Hello Everyone:

While it may get very nasty, Obama and Democrats may have no choice but to pass health care reform using the budget reconciliation process without any Republican votes if that is necessary and if Obama and Democratic leaders are willing to take the big risks that will come along with using it!

Here are my 4 points about the benefits and the risks if health care reform is passed using reconciliation:

1) If health care reform is not passed, then the system will stay broken, a lot of people will either not get health care or not get enough health care, Obama will lose a lot of his political capital, and Democrats could be very badly hurt.

A) I agree with Hank Sheinkopf and Errol Louis that Obama "has put a lot of political capital on the line:"

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0909/22/ldt.01.html

LOU DOBBS TONIGHT

Aggressive Agenda; Climate Change Hypocrisy; Another New Plan?; Energy Conservation

Aired September 22, 2009 - 19:00 ET

HANK SHEINKOPF, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: "We're going to have a bill come out, we don't know what the bill's going to look like. We're not close yet. We could be close by the end of the year. The president has put a lot of political capital on the line.

LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: A lot of political capital, ask calling for something to come out of the senate finance committee by Friday? Wow.

ERROL LOUIS, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS: Yeah, sure. That's been the theme all along. He's not only put all his political capital, all his chips on this one number, he's pushing. I think, look, he knows his opponents are counting on delay as a strategy. And he also knows he's got a big system to turn around. And that if he doesn't push it, who's going to? We could easily be looking at this in 2011, 2012, going through yet another iteration of, you know, some markup on a bill that we saw introduced back in 2009. So he's betting that pushing and being the driving force is going to move things along..."

B) Here is a list of how people think that Democrats could be hurt if health care reform is not passed:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/print_friendly.php?ID=ip_20090919_1849

Insiders Poll
Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009
by James A. Barnes, Richard E. Cohen and Peter Bell

Political Insiders Poll

Q: How much will Democrats be helped or hurt in the midterm elections if Congress doesn't pass major health care reform legislation?

Hurt a lot

"This is President Obama's No. 1 priority. And if a Democratic Congress can't pass something, it will make us look incompetent."

"Failing to pass health care legislation will mobilize the Right and significantly hinder Democratic turnout in key races."

"They need to come away with something. Hard to blame failure on the Republicans."

"As we learned in 1994, losing begets losing. If they don't get it done, it will be every member for themselves. And that will be a disaster."

"Longtime Democrats will have a meltdown if it doesn't happen."

"Voters wanted change; they wanted leadership. Instead, it increasingly appears they were being led by a group of chumps."

"Half -- hell, even a quarter -- of a loaf is much better than nothing at all. Nothing at all means not only do we want to socialize medicine, but we're too damn weak and inept to even get it done!"

"If the Democrats cannot make progress toward health care reform, why should the electorate believe they can handle other difficult issues?"

"If you vote for change and nothing happens regarding the most important issue, you will vote for change again."

2) With the possible exceptions of Sen. Olympia Snowe and maybe Sen. Susan Collins (which I think is a long shot), I do not believe that any other Republicans in Congress are serious about trying to work with Obama and the Democratic leadership on health care in a truly bipatisan manner:

A) House Minority Leader John Boehner in my opinion is not serious about bipartisanship on health care:

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/54273

Boehner Says Democrat Health Care Plan Is Dead
Sunday, September 20, 2009
By Terence P. Jeffrey, Editor-in-Chief

(CNSNews.com) - "House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Sunday that the health-care plan that President Barack Obama is pushing in Congress is now dead and will not pass..."

B) Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell in my opinion is much more interested in trying to win a political debate than he is in trying to pass health care reform in a serious and bipartisan manner:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0909/20/sotu.01.html

STATE OF THE UNION WITH JOHN KING

Interview With Barack Obama; Interview with Senator McConnell

Aired September 20, 2009 - 09:00 ET

JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: "Well, I want you to listen, not to the president, but I want you to listen to your own voice. You spoke here in Washington on Friday to a conservative gathering about the health care debate and you voiced quiet confidence about the Republican position. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R), KENTUCKY: We're seeing it today in the debate over health care. Ordinary Americans speaking their minds, dismissed and ridiculed by people in power. The reason they are doing this is clear, because we're winning the argument.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Define "winning" for me. Is winning blocking the Democratic plans and ending this year without a health care reform bill reaching the president's desk?

MCCONNELL: No, winning is stopping and starting over and getting it right. I don't know anybody in my Republican conference in the Senate who's in favor of doing nothing on health care. We obviously have a cost problem and we have an access problem..."

I just do NOT believe the explanation that Sen. McConnell gave to John King about this because it is very clear to me what McConnell's point and intentions were when he said "we're winning the argument."

Here is more evidence about why I definitely do NOT believe McConnell's explanation to John King:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27322.html

McConnell embraces town hall protests

Tags: Congress, Health Care, Mitch McConnell, Town Hall

By ALEX ISENSTADT | 9/18/09 7:10 PM EDT

"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell credited town hall protesters Friday with helping Republicans beat back President Barack Obama’s plans for health care reform..."

C) Obama cannot work with ideologues like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) who are rooting for him to fail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0xrW2KE524&feature=player_embedded

DeMint on "Obama's Waterloo" (0:15)

ThePlumLine
July 20, 2009

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25163.html

President Barack Obama slams Jim DeMint

By CAROL E. LEE | 7/20/09 2:04 PM EDT
Updated: 7/20/09 6:03 PM EDT

"President Obama accused Republicans of playing political games with health care reform Monday, taking aim at South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint for suggesting a defeat on health care could be a “Waterloo” moment for Obama.

“Just the other day, one Republican senator said – and I'm quoting him now – ‘If we’re able to stop Obama on this, it will be his Waterloo. It will break him,’” Obama said, quoting DeMint..."

As far as I am concerned, Obama should not even give Jim DeMint any seat at the health care table!

D) Obama cannot seriously work in a bipartisan manner with any Republicans who either agree with Rush Limbaugh that they want him to fail (like Jim DeMint) and he also cannot work with any Republicans in Congress who fear Rush Limbaugh. Any Republicans who fear Limbaugh will be far more concerned about Limbaugh having them primaried the next time they are on the ballot for working with Obama than they will be about seriously working with Obama:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17860

GOP strategist John Feehery on why Republicans fear voting for the public option

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on August 22, 2009 - 3:33am.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17338

ANALYSIS: Why Bipartisanship is NOT possible with far right wing GOP ideologues!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on February 17, 2009 - 6:21pm.

As long as Rush Limbaugh has so much power over most of the Republican Party and as long as so many elected Republicans fear Limbaugh and keep on apologizing to him, then Obama cannot seriously work with them!

This point explains why many Republicans will not work with Obama on health care in a bipartisan manner today unlike the Democrats who were serious about working with Ronald Reagan on Social Security back in 1983:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/27/AR2006012701429.html

When Partisan Venom Didn't Rule

By David S. Broder
Sunday, January 29, 2006; Page B07

"House Speaker Thomas "Tip" O'Neill with President Ronald Reagan at a bill signing in 1983, (Barry Thumma - AP)"

The evidence in my opinion shows that Obama has seriously tried in good faith to be as bipartisan as possible with Republicans so the lack of bipartisanship on health care reform is mostly NOT his fault:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17823

Why John McCain was dead wrong to say Obama has failed the bipartisan test!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on August 8, 2009 - 10:19am.

3) Because Obama probably cannot get any Republican votes for all of the wrong reasons unless Olympia Snowe is reasonable, then he has no other choice that I can see but to use the budget reconciliation to pass health care if he and the Democratic leadership really want to pass it without any Republican votes:

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/58233-obama-sets-stage-for-using-budget-maneuver-to-pass-health-reform

Obama sets stage for using budget maneuver to pass health reform

By Sam Youngman - 09/10/09 05:19 PM ET

"President Barack Obama this week has been laying the foundation for Senate Democrats to use a controversial budget maneuver to pass healthcare reform.

By offering Republicans olive branches during his address to Congress on Wednesday, Obama has set up a win-win situation. If GOP lawmakers embrace compromise, a healthcare bill would pass Congress easily. But the more likely scenario is that Republicans will continue to oppose Obama’s plan, and the president later this fall will be able to note he tried to strike a deal with the GOP but could not..."

This obviously has Mitch McConnell very upset but he is getting just what he deserves in my opinion:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27441.html

Mitch McConnell: 'Severe' reaction if reconciliation used

Tags: Congress, Health Care Reform, Mitch McConnell, Reconciliation

By ALEX ISENSTADT | 9/22/09 3:07 PM EDT

"Senate Republicans issued a blunt warning to their Democratic colleagues today: Don’t even think about using reconciliation to ram through a health care bill.

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters that Democrats suffer a severe backlash if they used the procedural tactic, which would allow them to pass reform legislation with a bare 51 votes..."

4) Make no mistake about it that even though I think Obama is justified in using the budget reconciliation process to pass health care reform because Republicans are not serious about working with him in a truly bipartisan manner for all of the reasons that I mentioned in point 2, Obama is still taking a very huge political risk if health care reform is quickly passed using the budget reconciliation process:

A) Some big and expensive programs that were passed very quickly such as TARP and the economic stimulus package have had their share of major problems and that could also happen with health care reform:

TARP:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/21/news/economy/tarp_cop_barofsky/?postversion=2009042103

Bailout cop busy on the beat

Neil Barofsky, who is overseeing the $700 billion TARP, says he has 20 criminal probes and calls for changes to prevent fraud.

By Jennifer Liberto, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 21, 2009: 12:29 PM ET

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- "The top cop tracking the government's $700 billion bailout program said Tuesday that he has opened 20 criminal investigations and six audits into whether tax dollars are being pilfered or wasted.

Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program, released a 250-page report detailing a long list of concerns about government efforts to prop up hundreds of banks, Wall Street firms and auto companies.

Barofsky, whose investigations could lead to criminal charges, told CNNMoney.com in an interview that he wants taxpayers to understand where their money is going. At the same time, he wants to alert officials to weaknesses in TARP that could invite corruption or fraud..."

Video: TARP cop on the case

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2009/04/21/news.042109.barofsky.cnnmoney (3:14)

The economic stimulus package (a "road to nowhere" in this example):

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/12/corridor.h/index.html

updated 10:03 p.m. EDT, Thu March 12, 2009

West Virginia's road to nowhere gets stimulus boost

Story Highlights
* Project to build highway through Appalachian Mountains in works for 40 years
* "Corridor H" project still has about 26 years to go
* Project gets $21 million from federal economic stimulus package
* Critics: Traffic too light, project too costly

Read

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/12/corridor.h/index.html#cnnSTCText

VIDEO

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/12/corridor.h/index.html#cnnSTCVideo (2:55)

By Drew Griffin and Steve Turnham
CNN Special Investigations Unit

WARDENSVILLE, West Virginia (CNN) -- "After more than 40 years and $1.5 billion, West Virginia's massive "Corridor H" project is getting another boost from the Obama administration's economic stimulus package, despite questions over whether the project will ever be completed..."

Both TARP and the economic stimulus package were passed very quickly when it was said that there was an emergency. If Obama passes a massive and expensive health care reform package very quickly, without any GOP votes, that has long lasting consequences, and if it is managed as badly as TARP and the economic stimulus package have been managed so far, then that could lead to a huge disaster in my opinion!

B) Obama has already agreed to own and accept full responsibility for any health care legislation that he passes:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/10/60minutes/main5301098.shtml

Sept. 13, 2009

Obama on Health Care Bill: "I Own It"

Tells 60 Minutes in White House Interview He Will Be Ultimately Responsible For Legislation

(CBS) This past week was a crucial one in the young presidency of Barack Obama. With public support for health care reform and his administration in decline, he decided to regain control over the debate with a speech before a joint session of Congress.

With concessions to intransigent Republicans, reinforcement for wavering Democrats, and even a few specifics for skeptical citizens, the president hoped to resuscitate plans for an overhaul of the medical system.

And when 60 Minutes correspondent Steve Kroft spoke with him Friday at the White House he seemed confident he had succeeded.

Transcript of President Obama's 60 Minutes interview

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/13/60minutes/main5307481.shtml?tag=contentMain;contentBody

Also:

http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/obama-on-health-care-bill-i-own-it.php

Obama On Health Care Bill: 'I Own It'

Ben Frumin | September 13, 2009, 9:43AM

The President, in an interview with Steve Kroft that will be broadcast on 60 Minutes at 7 p.m. tonight, says of health reform: "I'm the one who's going to be held responsible. So I have every incentive to get this right."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/10/60minutes/main5301098.shtml

In excerpts released by CBS, Obama also says:

I have no interest in having a bill get passed that fails. That doesn't work. I intend to be president for a while, and once this bill passes, I own it.

Here's the video:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5305734n (0:38)

Obama on 60 Minutes

September 12, 2009 8:41 AM

"President Obama talks to Steve Kroft in his latest interview on "60 Minutes" about why he "owns" his health care reform plan. Sunday, 9/13/09, 7PM ET."

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5305734n (0:38)

I really hope that Obama thinks over VERY carefully any health care program that he passes because he will definitely be putting his Presidency on the line and possibly the future of the entire Democratic Party if he passes health care reform using the budget reconciliation process, if he does not get any Republican votes, and if there are any serious problems with health care that most of middle America are not happy with!

So I think that Obama definitely has the right to pass health care reform using the budget reconciliation process because Republicans are not serious about working with him on health care in a truly bipartisan manner like how Democrats were serious about working with Ronald Reagan on Social Security in a truly bipartisan manner back in 1983 BUT Obama will be held fully responsible for any health care problems!

If there are problems with health care as bad as the AIG bonuses with TARP and if Obama's poll numbers are very low, then he could get a serious primary challenger in 2012 like how Jimmy Carter got in 1980!

However if his health care reform program works, then Obama will be considered to be a hero and he will probably be re-elected as long as there are no serious problems such as an unpopular war in Afghanistan with no end in sight!

Obama and Democratic leaders before using the reconciliation process to pass health care as a last resort should force EVERY member of Congress to vote on if they believe that "health care is a right:"

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17956

Every member of Congress should be forced to vote on if "health care is a right"

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on September 23, 2009 - 1:05am.

That may be able to help get some Republican support for health care if some Republicans have to vote "Yes" on this in order to not lose voters in middle America the next time that they are on the ballot!

I do not know if some version of The Fairness Doctrine can also be passed along with health care using the budget reconciliation process but if it can, then I think that it should be a top priority. That would help to free a lot of elected Republicans from their fear of Rush Limbaugh which could help Obama get more Republican votes in the future:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17308

Call Sen. Debbie Stabenow at 202-224-4822 to help her Fairness Doctrine efforts!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on February 9, 2009 - 2:52pm.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16851#comment-333782

Bringing back The Fairness Doctrine would help to restore...

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on October 28, 2008 - 1:04pm.

Along with health care, trying to reinstate some version of The Fairness Doctrine should be among Obama's top priorities in my opinion because in the short term, he will get very few (if any) Republican votes as long as so many elected Republicans fear Rush Limbaugh and keep on apologizing to him!

In the long term, reinstating some version of The Fairness Doctrine will help to stop the Rush Limbaugh wing of the Republican Party from running the country again like how it did under Bush IF Limbaugh is still in power over most of the GOP when the next Republican is elected President sometime in the future!

Mitch Dworkin

http://mitchdworkin.com/
Check out my new political website!

http://www.securingamerica.com/

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16039
RESOURCES: Speeches, Articles, and Career Highlights to help define Gen. Clark!
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on July 7, 2008 - 2:51pm.

http://www.securingamerica.com/ccn/node/7191
Listen to Gen. Wes Clark fight for Dems on Sean Hannity's radio program: An excellent example for all of us to follow and what we all need to be doing to help fight back against extreme right wing Neocon smear propaganda!