘re hearing is that they‘ll release some generic information but not information on particular banks.  And, boy, would that be a downer.  That will be saying that basically there is still—you know, what everyone is worried about is we talked about Japan in the ‘90s, keeping the zombie banks still shambling forward.

And there is a lot of feeling that we got our, you know, American zombie banks now on the march.  And this news was not good.  It made that scenario look a little bit more likely.

MADDOW:  Brains.  Brains.

(LAUGHTER)

KRUGMAN:  Now, I mean, what can you say, there‘s a lot of night of the living dead in the way we all talk about the economy these days.

MADDOW:  Yes, wow.  Not heartening but it‘s good to know.

KRUGMAN:  Yes.

MADDOW:  Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist, “New York Times” columnist—thank you for your time tonight.  It‘s always great to have you on the show.

KRUGMAN:  Good to be on..."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/21/despair-over-financial-policy/?scp=1&sq=The%20Geithner%20plan%20has%20now%20been%20leaked%20in%20detail.&st=cse

The Conscience of a Liberal

Despair over financial policy

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/private-public-partnership-details.html

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0904/28/ldt.01.html

LOU DOBBS TONIGHT

Swine Flu Outbreak Spreading; Arlen Specter Switches Political Parties

Aired April 28, 2009 - 19:00 ET

LOU DOBBS, HOST: "The last time any party had a so-called super majority in the Senate was in the 95th Congress, back between 1977 and 1979. During that period, Democrats had 61 seats compared with 38 for the Republicans and one Independent. President Jimmy Carter was in the White House at that time. President Reagan, of course, was elected in 1980..."

If this could happen back in 1980 after Democrats had the White House and such huge majorities in Congress from 1977 to 1979, then it could happen again IF Democrats are not very careful and if they just take it for granted that Republicans are irrelevant!

If someone like Howard Fineman is this critical, then I think it is fair to say that we honestly do not know what will happen with the economy in the future:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/188565/output/print

A Turning Tide?

Obama still has the approval of the people, but the establishment is beginning to mumble that the president may not have what it takes.

Howard Fineman
Newsweek Web Exclusive
Mar 10, 2009 | Updated: 8:37 a.m. ET Mar 10, 2009

Surfer that he is, President Obama should know a riptide when he's in one. The center usually is the safest, most productive place in politics, but perhaps not now, not in a once-in-a-century economic crisis.

Swimming in the middle, he's denounced as a socialist by conservatives, criticized as a polite accommodationist by government-is-the-answer liberals, and increasingly, dismissed as being in over his head by technocrats.

Luckily for Obama, the public still likes and trusts him, at least judging by the latest polls, including NEWSWEEK's. But, in ways both large and small, what's left of the American establishment is taking his measure and, with surprising swiftness, they are finding him lacking.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/188002

They have some reasons to be concerned. I trace them to a central trait of the president's character: he's not really an in-your-face guy. By recent standards—and that includes Bill Clinton as well as George Bush—Obama for the most part is seeking to govern from the left, looking to solidify and rely on his own party more than woo Republicans. And yet he is by temperament judicious, even judicial. He'd have made a fine judge. But we don't need a judge. We need a blunt-spoken coach.

Obama may be mistaking motion for progress, calling signals for a game plan. A busy, industrious overachiever, he likes to check off boxes on a long to-do list. A genial, amenable guy, he likes to appeal to every constituency, or at least not write off any. A beau ideal of Harvard Law, he can't wait to tackle extra-credit answers on the exam.

But there is only one question on this great test of American fate: can he lead us away from plunging into another Depression?

If the establishment still has power, it is a three-sided force, churning from inside the Beltway, from Manhattan-based media and from what remains of corporate America. Much of what they are saying is contradictory, but all of it is focused on the president:

* The $787 billion stimulus, gargantuan as it was, was in fact too small and not aimed clearly enough at only immediate job-creation.

* The $275 billion home-mortgage-refinancing plan, assembled by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, is too complex and indirect.

* The president gave up the moral high ground on spending not so much with the "stim" but with the $400 billion supplemental spending bill, larded as it was with 9,000 earmarks.

* The administration is throwing good money after bad in at least two cases—the sinkhole that is Citigroup (there are many healthy banks) and General Motors (they deserve what they get).

* The failure to call for genuine sacrifice on the part of all Americans, despite the rhetorical claim that everyone would have to "give up" something.

* A willingness to give too much leeway to Congress to handle crucial details, from the stim to the vague promise to "reform" medical care without stating what costs could be cut.

* A 2010 budget that tries to do far too much, with way too rosy predictions on future revenues and growth of the economy. This led those who fear we are about to go over Niagara Falls to deride Obama as a paddler who'd rather redesign the canoe.

* A treasury secretary who has been ridiculed on "Saturday Night Live" and compared to Doogie Howser, Barney Fife and Macaulay Culkin in "Home Alone"—and those are the nice ones.

* A seeming paralysis in the face of the banking crisis: unwilling to nationalize banks, yet unable to figure out how to handle toxic assets in another way—by, say, setting up a "bad bank" catch basin.

* A seeming reluctance to seek punishing prosecutions of the malefactors of the last 15 years—and even considering a plea bargain for Bernie Madoff, the poster thief who stole from charities and Nobel laureates and all the grandparents of Boca. Yes, prosecutors are in charge, but the president is entitled—some would say required—to demand harsh justice.

* The president, known for his eloquence and attention to detail, seemingly unwilling or unable to patiently, carefully explain how the world works—or more important, how it failed. Using FDR's fireside chats as a model, Obama needs to explain the banking system in laymen's terms. An ongoing seminar would be great.

* Obama is no socialist, but critics argue that now is not the time for costly, upfront spending on social engineering in health care, energy or education.

Other than all that, in the eyes of the big shots, he is doing fine. The American people remain on his side, but he has to be careful that the gathering judgment of the Bigs doesn't trickle down to the rest of us.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/188565

That they are NOT becoming irrelevant and that meme should never be taken for granted... although it is flourishing at Kos lately with the cute dinosaur logos.

But disagree with the methodology of most of these analysts.

I don't think the Republican party will have to rebuild and recreate their identity - as some say, to being the "party of ideas" again -- I don't think they will have a new fresh ground to forge that identity from due to Dem complacency or neglect so much as due to Dem naivete...

I think instead, the republicans prefer to infiltrate the opposition party and destroy from within. It's more efficient, speedy, and Machiavellian than the old fashioned way of rebuilding party identity ground up. Change a few haircuts and ties and weave your people seamlessly in to the 'other side'. Call it... I dunno - how bout "bipartisanship"? Hold the hand of your adversary, thereby keep him/her real close while killing off his proposals one by one. Co-opt just enough of the language to make the defection/transformation believable.

All that's required from the other side to let it work is the ubiquitous spirit of "reaching across aisles" and a naive yearning to blend and bend for the sake of compromise*.
(*which is referred to as "triangulation" when anyone named Clinton does same)

Then the whole process gets played out in the media as the war between republicans -- and the war between democrats-- and the war of wars between democrats and republicans... When there is really only the war: between Haves and Have Nots. We the People and the Banksters. Constituents and their elitist, out of touch, no longer "representative" government. Taxpayers ...and treasury.

are itching for a comeback. 10,000 cheering Bob McDonnell at their convention Saturday. I'm working hard for Terry McAuliffe to win the D primary(I wasn't sure about him initially, but the more I've seen of him, the more I really like him--and he is a fighter, for sure.) But I don't know if any D can win the governor's election here in November. or if any D governor can get more D's in the house of delegates, which has so far stymied most of what Mark Warner and Tim Kaine wanted to do.
The General gets it right.
Competence--What a concept!

....be irrelevant as long as the Dems continue to MAKE them relevant.....like stuffing DOD with Reps.....like framing EVERYTHING to please the Reps....no matter if it pissed off the Liberals....like "choice" and DADT and on and on

The country said loud and clear...."NO" to the Reps in 2006 and 2008. They should have been finished......but the Dems keep kow towing to them like they are still in the minority.

Freaking' amazing.

"Misogyny,..is bullet-proof. It’s not merely tolerated, it’s openly celebrated ...Except for a puny consortium of bruised and contused blamers ...even the victims of this oppression embrace it."

succeed domestically or foreign" on CNN was interesting to hear since he tends to lead toward the left and when he seemed to be supportive of Obama during the 2008 election:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0906/02/ec.01.html

CAMPBELL BROWN: NO BIAS, NO BULL

Interview With Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney; Should U.S. Get Tough With Israel?

Aired June 2, 2009 - 20:00 ET

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: "We don't know if Barack Obama's going to succeed domestically or foreign, so I am happy to punt on this question for longer than -- for longer than 125 days of the presidency..."

But I agree with him which is a main premise of this post!

As much as I definitely want Obama to succeed, we honestly cannot tell this early "if Barack Obama's going to succeed domestically or foreign" in my opinion!

IF Obama either does not succeed or does not succeed quickly enough to satisfy most of middle America by 2010 and/or 2012, then Republicans could get back power whether or not they rebuild as a party and whether or not they have ideas of their own!

and Iraq now and that "This is not about George W. Bush anymore" which I would agree with even though I do not think that it is really fair after the huge amount of damage that Bush's extreme Neocon foreign policy has caused:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0906/02/sitroom.03.html

THE SITUATION ROOM

President Obama Honors Reagan Legacy; Search Continues For Air France Plane

Aired June 2, 2009 - 18:00   ET

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: "All right. Let's talk about that and more with our senior political analyst, Gloria Borger; our senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley; and our chief national correspondent, John King, the host of "STATE OF THE UNION."...

JOHN KING, "STATE OF THE UNION" HOST: And I had the Egyptian ambassador to the United States in this weekend. So I was looking at some of the Arabic media before to prepare for that interview. And it's very interesting if you look. This is President Obama's war in Afghanistan; President Obama's war in Iraq. The drone attacks have continued, if not escalated, against al Qaeda up in that never-never land of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

And Obama, in the Arabic press, is blamed for that. This is not about George W. Bush anymore. And yet he got very favorable Arabic press -- Muslim press -- about sitting there next to President Abbas chastising Israel on settlements. They do view him as more of an honest broker -- more even-handed when it comes to average Israelis.

So in terms of the media reports about him right now, it's a mixed bag..."

The wars, along with the economy, are what Obama and the Democratic majority will mainly be judged on and these issues will mostly dominate the news cycles in 2010 and 2012 in my opinion!

Trying to guess who the 2012 Republican nominee will be right now is probably like trying to guess what the weather will be like on Election Day in 2012 right now! 

I really wish that MSNBC would talk much more about relevant issues that are important today instead of being so obsessed with "horse race politics" in 2012 where they have absolutely no idea about what will happen between now and then:

Hardball Video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31091971#31091971  (09:33)

Republicans gear up for 2012
June 3: A Hardball (Mark McKinnon and Ron Kaufman) panel discusses the top candidates that Republican Party can offer for the presidency in 2012.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31091971#31091971  (09:33)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Ed Show Video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31093014#31093014  (07:56)

GOP’s best hope for 2012   
June 3: A political panel (John Feehery, A.B. Stoddard, and Todd Webster) debates the top GOP contenders for the presidency in 2012.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31093014#31093014  (07:56)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rachel Maddow Video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/31094271#31094271  (01:19)

Bush/Cheney 2012?
June 3: GOP in Exile: Rachel Maddow explains how there may be another Bush/Cheney ticket.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/31094271#31094271  (01:19)

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0906/07/sotu.03.html

STATE OF THE UNION WITH JOHN KING

State of the Union: Best Political Team on Television

Aired June 7, 2009 - 11:00 ET

DAVID GERGEN: "At the heart of what this is about is an attempt to shake up the Middle East with the Palestinians and the Israelis, as Jill just said, but it's also to create a new landscape in which we can begin to rebuild a moderate middle with the Muslim world.

To try to change a whole series of issues, whether it be our U.S. relations with Iran and trying to defuse that or whether it be, you know, Iraq, Pakistan, a whole series of things that we're dealing with.

One of the things this president has done, of course, is to raise the bar for his own presidency. It's astonishing how much he is now taking on himself, how much pressure he's putting on himself to deliver within just a few months, maybe by the end of the year, in all sorts of ways. We've never seen this before, John.

GLORIA BORGER: I think this is really risky, to follow on what David said. I mean, five months into this administration, he has taken on everything from peace in the Middle East to reforming health care to reforming energy to now he has got a Supreme Court justice he has got to go through, and the list grows.

This is a risk for him because none of these problems is easy. Presidents before have tried to solve these issues and have had no success. I mean, if you'll recall, the Bush administration decided not to wade into the Mideast process until what...

JOHN KING: Until very late.

BORGER: ... two years, yes? Two or three years, yes?..."

My opinion is that anyone who is sane and who cares for the country should definitely want Obama to succeed with all of these big things that he is taking on so soon!

However IF Obama either does not succeed or IF he does not succeed fast enough to satisy most of middle America, then Democrats could be vulnerable in the 2010 and/or the 2012 elections whether or not the Republicans rebuild and whether or not the GOP offers alternate ideas of their own!

at any time. The question below of "Who knows what's next week?" means to me that anything unexpected can come up at any time which could be a potential game changing event for Obama and the Democratic majority:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0906/08/acd.01.html

ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES

Air France Bodies Found; North Korea Sentences U.S. Journalists; Palin's Party?

Aired June 8, 2009 - 22:00 ET

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: "But I -- you know, what is so striking again here, Anderson, is when President Obama came back from the Middle East, we all thought his -- his agenda was going to be consumed by the greater Middle East. Suddenly, North Korea...

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes. That was last week. This is this week.

GERGEN: That was last week, exactly.

COOPER: Yes. Who knows what's next week?

David Gergen, Christine Ahn, thank you very much..."

This is why I definitely think that so much talk about "Republican irrelevance" which I am hearing a lot of right now is premature and is potentially very dangerous!

Obama and Democrats in my opinion cannot take anything for granted at anytime no matter how good that things may look at any particular moment and regardless of what today's polls might say about Obama and Democrats because we do not know what might happen at anytime in the future which could potentially be a game changing event!

in 'The Ed Show' transcript below!

Here is the main point that Vandehei is making below which I definitely think can happen IF Obama's policies either do not work or IF they do not work fast enough to satisy most of middle America by either 2010 or 2012:

JIM VANDEHEI, “POLITICO”: "That‘s what I think the Republicans are doing. They‘re laying the predicate for 2010 by saying, too much spending, too big deficits, too much government intervention.

If any of those things happen you talked about, not enough jobs being created, not enough economic growth, that message might start to resonate. Right now, it looks like total disarray by the Republican party. That‘s where it could be effective..."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31186681/

'The Ed Show' for Monday, June 8
Read the transcript to the Monday show

Guests: Ralph Neas, David Lazarus, Ken Salazar, Richard Viguerie, Tom Tancredo, Jamal Simmons, Jim Vandehei, Ryan Grim, Robert Reich

ED SCHULTZ, HOST: Earlier in the show, I asked you who you trusted with your health care, insurance companies or the government? More than 2,000 of you responded; eight percent of you trust insurance companies, 92 percent of you trust the government. I think the American people just want to give the government a shot at doing something and bringing in some competition.

For more on that, let‘s bring back our panel, Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, “Politico‘s” Jim Vandehei, former Congressman Tom Tancredo.

Jim, we‘ll start with you. Do you think the president‘s going to be effective going out and ginning up a bunch of support and listening to the American people, to the point where inside the Beltway would get connected? What do you think?

JIM VANDEHEI, “POLITICO”: So far his track record is pretty good on this stuff. When goes out and when he puts his name behind a policy, he tends to get some public support behind it. I think there seems to be a big enough group of moderate Republicans that want to do something on health care, particularly in the Senate. So I think you have all the ingredients to get a health care deal.

I think his bigger problems longer term are some of the things we‘re starting to see in polling. And that is you see a little bit of unease with the public about the deficit, about the growth of spending, the intervention in these bail outs. And if any of those don‘t work and if you don‘t see job creation and you don‘t see real growth, particularly early next year, I think that‘s when he has real problems.

Right now, he‘s very popular. Put his name behind it, it certainly brings him votes...

SCHULTZ: Jim, what if they don‘t create 600,000 jobs in the next three or four months?

VANDEHEI: I don‘t know if it has to be a specific number, but there has to be clear indications that the economy is going to start to grow and that jobs are getting put back in and that they‘re not just jobs that come at a super high cost. The thing about swinging for the fences, if it works, it‘s fantastic. But if it doesn‘t work, it can be disastrous.

And Republicans—you were talking earlier in the program about what are their ideas, what are their ideas. Opposition parties usually do best by simply being the opposition party by benefiting from the majority party‘s failures. That‘s what I think the Republicans are doing. They‘re laying the predicate for 2010 by saying, too much spending, too big deficits, too much government intervention.

If any of those things happen you talked about, not enough jobs being created, not enough economic growth, that message might start to resonate. Right now, it looks like total disarray by the Republican party. That‘s where it could be effective..."

"Because if he does a good job, that's not good enough for this country. That's how bad the country has become:"

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0904/15/lkl.01.html

CNN LARRY KING LIVE

Interview with Donald Trump

Aired April 15, 2009 - 21:00 ET

LARRY KING, CNN ANCHOR: "Why does he (Obama) retain this incredible popularity?

DONALD TRUMP, CEO "TRUMP CASINOS": Well, I think he's sort of a guy that just has a wonderful personality, a good speaker, somebody that people trust. And I also think that the comparison with his predecessor is so different -- it's so huge that it really has made a great impact on people.

I think that he's really doing a nice job in terms of representation of this country. And he represents such a large part of the country.

I mean, to think that a black man was going to be elected president -- I watched television for years where the great political analysts were saying maybe in 50, maybe in 100 years.

Here's a man that not only got elected, I think he's doing a really good job.

Now, the sad part is that he can't just do a good job. He's got to do a great job. Because if he does a good job, that's not good enough for this country. That's how bad the country has become...

KING: There are a lot of great topics. One of them is Barack Obama. In fact, the list at the back of the book on the topics, the number one is, "Barack Obama's election ushers in a different world."

How do you assess him?

TRUMP: Well, I really like him. I think that he's working very hard. He's trying to rebuild our reputation throughout the world. I mean, we really have lost a lot of reputation in the world. The previous administration was a total disaster, a total catastrophe.

And, you know, the world looks at us differently than they used to. And I think he's trying to restore our reputation within the world. And he was handed a pretty bad deck of cards. I mean, he was given a pretty tough situation..."

"Ricks, a war correspondent for the Washington Post thinks that predictions that we have won the war in Iraq are too soon by far, and that we have a long way yet to go with the outcome still uncertain: "A lot of people back here incorrectly think the war is over. What I say in this book is that we may be only halfway through this thing."

This could possibly come back to hurt Obama and the Democratic majority in the 2010 and/or 2012 elections if Thomas Ricks is right and if too many people in middle America are impatient:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/08/thomas-ricks-war-in-iraq_n_165002.html

Thomas Ricks: War In Iraq Is Not Over (VIDEO)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/29083251#29083251  (06:29)

Here is the transcript of the key part of this video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29083534/page/4/

'Meet the Press' transcript for Feb. 8, 2009

MR. DAVID GREGORY: "And we're back and joined by Tom Ricks for his first interview on his new book "The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006 through 2008."

Welcome back to MEET THE PRESS.

MR. TOM RICKS: Thank you.

MR. GREGORY: This was the first book, "Fiasco," about Iraq.  It speaks for itself.  And just to hold it up, this is the new book.  It is "The Gamble." And here was something striking that you wrote from this book, looking forward now to President Obama and his leadership test: "2009 could prove to be a particularly difficult year in the war.  `In many ways, the entire war was a huge gamble, risking America's future power and prestige on a war that, at best, is likely to be inconclusive,' commented Shawn Brimley, a former Canadian infantry officer who became a defense analyst at the Center for a New American Security.  He predicted that Bush's gamble will force Obama into a series of his own gambles and trade-offs--between the war and domestic needs, between Iraq and Afghanistan, between his political base and his military.  In sum, the first year of Obama's war promises to be tougher for America's leaders and military than was the last year of Bush's war." How so?

MR. RICKS: I think a lot of people back here incorrectly think the war is over.  What I say in this book is that we may be only halfway through this thing.  In fact, my favorite line in the book is the last line.  Ambassador Crocker, a very thoughtful diplomat, says that the events for which the Iraq war will be remembered have not yet happened.

MR. GREGORY: That is an amazing statement.  And a lot of people have to be listening to that, thinking, "Well, what's the other shoe to drop, then?"

MR. RICKS: There's a whole lot of shoes out there.  A whole lot of shoes to be thrown, actually.  This, this year we're in now, '09, is going to be, I think, a, a surprisingly tough year.  You've got a series of elections in Iraq.  Meanwhile, you've got American troops declining.  General Odierno says in the book that the really dangerous withdrawals come at the end of this year.  We're doing the easy troop withdrawals now, but down the road you start taking them out of areas that aren't so secure, that aren't so safe, that you're, that you're worried about.  So they're going to be holding national elections in Iraq just when we have fewer troops there.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.

MR. RICKS: And finally, none of the basic problems that the surge was meant to solve have been solved.  All of the basic issues facing Iraq are still there..."

is why he and the Democratic majority cannot take anything for granted. This is also why so much talk about "Republican irrelevance" and how that "The GOP is coming apart at the seams" right now is premature as well as potentially very dangerous!

If Obama's poll numbers keep on falling (especially with Independents), then Republicans can possibly get some free votes in the 2010 and/or 2012 elections by people mainly voting against Obama just like how Democrats got a lot of free votes in the 2006 and 2008 elections by many people mainly voting against Bush:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0906/18/sitroom.01.html

THE SITUATION ROOM

More Protests in Iran

Aired June 18, 2009 - 16:00 ET

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: "Let's move on. We want to turn the economy right now and what President Obama has in store. There are new polls that -- showing he's still very, very popular, but it appears some Americans are starting to have second thoughts about his economic strategies and what they will cost.

We know for sure they will cost a lot of money.

Let's bring in our senior political analyst, Gloria Borger. She's got more on some poll numbers that we're seeing.

Gloria, some of these numbers may be a little bit discouraging for the president.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you know, the good news, Wolf, as you point out, is that the president is still popular, somewhere in all these polls between 56 percent and 63 percent.

Some more good news for him is that 72 percent of the American public says, not your fault. You inherited all of these terrible economic problems.

But there's a but here. And that is, when you ask people about whether the president is going down the right road on the economy and the way he's going to fix it, they have one major concern. And that's really the deficit.

Take a look at this. Thirty-five percent of them said, just boost the economy now, worry about the deficit later. But 58 percent said, wait a minute, you have to worry more about keeping the deficit down. And that's really a problem, Wolf, for this president when he's heading into a health care reform package that could cost a trillion dollars over the next 10 years.

BLITZER: What about his support among the so-called independent voters, who are so critical?

BORGER: Independent voters have been very important to him. This is a president who likes to talk about bipartisanship.

But he's losing support among independents. Take a look at this poll, also from "The Wall Street Journal." In April, independents approved of the job President Obama was doing 60 percent to 31 percent. In June, the approval rate has declined, 46 percent, to 44 percent disapproval. So it dropped from a 2-1 approval rating to just over 50 percent. That's good, but it's still not where it was.

It's heading in the wrong direction, as far as the White House is concerned.

BLITZER: And we have more poll numbers coming up in the next hour. Bill Schneider is taking a closer look, significant numbers.

Thanks very much.

BORGER: Sure..."

Here is the CNN transcript of those "poll numbers coming up in the next hour. Bill Schneider is taking a closer look, significant numbers" that Wolf Blitzer mentioned right above:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0906/18/sitroom.02.html

THE SITUATION ROOM

Massive Display of Mourning; Senator John Kerry Responds to Criticism of President on Iran; U.S. Tracks North Korean Ship; U.S. Guns Flowing into Mexico

Aired June 18, 2009 - 17:00 ET

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: "Let's bring in our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

Bill, you had a chance to meet way high-ranking Israeli official. I know the Israelis are watching this situation in Iran about as closely as anyone. What are you hearing?

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm hearing a mood ominous from the Israeli officials. They compare the situation in the world today with the period before World War II when they said there was a lack of political will in the world to confront a very dangerous threat. The Israeli government believes that the right priority right now for the United States has to be Iran, not the Israeli/Palestinian issue, and they're worried that we're dealing with irrational players in Iran. So that the kind of nuclear deterrence policy that used to work with the Soviet Union may not be effective with Iran.

BLITZER: How much depends, actually, on the final outcome, whatever happens in Iran?

SCHNEIDER: Well, Iranians and Israelis are divided on a number of things. We see that on the division on the streets of Tehran. The Iranians that are united, they say they have evidence they are completely united on two issues. One, they want to destroy Israel. Two, they want nuclear weapons. Both sides in this conflict. No matter who comes out on top after this election, those things are unlikely to change the Israeli beliefs.

BLITZER: Depressing assessment they have. Now doubt about that. Make a turn to the president of the United States now, Bill, and his poll numbers. You're tracking new numbers that are coming in. How is the president's numbers? How are they holding up?

SCHNEIDER: Well, his polls are good. His policies not quite as good.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Three new polls out. Let's see how President Obama is doing. The "New York Times"/CBS News poll, 63 percent job approval. Still high but five points down since April. The Pew Research Center poll, 61 percent. Down two since April. The "Wall Street Journal"/NBC News poll, 56 percent. Down five since April.

PRES. BARACK OBAMA (D), UNITED STATES: We're seeing initial return on a few of these investments.

SCHNEIDER: President Obama is more popular than his policies. Three quarters of Americans like President Obama, but just over half approve of his policies. People think the economic recovery may be slowing down. From February to May, growing numbers of Americans believed the economy was getting better. Now that number has fallen back a bit.

ROBERT GIBBS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I think the American people are rightly anxious and concerned about the economy. Just as the president.

SCHNEIDER: How big a concern is the deficit? Most Americans say the president and congress should worry more about keeping the budget deficit down than about boosting the economy. But it's not Obama's -- 46 percent say the Bush administration is most responsible for the deficit. Only 6 percent blame the Obama administration.

OBAMA: This is hard, and the reason it's hard is because we've accumulated a structural deficit that's going to take a long time.

SCHNEIDER: One thing President Obama has going for him, very little confidence in the opposition. In the Times/CBS poll, 57 percent of the public have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, more than twice at many as Republicans. In the journal NBC poll a 20-point gap between the parties.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: And both of those last polls show opinion that the opinion party right now at an all-time low. Wolf?

BLITZER: Bill Schneider, thank you.

Let's talk about this and more with our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley. The Democratic strategist and former Clinton white house communications director Don Baer and Republican strategist and CNN political contributor Alex Castellanos..."

what can also go wrong for him in the future.  Republicans can very easily become relevant again pretty much by default in 2010 and/or 2012 if too many things go wrong for Obama and for the Democratic majority:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31473792#31473792  (48:33)

Video: Replay the full broadcast  
June 21, 2009: Video: Ali Arouzi; Richard Engel; Benjamin Netanyahu; Sam Nunn; Fred Thompson; Chuck Todd; Nina Easton

MR. DAVID GREGORY:  "Chuck, here's my take, and I want to get your thoughts on it, which is that this president doesn't seem overly concerned about the regime change question.  They don't want to get into the regime change business. They've seen that movie and they don't much like it over the past eight years. In this case they are focused on policy, which is we're going to do business with somebody; the issue here is nuclear weapons.

MR. TODD:  Right..."

right now and what can go wrong for him in the future which is the big picture of things that I think people should be looking at. I never was a huge fan of Gloria Borger in the past but her comments have become much better and she has shown a deeper insight into the big picture of things since the 2008 election in my opinion:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0906/21/sotu.03.html

STATE OF THE UNION WITH JOHN KING

State of the Union: Best Political Team on Television

Aired June 21, 2009 - 11:00 ET

JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: "Welcome back to STATE OF THE UNION. Joining me now here in Washington, senior political analyst David Gergen, senior political analyst Gloria Borger, and congressional correspondent Brianna Keilar.

Let's begin with the pictures we just saw right there. And one of the questions at the moment as we watch this unfold and these protesters are out again in Tehran, which is most significant today after the supreme leader told them do not, no more protests in the streets, they are out again and many around the world are asking, what is the role of the president of the United States, what should he do?

And there's a debate in Congress back and forth about all of this. And the question is, Gloria, so far, is he hitting the right tone as we see this debate play out?

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think there may be some disagreement at this table about that. I think that, at the beginning, the president was very careful not to insert himself in this argument, which he considered and the administration considered to be an internal political argument.

But at this point, if the violence ramps up. And again, John, we don't know if that's going to happen, but if the violence ramps up, I would expect to see a change in the president's tone. He did do an interview this morning as you spoke about earlier on Pakistani television. And I think it was more of the same although he has started to invoke the American civil rights movement.

And so he's talking about the demonstrations in Iran in terms of morality, right and wrong, justice and injustice...

KING: So you have watched this, David, as an adviser to presidents and as a journalist in this community, and now as a senior statesman, as we might say, how is he doing?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it's a tough call. I would concede that. But I do believe that, John, now what we're watching is a Tiananmen Square unfolding in slow motion. And it's sort gradual to Tiananmen Square.

And I don't think the president is restricted to he intervenes or he doesn't intervene. There's a more creative solution and that is for him to organize a concert of nations to stand up together in favor of democracy and human rights and against the violence that we are seeing.

In that sense, it seems to me that the White House has been cautious to a fault. And it's surprising, because after the Cairo speech, one would have thought he was donning the mantle of international leadership. And this passivity, in effect, this caution sort of empties the Cairo speech of some its meaning.

BORGER: Well, I don't think it's necessarily passivity. I mean, I do think that he's being careful and I do think that there is a plan that they are watching very carefully to see if more violence erupts, then I think you take it to a different level.

I think it would be interesting, for example, if they have the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, as a woman, become the de facto spokesperson for the United States given the fact that so many women in Iran are out there on the streets...

BORGER: I will give you this, David. I think it's really interesting because some people say that the mere fact that Barack Obama is there and gave the speech he gave in Cairo actually helped instigate what's going on now right now in Iran. And for him to sit back is a problem. However, you don't hear people saying we want to hear more from Barack Obama. You don't hear Iranians saying we want Barack Obama to insert himself into this, right? It's delicate...

BORGER: Right and by the way, we don't know depending on who ends up running Iran, we don't know whether Mousavi would be any different than Ahmadinejad in terms of negotiating with us...

BORGER: You know, they're hugely conflicted, as they always are, when you cover a health care debate. Which is on the one hand, people want universal health care in this country, they think it's probably a good idea, they would like the government to get involved. On the other hand, they're afraid it is going to affect them. If they like their health care, they don't want that to change, and they're worried about how to pay for it, because they know that the way to pay for health care reform is by raising taxes. And no matter which way you raise taxes, somebody is going be upset about it. So now if the public wants it, they don't want to pay for it and they don't want to lose what they have.

GERGEN: We saw a lot of this same kind of conflicts in the polls back when the Clintons tried to reform health care...

BORGER: Absolutely.

GERGEN: ... a lot of support for it, as Gloria said, but a lot of concerns about it..."

If this trend continues (especially with Independent voters), then Republicans can automatically become relevant and get a lot of votes by default in 2010 and/or 2012 just like how Democrats got a lot of votes by default in 2006 and 2008 because too many voters did not like Bush's policies:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0907/20/sitroom.02.html

THE SITUATION ROOM

Congress Behind Closed Doors; Captured Soldier Admits Being Scared; Special Operations War of Words; Search & Destroy in Heroin Heartland; Losing Patience with the President

Aired July 20, 2009 - 17:00 ET

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: "Is the president's push for massive health care reform hurting his popularity?

There are new signs that a key group of voters may -- repeat may -- be losing patience with the president.

Let's bring in our senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley.

We're talking about a very significant group of voters out there -- Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: We really are. These are the swing voters. And as we all know, swing voters really do determine elections.

We have seen now a number of polls that show the president's overall approval is dropping. It remains, however, in a healthy upper 50 percent range.

But inside those numbers is an interesting story. The president is more popular than his programs. And when it comes to his programs, a good part of the slippage is among Independents.

Look at this latest ABC News/"Washington Post" poll on the specific question of the president's health care reform. Overall, 44 percent disapprove of his handling of reform; 49 percent approve.

Now flip those numbers and you will have what Independents say. Forty-nine percent disapprove. And that disapproval has gone up 19 points since April. Forty-four percent approve of the president's reform.

The question, of course, is why. And a CBS poll suggests, in part, it may be the price tag.

Do you think health care should be fixed now or do you think the country can't afford it?

That's the question.

The answer from Independents is right down the middle -- 48 percent say fix health care now; 46 percent say the country can't afford it.

Two things, though, Wolf. While Independents generally decide elections, they are a famously mercurial bunch and can swing from week to week.

And if you put the president's numbers up against the Republicans, not even a contest. Republicans are stuck in their worst numbers in more than three decades -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Candy Crowley, thanks very much.

Candy will be back in the next hour..."

Here is the link to the Washington Post article along with the "ABC News/"Washington Post" poll mentioned in this article that are discussed in the CNN transcript above:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071902176.html

Poll Shows Obama Slipping on Key Issues
Approval Rating on Health Care Falls Below 50 Percent

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, July 20, 2009

"Heading into a critical period in the debate over health-care reform, public approval of President Obama's stewardship on the issue has dropped below the 50 percent threshold for the first time, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_072009.html

Washington Post-ABC News Poll

The erosion in Obama's overall rating on health care is particularly notable among political independents: While positive in their assessments of his handling of health-care reform at the 100-day mark of his presidency (53 percent approved and 30 percent disapproved), independents now are divided at 44 percent positive and 49 percent negative..."

Again, Republicans can automatically become relevant in 2010 and/or 2012 whether or not they have ideas of their own IF these kind of negative polling trends continue with Obama:  

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/07/obama-continues-to-drop.html

Monday, July 20, 2009

Posted by Tom Jensen at 9:38 AM

control.'

This in my opinion is what makes Republicans relevant regardless of their internal problems, regardless of the crazy behavior of their fringe Limbaugh wing, and regardless of whether or not they have ideas of their own:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0809/Charlie_Cook_Dem_situation_has_slipped_completely_out_of_control.html

August 20, 2009
Categories: Misc.

Charlie Cook: Dem situation has 'slipped completely out of control'

Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.

Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.

"Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats."

Cook scrupulously avoided any mention that Democratic control of the House is in jeopardy but, noting a new Gallup poll showing Congress’ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents, concluded that the post-recess environment could feel considerably different than when Congress left in August.

"We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess."