ANALYSIS: Why Obama will probably have a lot of political problems in 2010


Hello Everyone:

Based on all of the evidence I have seen so far, I definitely think that Obama will probably have a lot of political problems in 2010 because he has put himself way out on a limb on so many big issues, he is in very serious danger of losing a lot of his Democratic base, he cannot beat Rush Limbaugh and his media empire in message warfare in an even fight, he will get very little to no Republican support on his major agenda because too many Republicans in Congress either agree with Rush Limbaugh that they want him to fail or they fear Limbaugh too much, and because of his own lack of toughness where he is not feared!

Here is credible documentation of these five political problems that Obama will probably see in 2010:

1) Obama has put himself way out on a limb on so many big issues such as Afghanistan, Iraq, health care, jobs, the economy, deficits, and holding the 9/11 trial in New York where he has very little to no room for any margin of error and where we have very little to no idea about what will happen with these issues by November. If anything serious goes wrong with any one or more of these major issues, then Obama and Democrats will probably be in very serious political trouble basically on a default basis:

A) Even Chris "thrill up my leg" Matthews realizes that this is true and he is very concerned about it:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/34070559#34070559 (08:27)

Has Obama taken too many political risks?
Nov. 20, 2009: After ten months on the job, has President Barack Obama stuck his chin out on too many issues? Atlantic Media’s Ron Brownstein and USA Today’s Susan Page debate.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/34070559#34070559 (08:27)

Here is the Hardball transcript with the key portion of this video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34108791/ns/msnbc_tv-hardball_with_chris_matthews/

'Hardball with Chris Matthews' for Friday, November 20, 2009
Read the transcript to the Friday show

Guests: Mike Huckman, Steven Gillon, Charles Blow, Anne Kornblut, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Judd Gregg, Susan Page, Ron Brownstein

CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST: "Welcome back to HARDBALL. Health care, Afghanistan, terrorist trials up in New York, the economy—after 10 months on the job, has President Obama stuck his chin out too far on too many things? How badly does he need a big win now?

Ron Brownstein is political director for Atlantic Media and Susan Page is Washington bureau chief for “USA Today...”

I look at Geithner. I don‘t think he‘s a great political spokesperson. I look at this decision to put the trial up in New York City. I look at releasing a mammogram report that says we can do better with less testing. And I begin to think this administration is getting almost like one that you would imagine Adlai Stevenson running, highly ethereal, highly intellectual, egghead, not connected to real people and their emotional gut feelings about things..."

B) Afghanistan is going to be very difficult for Obama:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/18253

Michael Ware used the CNN "Magic Map" to show how difficult that Afghanistan is

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on December 30, 2009 - 6:40am.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/18253#comment-354258

Michael Ware's record shows that he "gets it" about Afghanistan

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on December 30, 2009 - 7:21am.

Even Jon Soltz has some very serious concerns about Afghanistan on the VoteVets.org blog:

http://www.vetvoice.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3591

After Detroit Near-Attack, Is Afghan Strategy the Right One?
by: Jon Soltz

Fri Jan 01, 2010 at 11:14:01 AM EST

C) I am very concerned about health care right now because I think that Obama and the Democratic leadership are doing whatever it takes including buying votes to pass any health care bill that they can get 60 Senate votes for in order to avoid a political defeat that will hurt Obama's effectiveness and cost him a lot of his political capital.

I cannot believe Harry Reid's audacity of actually admitting to doing this and where he seemed to mock those Senators who did not get something from him in exchange for their health care votes:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0912/21/acd.01.html

ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES

Democrats Buying Health Care Reform Votes?; Decision Nears in Brazil Custody Battle

Aired December 21, 2009 - 22:00 ET

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: But Democrats didn't just slip things in to win votes to pass health care. They also showed who has got power. Senators with clout added provisions to help themselves back home. Chris Dodd's support for the bill was never in doubt.

SEN. CHRISTOPHER DODD (D), CONNECTICUT: This bill is long overdue and critically important.

BASH: But the Connecticut Democrat, facing a tough reelection battle, buried $100 million in the measure for a new hospital. Other states can compete for it, but he put it in hoping Connecticut gets the hospital.

DODD: This just don't obviously just my state, although my state is very interested.

BASH: And it doesn't stop there. The Democrats' health care bill slaps new taxes on insurance companies, but not for Michigan's Blue Cross/Blue Shield, thanks to the state's Democratic senators, Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, who got an exemption.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is unapologetic and even appeared to mock senators who did not cut deals for themselves.

SEN. HARRY REID (D-NV), MAJORITY LEADER: I don't know if there is a senator that doesn't have something in this bill that was important to them. And if they don't have something in it important to them, then it's -- it doesn't speak well of them.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Dana, that's quite the statement from Harry Reid. And even if this is the way that laws do always get made or that bills get passed, it's rare that the party giving the concessions actually admits it.."

Obama and Harry Reid in my opinion are basically gambling the entire future of health care right now on any bill that they can get 60 Senate votes for and they have very little choice (unless they can use the budget reconciliation process to pass whatever they cannot get 60 Senate votes for) when virtually no Republicans will seriously work with them because they fear being purged out of their party if they do:

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/politics/2009/11/03/limbaugh-palin-urge-right-to-purge-moderates-from-republican-party.html

Limbaugh, Palin Urge Right to Purge Moderates From Republican Party
Posted November 3, 2009

BY Elizabeth Benjamin
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER

"Right wing purists egged on by Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin fought to capture an upstate House seat Monday and electrify their drive to purge moderates from the Republican Party..."

David Gergen is usually a little extra generous when he comments on Obama in my opinion and even he referred to Obama's health care reform program as "a lot of experiments" and he also gave Obama a "B-minus on substance:"

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0912/23/acd.01.html

ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES

Final Vote Nears on Senate Health Care Bill; Grading Obama's First Year

Aired December 23, 2009 - 22:00 ET

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: "David, would you give him as high a grade on this as the president appears to be giving himself?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I would certainly give him high marks on the politics of this and political leadership. He sometimes led from behind, not out front.

But Barack Obama has done something no other president has ever done. That is, he has gotten, you know, universal access through the House and he's about to get it through the Senate. And, very likely, he is going to have a bill.

It is on the substance where think that I would give him lower marks. Some of the savings that are promised here seem almost fantastical. They are -- they are fictional. It is just hard to believe the Congress will have the courage to do what it is promising to do.

And, beyond that, bending the cost curve, getting the cost of health care under control, I think most of us think that that is simply not here in a serious way, a lot of experiments.

But I must tell you, my wife and I are proud parents of a daughter, Katherine, who is a primary care doctor here in Massachusetts. And I can just tell you that, in her medical school class, most of the students could not go into primary care because they did not have scholarship help. They have built up all these debts. They have wanted to go that. It is a more idealistic role in many ways, but they simply couldn't afford to do it.

And this bill does not seriously address that issue.

HILL: And that is one of the things we talked about with Sanjay just a little bit earlier.

GERGEN: Exactly.

HILL: So, David, overall if you had to put a letter grade on health care reform for the president, what would it be?

GERGEN: A-minus on politics, B-minus on substance..."

When I see Senate votes openly being bought and sold and David Gergen giving Obama a "B-minus on substance," then I am VERY concerned about the future of health care. Obama will own ANY health care bill that he passes and it will be a huge disaster for the country and for the Democratic Party if Obama passes a bad health care bill (and that is especially the case when there will be no Republican votes for it)!

D) I am also very concerned when I see the deal that The White House made with the pharmaceutical industry (both Joe Johns and David Gergen are overall credible political analysts in my opinion):

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17784#comment-354011

Joe Johns and David Gergen gave this very alarming health care report:

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on December 20, 2009 - 11:14am.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0912/16/acd.01.html

ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES

Are Drug Companies Winning Health Care Reform Battle?; Palin vs. Schwarzenegger

Aired December 16, 2009 - 22:00 ET

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: "Here is another number for you, pharmaceutical lobbying, more than $20 million, that is the amount, through October, that the pharmaceutical industry spent on lobbying in just this year. Now, that is the third most of any industry. You could call it money well spent, because that is -- because, earlier this year, they cut a deal, or some would call it an understanding, with the White House and with Senate Democrats, and the drug companies agreed to put up $80 billion over 10 years to support the health care overhaul.

In return, the White House would not give Americans widespread access to those cheaper drugs.

So, is this a cut-and-dried flip-flop on President Obama's part?

Joe Johns tonight is "Keeping Them Honest."

Joe, it really looks -- it look like that. I mean, it looks like the White House made a deal, and Americans are going to pay more for drugs because of that deal.

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Anderson, it looks like that, but you have to remember it is still a tradeoff and this is Washington, because if they can get a bill passed and sent to the president, there will still be something they can point out and say, we passed a form of national health care reform intended to bring down costs and improve choices...

COOPER: We want to bring in senior political analyst David Gergen for tonight's 360 insider briefing. David, I mean, is this just the dirty reality of politics? I mean, you see -- we showed you President Obama back in October 2008 very clearly saying, look, we're going to say no thanks -- thanks, but no thanks, to drug companies. Basically, we're going to going to be able to get medicines from Canada for -- for half the price. We're going to open things up.

That is clearly now -- the White House not just kind of had a hands-off policy on this thing. I mean, they campaigned to kill this idea in the Senate that Dorgan supported. Is this just the way politics works?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm afraid it is, Anderson.

And it is what made -- it's what's made Americans so cynical about politics, and it's particularly cynical to -- increasingly cynical about this health care bill, and why opinion is souring on it.

Look, what happened here basically was the White House was calling in various industries and saying, what deal can we cut with you? What will you contribute to the savings? And we will cut a deal for that you will be good enough, if you then agree not to campaign against health care reform..."

Obama is way out on a limb on Afghanistan, health care, and on so many other issues that he could be a political time bomb just waiting to explode if he messes up on just any one or more of these big issues!

2) Obama is in very serious danger of losing a lot of his Democratic base and he has already lost a lot of his base of African-American supporters:

A) Obama is in very serious danger of losing his base over health care:

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/19581

Howard Dean is perfectly positioned to primary Obama in 2012.

By: fflambeau Thursday December 17, 2009 8:49 pm

When Howard Dean is publicly saying on MSNBC that he will "not vigorously" support Obama's Re-election Bid, then you know that Obama is having some very big problems with his base:

http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?v=GdaG2GZuQu

Dean: I Won't 'Vigorously' Support Obama's Re-election Bid (0:26)

Submitted By: MarkF
Uploaded: 17 hours ago
Date Aired: December 17, 2009

"On Morning Joe, Howard Dean says he will support Pres. Obama's re-election bid "not vigorously."

Here is the full Morning Joe video where Howard Dean starts talking about how he will support Obama's re-election bid "not vigorously" at about 11:58 into this video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/34461661#34461661 (15:22)

Dean: Health bill can still be saved
Dec. 17: Former DNC chairman Howard Dean joins the Morning Joe gang to reiterate his belief that the health reform bill taking shape in the Senate further empowers private insurers.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/34461661#34461661 (15:22)

B) Obama is also in very serious danger of losing his liberal base if he does not withdraw our troops from Afghanistan by the timetable that he set and I very seriously doubt that Obama will do it if conditions on the ground do not allow it:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/vp/34247828#34247828 (06:18)

Right-wing comes out swinging against Obama
Dec. 2: The Daily Kos’ Markos Moulitsas discusses the right wing media’s attempt to negatively spin President Barack Obama’s speech on Afghanistan.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/vp/34247828#34247828 (06:18)

Here is the Countdown transcript with the key point of this video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34257367/ns/msnbc_tv-countdown_with_keith_olbermann/

'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Read the transcript to the Wednesday show

Guests: Chris Hayes, Ezra Klein, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Musto

KEITH OLBERMANN, HOST: "The answers to the kind of criticism and examination that this policy, now that it's revealed in some detail, really needs; did the president answer any of those points last night, to your satisfaction?

MARKOS MOULITSAS, DAILY KOS: Not to my satisfaction. But I think there's a very clear division within my world, my political side of the political divide, the base. People who want out of Iraq and people who want to give Obama the benefit of the doubt and try to fix this mess created by Bush and Cheney. I think it's almost a 50/50 split.

I think, though, that we can all agree that Obama said in a year we're going to start drawing down, and we're going to be watching carefully. We'll hold Obama to that. Because we do need to get out. If we can't do it now, if the next best option is within a year, I'll take it. But it better happen.

OLBERMANN: Markos Moulitsas of the Daily Kos, kind of a shot across the bow. I'll second that. Great thanks..."

C) Obama has also lost a lot of his African-American supporters:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/12/29/race.relations.poll/index.html

Poll: Obama still very popular among African-Americans, but 'thrill is gone'

December 29, 2009 1:10 p.m. EST

"But when asked how they personally feel about Obama's presidency, only 42 percent of black respondents say they're thrilled, with nearly half of those questioned saying they are happy but not thrilled.

The 42 percent who are thrilled is down from 61 percent in January, when Obama was inaugurated..."

All of this is true while the far right wing GOP tea party activist base is very hungry to take back power from Obama and the Democrats (this poll is coming from Markos Moulitsas so it definitely cannot be viewed as being biased toward the Republicans):

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34490422/ns/meet_the_press/page/5/

'Meet the Press' transcript for Dec. 20, 2009

David Axelrod, Howard Dean, Joe Scarborough, Markos Moulitsas, Ed Gillespie, Tavis Smiley

MR. MARKOS MOULITSAS: "And according to my own polling, we use an independent pollster, 86 percent of Republicans plan on turning out or are likely to turn out. Only 56 percent of Democrats are--similarly believe they're going to turn out or likely to turn out. Only 32 percent of African-Americans, only 41 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds. We have numbers like that, we're going to get killed in 2010. So the Democrats have to start paying attention to the base, have to start probably picking some fights. I mean, maybe regulatory reform could be a way to do that.

MR. DAVID GREGORY: All right, thank you all. We're going to leave it there..."

If Obama keeps on losing his base of supporters and if the Neocon GOP activists are hungry enough to get back power, then 2010 and possibly 2012 could be huge political disasters for Obama and Democrats!

3) All of the evidence I have seen so far shows that Obama and the Democrats cannot beat Rush Limbaugh and his massive media empire in message warfare in an even fight on a level playing field:

A) Here is full documentation to back up this point (also look at the comments below the post):

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17836

ANALYSIS: Why Obama is losing the health care message war to the other side

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on August 13, 2009 - 6:28am.

B) Polls show "Democrats losing health care PR fight" and Obama is the leader of the Democratic Party:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/1-2-cross-missouri-democratic.html?wprss=thefix

Polling shows Democrats losing health care PR fight

"1. Democrats are losing the public relations fight over the health care overhaul currently being debated in Congress, according to data in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll..."

By Chris Cillizza | December 16, 2009; 5:29 AM ET

C) When Obama won the 2008 election, it was NOT in an even fight on a level playing field. The economic crisis, Bush's unpopularity, and several other lucky political breaks that Obama got helped him to win:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16930

ANALYSIS: Why John McCain lost the 2008 election and how he may have done better

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on November 6, 2008 - 11:03pm.

Right now, Obama owns every issue and fair or unfair, he does not have Bush to kick around any more:

http://campbellbrown.blogs.cnn.com/2009/12/05/the-era-of-blame-bush-for-obama-is-over/

December 5, 2009

The era of 'blame Bush' for Obama is over

Posted: 02:50 PM ET

Campbell Brown Blog - Staff
Filed under: Commentary

By Roland S. Martin
CNN Political Contributor

D) Obama has about as much of a chance at beating Rush Limbaugh in message warfare as I would of beating Michael Jordan in a one-on-one basketball game. Unfortunately, Limbaugh's comment is right:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,184342,00.html

Transcript: Rush Limbaugh on 'Your World'

Thursday, February 09, 2006

RUSH LIMBAUGH, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: "Neil, there is a new media out there today that doesn't let the left get away with defining the news, defining the circumstances, defining personalities and so forth.

And they haven't learned how to deal with it. They haven't learned how to deal with people like me, the problems they think FOX News causes, and everybody else. They are still in their 30-year-old playbook, in which they think they still — all they have to do is, you know, portray somebody they want to portray them, and the American people will see it, swallow it, and like it..."

E) Proof that Limbaugh's comment above is correct in my opinion is that Obama automatically lost his fights with both Limbaugh and FOX News by starting fights with them that he could not or would not finish:

I was really glad to see Obama start this fight with Rush Limbaugh:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17270

ANALYSIS: Obama and Democrats are being smart by attacking Rush Limbaugh now!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on February 1, 2009 - 12:49am.

However I was very disappointed that Obama lost this fight by not finishing it. You do not pick a fight with somebody like Rush Limbaugh unless you can finish it or else you will automatically lose it!

The same thing is also true about FOX News and especially when the evening programming at MSNBC really is just as biased toward the far left as FOX News is biased toward the far right:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/10/27/obama-adviser-tells-cnn-fox-biased-wont-comment-msnbc

Obama Advisor Tells CNN Fox Is Biased, Won't Comment On MSNBC

By Noel Sheppard (Bio | Archive)
October 27, 2009 - 22:50 ET

http://hotair.com/archives/2009/10/27/pathetic-jarrett-backtracks-from-fox-news-bias-claim-when-asked-about-msnbc/

Pathetic: Jarrett backtracks from Fox News bias claim when asked about MSNBC

posted at 6:26 pm on October 27, 2009 by Allahpundit

Campbell Brown of CNN in my opinion made Valerie Jarrett look VERY inconsistent in this video when Jarrett would not admit to the obvious bias at MSNBC when she was complaining about the bias at FOX News:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFX6hVFlqW4

Jarrett: 'Of Course' Fox News is Biased (2:12)

tpmtv
October 28, 2009

"more at cnn.com, October 27, 2009"

Bill O'Reilly went to town over Campbell Brown's interview with Valerie Jarrett and his guest David Zurawick (who I think is a serious journalist) was correct to agree with O'Reilly in my opinion:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMpDK7jDGWc

O'Reilly Hosts David Zurawik to Discuss War on Fox! (5:14)

johnnydollar01
October 28, 2009

"Interesting because Bill has been critical of Mr Z in the past, but they seemed to get along famously here."

F) None of this should be a surprise because I predicted it many times over going back to 2007:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16555

Mark Halperin explained why Obama is having problems with GOP attacks right now!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on September 15, 2008 - 10:58am.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16555#comment-328296

Obama not understanding the GOP attack machine & how to fight it

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on September 15, 2008 - 11:05am.

4) Obama will get very little to no Republican support on his major agenda because too many Republicans in Congress either agree with Rush Limbaugh that they want him to fail or they fear Limbaugh too much to seriously work with him:

A) Rush Limbaugh is openly rooting for Obama to fail:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17327

Rush Limbaugh saying "I Hope the Stimulus Package Fails" should be nationalized!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on February 14, 2009 - 8:37am.

B) Extreme Republican ideologues in Congress like Jim DeMint are openly rooting for Obama to fail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHV4nDS501Y

Sen. Jim DeMint calls defeating Obama like Waterloo (0:14)

wmj08kms
July 20, 2009

"If we're able to stop Obama on [health care reform], it will be his Waterloo. It will break him and we will show that we can, along with the American people, begin to push those freedom solutions that work in every area of our society."

C) Obama is getting hurt very badly when the aides to Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the highest elected Republican in the country, are literally calling Rush Limbaugh to report to him what Sen. McConnell is doing to try and obstruct Obama's health care reform legislation:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/18215

Mitch McConnell's aides called Rush Limbaugh "to explain their tactics" to him!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on December 16, 2009 - 5:08am.

D) Most of the other Republicans in Congress fear Rush Limbaugh and being purged out of the GOP to seriously work with Obama or to vote for any of his major legislation:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17860

GOP strategist John Feehery on why Republicans fear voting for the public option

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on August 22, 2009 - 3:33am.

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/politics/2009/11/03/limbaugh-palin-urge-right-to-purge-moderates-from-republican-party.html

Limbaugh, Palin Urge Right to Purge Moderates From Republican Party
Posted November 3, 2009

BY Elizabeth Benjamin
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER

http://www.dccc.org/content/sorry

I'm Sorry, Rush

"Republicans who've dared to criticize Rush only to beg for his forgiveness..."

E) Any kind of serious Bipartisanship or negotiating with these kind of GOP ideologues is NOT possible:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17338

ANALYSIS: Why Bipartisanship is NOT possible with far right wing GOP ideologues!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on February 17, 2009 - 6:21pm.

As long as so many Republicans in Congress fear Rush Limbaugh and keep on apologizing to him, then Obama will not get their support or their votes on any of his major legislation. It is that plain and simple!

5) Obama in my opinion is not tough enough where he is feared:

A) In this Morning Joe video, Savannah Guthrie said that it is not Obama's style to be a skull cracker at about 00:28 into this video, Joe Scarborough talks about how Obama is not feared by Harry Reid, members of Congress, and the Generals who ask for more troops at about 02:00 into the video, and Savannah Guthrie talks about Obama scolding the bankers as a disappointed parent at about 03:14 into the video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/34428497#34428497 (04:47)

Will Congress' lack of fear of Obama sink health care?
Dec. 15: NBC News' Savannah Guthrie discusses whether Obama's style of leadership will result in getting Democrats to agree on health care legislation.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/34428497#34428497 (04:47)

B) These two articles are relevant in my opinion:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27057.html

Who's afraid of Barack Obama?

By BEN SMITH | 9/13/09 7:02 AM EST

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20091207/pl_politico/30268

Who's in charge: Generals or Obama?

POLITICO

David Rogers David Rogers – Sun Dec 6, 10:34 pm ET

C) A.B. Stoddard of "The Hill" got this exactly right about Obama on The Ed Show in my opinion:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34642765/ns/msnbc_tv-the_ed_show/

'The Ed Show' for Wednesday, December 30th, 2009
Read the transcript to the Wednesday show

Guests: Eric Massa, Roy Sekoff, Wendell Potter, Chris Van Hollen, Jack Rice, A.B. Stoddard, Karen Hanretty, Lizz Winstead

ED SCHULTZ, HOST: "A.B. Stoddard, I just read a statement a moment ago from White House communications Dan Pfeiffer, who was obviously responding to former Vice President Dick Cheney. This is somewhat new territory. Do you think the White House is going to be doing more of this? As we turn to the midterms, and, of course, with the story of terrorism and the attempt in the last week, it looks like a lot of political battle lines are being strong. Here‘s the White House jumping in. What do you think?

A.B. STODDARD, “THE HILL”: I think the White House is learning that they need to be a little more bold. It‘s not the Obama style to be bold. It‘s not the Obama style to be angry. His response, which was initially, Ed, I think, disastrous before he came out yesterday and acknowledged systemic failures, really was late and it was measured. It did not match the outrage that Americans were feeling over these severe lapses in the system, and how insecure we all felt as a result of this story.

It took Dick Cheney to get the White House all fired up. But I think the Democratic party has their first test here. They have not governed in the age of terror, post-9/11. This is their test. They may fail it if the American public deems that the response has been inadequate in this administration. I think what you‘re going to have to see in future days is some tough talk, Ed. I know it‘s not Obama‘s style.

His policies might be tough. He may have increased drone attacks in Pakistan. He might have helped coordinate these air strikes in Yemen on al Qaeda strongholds there. He might be doing what it takes, tripling down in Afghanistan. But does he talk about it enough? That‘s what Americans are used to. And I think, actually, it poses a real political problem for him if he doesn‘t start talking about like the Bush administration talked all those years..."

In conclusion, I agree with Thomas Friedman that Obama's Presidency has a lot of uncertainty where we do not know what is going to happen, I agree with Tom Davis that "what the Democrats and the president needs to look at is, where are they going to be from a year from now, not where they are today. What his grade is today really is kind of irrelevant," and I agree with Ed Rendell that "a year in politics is light years:"

A) Hardball video and transcript of Thomas Friedman about uncertainty:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/34264489#34264489 (08:24)

Opposing the Afghan surge
Dec. 3: Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Tom Friedman explains why he’s opposed to President Barack Obama sending 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/34264489#34264489 (08:24)

Here is the transcript with the key points of this video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34275701/ns/msnbc_tv-hardball_with_chris_matthews/

'Hardball with Chris Matthews' for Thursday, December 3rd, 2009
Read the transcript to the Thursday show

Guests: Matt Nesto, Jim Cramer, Chris Cillizza, April Ryan, Thomas Friedman, Mayor Ed Powlowski, John Feehery, Steve McMahon

CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST: "Let me ask you about this jobs summit today. You attended it... Did anything get done that is useful to the people? Or is this going to be sort of pilloried as a public relations stunt?

THOMAS FRIEDMAN, “THE NEW YORK TIMES”: I‘ll tell you, it was useful for me. I have a feeling that it was useful for the president. I can‘t say. Because there was one overriding message that came through there. I don‘t know how the president will exactly receive it. But the message, Chris, was uncertainty. You had business people, you had community leaders, you had union people, really from all over the country. It was a real cross section.

Certainly, one of the big takeaways—it certainly wasn‘t the only one—but one of the big takeaways is we don‘t know anything. We don‘t know what health care is going to be. We don‘t know what the price of carbon is going to be. We don‘t know what financial regulation is going to be. We don‘t know what happens when the stimulus runs out.

And there‘s so much uncertainty now overhanging middle and small business today that it is very hard for people to plan, and really make big bets that will make big employment opportunities. That would—that was my take-away..."

B) Transcript of Tom Davis asking "Where's unemployment going to be from a year from now? Where's Afghanistan going to be a year from now?"

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0912/24/sitroom.01.html

THE SITUATION ROOM

Senate Passes Health Care Reform Bill; Mortgage Executives' Fat Checks; Father and Son Reunited in Brazil

Aired December 24, 2009 - 16:00 ET

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: "What strikes me is that he actually sounds like former President Bush when he talks about, "I'm making some tough, unpopular decisions." We heard that all the time from President Bush. But he gave himself a B-plus when he had that interview with Oprah Winfrey.

Does he overstate the case? Is it premature?

TOM DAVIS, PRESIDENT AND CEO, REPUBLICAN MAIN STREET PARTNERSHIP: Well, governing is a tough business. And I think what the Democrats and the president needs to look at is, where are they going to be from a year from now, not where they are today. What his grade is today really is kind of irrelevant.

Where's unemployment going to be from a year from now? Where's Afghanistan going to be a year from now? And I think health care will be more of a footnote. It's something the Democrats had to get through. They have to pass something. It's a box they need to check. But at the end of the day, it's what's happening on the ground.

MALVEAUX: Tom Davis, Donna Brazile, thank you. Happy holidays. Merry Christmas..."

C) Transcript of Ed Rendell saying that "a year in politics is light years:"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33752275/ns/meet_the_press/page/2/

'Meet the Press' transcript for Nov. 8, 2009

GOV. ED RENDELL (D-PA): "Look at the Virginia exit poll, David; 24 percent said they came out to vote against President Obama, 20 percent said they came out to vote for him, but 60 percent, almost 60 percent said they voted on state issues. Governors? elections are about leadership. That's how people make their decisions. Congressional elections reflect more what's going on in Washington. And the one big one, the one mega one, Democrats won a seat that they haven't held in 100 years. So I'm not sure you can draw any conclusions, but I am sure of one thing: a year in politics is light years, is light years..."

I definitely want Obama to succeed for the good of the country but it looks to me like he has a lot of serious challenges to deal with and overcome in what I think will be a very difficult and uncertain 2010!

I really wish I could give Obama this sound advice that could help him. In the short term, Obama needs to make Republicans in Congress cast some very tough votes where they will either upset their hard core activist base of supporters or the moderate and Independent voters who they represent:

1) Most of the hard core activist base of the Rush Limbaugh wing of the GOP do NOT believe that health care is a right that all people are entitled to while most of the country does believe that it is:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17956

Every member of Congress should be forced to vote on if "health care is a right"

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on September 23, 2009 - 1:05am.

B) Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and the tea party activists are heroes to most of the hard core activist base of the Rush Limbaugh wing of the GOP. All Republicans in Congress should be forced to vote on whether they agree with Republican strategist Brad Blakeman that the Republican party should NOT redefine itself with the Tea Party-goers and that Rep. Michele Bachmann "is out of the mainstream:"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34728351/ns/msnbc_tv-the_ed_show/

'The Ed Show' for Tuesday, January 5th, 2010
Read the transcript to the Tuesday show

Guests: Evan Kohlmann, Tim Walz, A.B. Stoddard, George Miller, Rep. Jan Schakowsky, Rep. Ron Paul, John Feehery, Brad Blakeman, Joan Walsh

ED SCHULTZ, HOST: "Brad, you‘re a pretty level-headed guy. Do you think that the Republican party should redefine itself with the Tea Party-goers? What do you think?

BRAD BLAKEMAN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Absolutely not. I think we‘re a party of principle. We‘re a party of platform. We‘re a party of candidates who have mainstream ideas and views. Those are the people who are going to get elected and take away Democratic seats in 2010.

SCHULTZ: Where does that leave Michele Bachmann?

BLAKEMAN: Michele Bachmann is a Republican, the same—and answerable to her district. Remember, she represents one Congressional district. We don‘t define the Democrats by the Dennis Kuciniches of the world or the Alan Graysons of the world, down in Florida. By any definition, he is a wing-nut. We shouldn‘t be painting either the Republican or Democratic party by one or two colorful individuals. Let‘s look at them in their totality...

SCHULTZ: Now do you believe that Michele Bachmann is correct when she says the Republicans should redefine their party with the Tea Party-goers?

BLAKEMAN: I told you, no. She‘s not correct. But she‘s one Congress-person.

SCHULTZ: Is she out of the mainstream of the Republican party?

BLAKEMAN: She is out of the mainstream..."

Here is The Ed Show video link to watch this very interesting dialogue:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34715783#34715783 (05:40)

GOP overtaken by tea partiers?
Jan. 5: Hot seat: Republican strategist Brad Blakeman and an Ed Show panel including Salon.com’s Joan Walsh and Republican strategist John Feehery discuss whether the Tea Party movement will become the future of the Republican Party.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34715783#34715783 (05:40)

C) Republicans in Congress should definitely be forced to vote "Yes" or "No" as to whether the many high profile Republicans who apologized to Rush Limbaugh were right or if their initial criticisms of Limbaugh were correct:

http://www.dccc.org/content/sorry

I'm Sorry, Rush

"Republicans who've dared to criticize Rush only to beg for his forgiveness..."

If the Republicans in Congress vote against their hard core activist base (which includes Rush Limbaugh, Michele Bachmann, and the Tea Party-goers), then they will risk being primaried and losing the support of their base. If the Republicans vote in favor of this fringe base, then they will risk losing the moderate and Independent voters who they represent. This is a clear lose/lose situation for them!

In the long term, Obama needs to try and force through a back door version of The Fairness Doctrine while he probably still has the votes that he needs in Congress to do it (it could probably be put in a bill that funds the troops which would make it very hard for the Republicans to vote against). A back door version of The Fairness Doctrine is the one thing that Rush Limbaugh and his followers really and truly fear and it is how Obama may be able to help liberate enough Republicans in Congress from their fear of Limbaugh so that he can seriously work with them:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/10583

Limbaugh & Hannity react to Democrats trying to bring back the Fairness Doctrine

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 18, 2007 - 2:51pm.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123508978035028163.html

OPINION / FEBRUARY 20, 2009.

Mr. President, Keep the Airwaves Free

As a former law professor, surely you understand the Bill of Rights.

By RUSH LIMBAUGH

Dear President Obama:

"I have a straightforward question, which I hope you will answer in a straightforward way: Is it your intention to censor talk radio through a variety of contrivances, such as "local content," "diversity of ownership," and "public interest" rules -- all of which are designed to appeal to populist sentiments but, as you know, are the death knell of talk radio and the AM band?

You have singled me out directly, admonishing members of Congress not to listen to my show..."

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17308

Call Sen. Debbie Stabenow at 202-224-4822 to help her Fairness Doctrine efforts!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on February 9, 2009 - 2:52pm.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16851#comment-333782

Bringing back The Fairness Doctrine would help to restore...

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on October 28, 2008 - 1:04pm.

Even if a back door version of The Fairness Doctrine cannot be passed at the end of the day, it will still take a lot of time, money, and effort for Rush Limbaugh and his wing of the Republican Party to try and stop it from happening while that issue is tied up in the courts for a long time. Every minute and every dollar that Limbaugh and his followers spend trying to fight a back door version of The Fairness Doctrine in the courts (which they will have to put first in order for Limbaugh's radio program and many others to survive) is a minute and a dollar that they are NOT able to use to interfere with Obama and his agenda!

I always like to point out some realistic solutions to try and help solve the problems that I mention!

Mitch Dworkin

http://mitchdworkin.com/
Check out my political website!

http://www.securingamerica.com/

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16039
RESOURCES: Speeches, Articles, and Career Highlights to help define Gen. Clark!
Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on July 7, 2008 - 2:51pm.

http://www.securingamerica.com/ccn/node/7191
Listen to Gen. Wes Clark fight for Dems on Sean Hannity's radio program: An excellent example for all of us to follow and what we all need to be doing to help fight back against extreme right wing Neocon smear propaganda!

Submitted by donjo on January 4, 2010 - 10:43am.

Now I’m Really Getting Pissed Off
by David Michael Green

"Hey did you hear about the iconic African-American guy who plays golf, and whose relationship with the public is in a free-fall lately?

No, as a matter of fact – I’m not talking about Tiger Woods.

You know, I’ve really been trying not to write an article every other week about all the things I don’t like about Barack Obama.

But the little prick is making it very hard.

Like any good progressive, I’ve gone from admiration to hope to disappointment to anger when it comes to this president. Now I’m fast getting to rage.

How much rage? I find myself thinking that the thing I want most from the 2010 elections is for his party to get absolutely clobbered, even if that means a repeat of 1994. And that what I most want from 2012 is for him to be utterly humiliated, even if that means President Palin at the helm. That much rage.

Did this clown really say on national television that “I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of you know, fat cat bankers on Wall Street”?!?!

Really, Barack? So, like, my question is: Then why the hell did you help out a bunch of fat cat bankers on Wall Street?!?! Why the hell did you surround yourself with nothing but Robert Rubin proteges in all the key economic positions in your government? Why did you allow them to open a Washington branch of Goldman Sachs in the West Wing? Why have your policies been tailored to helping Wall Street bankers, rather than the other 300 million of us, who just happen to be suffering badly right now?

Are you freakin’ kidding me??? What’s up with the passive president routine, anyhow, Fool? You hold the most powerful position in the world. Or maybe Rahm forgot to mention that to you. Or maybe the fat cat bankers don’t actually let do that whole decision-making thing often enough that it would actually matter…

But, really, are you going to spend the next three interminable years perfecting your whiney victim persona? I don’t really think I could bear that. Hearing you complain about how rough it all is, when you have vastly more power than any of us to fix it? Please. Not that.

Are you going to tell us that “I did not run for office to be shovel-feeding the military-industrial complex”? But what – they’re just so darned pushy?

“…I did not run for office to continue George Bush’s valiant effort at shredding the Bill of Rights. It’s just that those government-limiting rules are so darned pesky.”

“…I did not run for office to dump a ton of taxpayer money into the coffers of health insurance companies. It’s just that they asked so nicely.”

“…I did not run for office to block equality for gay Americans. I just never got around to doing anything about it.”

“…I did not run for office to turn Afghanistan into Vietnam. I just didn’t want to say no to all the nice generals asking for more troops.”

Here’s a guy who was supposed to actually do something with his presidency, and he’s turned into the skinny little geek on Cell Block D who gets passed around like a rag doll for the pleasure of all the fellas with the tattoos there. He’s being punked by John Boehner, for chrisakes. He’s being rolled by the likes of Joe Lieberman. He calls a come-to-Jesus meeting with Wall Street bank CEOs, and half of them literally phone it in. Everyone from Bibi Netanyahu to the Japanese prime minister to sundry Iranian mullahs is stomping all over Mr. Happy.

And he doesn’t even seem to realize it.

Did you see him tell Oprah that he gave himself “a good solid B+” for his first year in office? And that it will be an A, if he gets his healthcare legislation passed?

Somebody please pick me up and set me back on my chair, wouldya?

I am seriously beginning to worry that this cat is delusional. He has lopped off twenty full points from his job approval rating in less than a year’s time, falling now below fifty percent. His party, once dominant in generic congressional election poll questions, is today almost even with hated Republicans in the public mind. Last month, Obama’s inverted coattails (don’t even ask where those go) got two Democrats clobbered running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. The otherwise obnoxious George F. Will (very) rightly points out that in Kentucky, “a Republican candidate succeeded in nationalizing a state Senate race. Hugely outspent in a district in which Democrats have a lopsided registration advantage, the Republican won by 12 points a seat in Frankfort by running against Washington”. Wow. Obama is now wrecking state senate races! What’s next? Will local Republican candidates for sheriff win office just by opposing the embarrassment in the White House who chooses abysmal policies and then refuses to fight for them, lest he should ruffle any feathers?

“For Democrats, the red flags are flying at full mast," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart in a recent AP article. "What we don’t know for certain is: Have we reached a bottoming-out point?”

Au contraire, Peter. Au contraire. I think anyone more sentient than a newborn amoeba can answer that question. The first thing to note is that the economy is not coming back anytime soon, if it comes back at all. Unless, of course, you’re a fat cat Wall Street banker. Then you’re just fine, because the Bush-Obama administration took care of you quite nicely, thanks very much. The rest of us poor slobs out here in real-world land, on the other hand, got a “jobs summit”.

I can’t even begin to describe how insulting Obama conducting a “jobs summit” is to me, or what an unbelievably ham-fisted piece of public relations that was for the White House, which is increasingly showing itself not just to be sickeningly regressive, but also fully inept. I think I speak for a whole lot of Americans when I say that, one year into his stewardship over a destroyed economy that was actually atomizing for at least six months before inauguration day, I don’t want my president sitting around a table, running a dog-and-pony show, pretending to kick around ideas on how to generate jobs. I wanted him to have those ideas, himself, before he was inaugurated. I wanted those to be real ideas, that produce real jobs for real Americans who are really hurting. I wanted that to be, and still be, the be-all and end-all of his presidency, not some distant fourth-place priority, behind healthcare and the White House dog selection process. And, especially not some fourth-place priority behind jive healthcare reform.

Which brings us to the second answer to Mr. Hart’s question. If Democrats think they’ll be screwed next November because of unemployment, wait till Congress passes this healthcare monstrosity. Or doesn’t. At this point, either way they’re gonna get slammed for it, and rightly so.

If they don’t pass anything, they will be seen as unable to govern. This perception will be quite true because they will have failed to pass a major piece of legislation, despite having 60-40 majorities in both houses of Congress and control of the presidency. It doesn’t get much better than that for a governing party in the American system. But it will be true in an even more profound sense, because the whole priority structure of the Democratic agenda is wrong. Sure, people want healthcare reform right now (especially if it were to miraculously also have the virtue of being authentic healthcare reform), but what they really want, overwhelmingly, is jobs. This choice of priorities is the equivalent of, say, invading Iraq when you’ve been attacked by people in Afghanistan. Surely no president would be that stupid, right? Surely any political party would realize the costs of having priorities so divorced from those of the voters, right?

On the other hand, the Democrats and their hapless president are probably in worse shape if they actually pass this legislation. Especially now that it’s been stripped of nearly every real progressive reform imaginable, it has become an incredibly stupid bill, from the political perspective. It will force people who can’t afford it to spend a giant amount of money on lousy insurance, without any real choice to hold down costs, and it will fund this by hacking away at the Medicare budget. No wonder an insurance industry lobbyist broadcast an email last week declaring: “We WIN. Administered by private insurance companies. No government funding. No government insurance competitor.”

But here’s a little riddle that any sixth-grader can easily figure out, although it seems to have eluded the brain trust at the White House: If insurance companies are winning big-time, then who is doing the losing? Something tells me that if Democrats are dumb enough to pass their own legislation, voters will provide them the answer to that puzzle in November of 2010, and then again two years later. What could be stupider than saddling thirty-five million Americans with a new monthly bill that will probably represent the second or third biggest item in their budget, in exchange for crappy private sector health insurance that is unlikely to pay out when needed, and wastes a third of the dollars paid in premiums on bureaucracy and profits anyhow? Slapping big fines on them if they don’t pony up for the insurance, perhaps? Yep, that’s in there too.

This bill alone could mobilize legions of people to go to the polls and vote for whichever party didn’t do it, and I’m pretty sure the GOP won’t be shy about reminding Americans who that is. I mean, if Democrats were searching for legislation less likely to win them votes, why didn’t they just bring back slavery or the debtor’s prison? Why not come out for pedophilia? It would have been so much more efficient. At least they wouldn’t have spent the last year looking like idiotic bunglers who, in addition to sponsoring really unpopular ideas, also inadvertently left their testicles at the coat check and have spent the last thirty years trying to find their way back to the gala.

Ah, but wait! If you order now, there’s more!

As I understand it, the bill doesn’t even actually force insurance companies to cover people, at least in the sense that they can charge prohibitive amounts to those with whatever they define as pre-existing conditions. You know, like the young woman who had a policy but died when she was denied cancer treatment because she had a bad case of acne as a teenager.

This will be a total train wreck for the Democratic Party. Already, the public opposes the plan by a ratio of 47 to 32 percent. And they haven’t even been handed the bill for it yet. And they haven’t even had their premiums skyrocket yet. And they haven’t even seen insurance corporation executives buy small countries for use as second homes with the increased compensation they will be floating in. And they haven’t even found out what this does to their Medicare yet. And they haven’t even seen the impact on the national debt yet. And they haven’t even realized that the ‘good’ parts of the bill don’t go into effect until FOUR YEARS from now.

You know, elite Republicans may be sociopaths, and they may be lower on the moral totem pole than your basic cannibal, but they’re not stupid. I bet they’re salivating at the idea that this thing passes. I bet they’d even have Olympia Snowe vote for it if necessary, just to put it over the top. They must be laughing their asses off at this gift. All they have to do is oppose it right down the line, then say “Told ya so!” at the next election, squashing the pathetic Demognats, one after the next. Hey, even if worse comes to worse and the thing eventually becomes popular, they can always wait a decade or two and become champions of the new publically beloved healthcare system – just like they did for Medicare, Social Security, civil rights, etc.

This is President Nothingburger’s great gift to America, along with doing nothing about jobs, doing nothing about the Middle East, nothing about civil liberties, nothing about civil rights, and now doing nothing at Copenhagen. Regarding the latter, the world is literally on fire, and he jets in, gives a speech haranguing the delegates that “Now is not the time for talk, now is the time for action”, then splits even before the vote in order to beat the snowstorm headed to the east coast that might delay him getting home to his comfy bed. I’m not kidding. You can’t make this shit up, man.

This guy is killing me, though at the same time I still can’t quite figure him out.
Here’s what I get: This president is a corporate hack. Like Bush or Clinton, he has constituents, alright – but you and I are not on that particular list.

Here’s what I don’t get: He is radically tanking, at a moment when people no longer have patience for those kind of politics anymore.

Here’s what I get: This president has his fingers in many pies, as he needs to, ranging from global warming to economic implosion to two wars abroad to massive federal debt.
Here’s what I don’t get: Why does he bother to do these things in a way that pleases no one, and only dramatically undercuts his own political standing? Why does he refuse to make anyone his enemy, thus making everyone his enemy?

Is he just massively deluded? I wouldn’t have thought so, but watching the guy give himself a very good grade for 2009 – straight face and all – during the same year he’s lost twenty points off his job approval rating, and at a moment when even blacks and gays are deserting him, you know, you have to wonder.

Is he happy just to be a one-term president – just to say he’s been there and done that, and then sell some more books – even if he is reviled as one of the worst in history?
Maybe. But what about the rest of us?

The rest of us, indeed. It’s been quite some time since anyone in the White House ever cared about that sorry pack of rabble.

Obama looked like he could’ve been something different. He ain’t.

So this is it, folks.

Change you can believe in?

More like bullshit you can take a bath in, if you ask me.”

"I try to avoid hyperbole, but I think Obama is possibly the most dangerous and destructive president we have ever had."—Nat Hentoff

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 4, 2010 - 11:48am.

which is much worse than Obama just losing his base of supporters in my opinion:

http://www.thechrismatthewsshow.com/html/transcript/index.php?selected=1&id=197

The Chris Matthews Show
December 26-27, 2009

CHRIS MATTHEWS, host: "Your thoughts?

Ms. KATHLEEN PARKER (Columnist, The Washington Post): I'm hearing a couple of very interesting things. One shocker is that a—some Democrats are thinking of jumping ship and changing parties.

MATTHEWS: You got some names?

Ms. PARKER: That's all I—that's all I can say about that.

MATTHEWS: Do...

Ms. PARKER: The other thing is that...

MATTHEWS: What part of the country?

Ms. PARKER: I can't say. One more thing—in fact, I'm probably in big trouble already.

Mr. HOWARD FINEMAN (Newsweek Senior Washington Correspondent): In the continental United States?

Ms. PARKER: Yeah! The other thing is that these—some of the senators, these senators who've been...

MATTHEWS: Arlen Specter going to flip back?

Ms. PARKER: Yeah, there you go. No, but these people have been obstructionist on the health care...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. PARKER: ...bill are going to have a lot of trouble, their seats are in danger, they're going to have a lot of trouble getting money...

MATTHEWS: OK. OK.

Ms. PARKER: ...from their donors..."

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 5, 2010 - 9:37am.

David Corn in this article confirms several of the key points that I made in this post: 

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/04/will-disappointment-on-the-left-hurt-obama-and-dems-in-2010/ 



David Corn

Columnist

Will Disappointment on the Left Hurt Obama and Dems in 2010?

Posted: 01/4/10

Filed Under: Democrats, Barack Obama, Obama Administration, Deep Background, 2010 Elections

286 Comments  + 
Join the discussion »

Over the past few weeks -- as I traveled abroad, attended holiday parties, and went through my appointed rounds -- I kept encountering people who posed the same question: "What's happened with Obama?" These were liberal Democrats, and they feel, depending on the person, somewhat, partially, or fully betrayed by the president whom they helped elect with their small donations and/or volunteer sweat. These people were truly troubled, some by the expansion of the Afghanistan war, some by the emasculation of the health care reform legislation, some by President Obama's embrace of corporate-world advisers. (This means you, Larry Summers.) I know that my sampling is rather unscientific. But none of the worriers are bloggers or professional progressives who make their living fretting about a presidential drift to the center. They merely are foot-soldiers (or ex-foot soldiers) in Obama's base, and now they find themselves quite perplexed and in desperate need of explanation. (I'm getting a steady stream of e-mails from readers expressing the same concerns.)

Obama's approval ratings have been falling steadily in the past few months. He appears to be having a tough time retaining the support of independents, who tell pollsters they are nervous about his health care reform initiative. Democrats as a group tend to be supportive of Obama and his efforts. Consequently, a White House following conventional rules would put its effort into winning back indies in time for next year's mid-term congressional elections. After all, if the Dems take a beating, it will be Obama's agenda that will suffer.

Yet Obama and his aides should not ignore the spreading anxiety among his liberal fans. The folks who I've talked with -- in conversations that often feel like counseling sessions -- have said they are unlikely to hit the pavement for Obama and the D's in 2010. They felt empowered by Obama's campaign in 2008; they feel alienated from politics today. Disenchantment is not what you want in your base when you're heading toward a tough mid-term election. Given that the congressional races are likely to be low-turnout affairs, any lack of passion on the Democratic side will enhance the advantage the Republicans will probably enjoy due to extended joblessness. (You want to scare yourself? Read thisAP article on the economy, which notes that it could take at least five years to bring the unemployment rate to a "normal 5 or 6 percent." By the way, another must-read is a Washington Post front-pager that notes there was zero net job creation in the just-ended decade, compared to 20 to 38 percent net job growth in each of the previous six decades.)

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/12/26/business/AP-US-Economy-Decade-Ahead.html?_r=2&scp=3&sq=wages%20workers%20decades&st=cse

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/01/AR2010010101196.html

And despite all the campaign hype, there isn't much of an Obama Nation that the White House can mobilize for the coming elections. As Micah Sifry recently noted (picking up on a theme I poked at in the first months of the Obama presidency):

http://techpresident.com/blog-entry/the-obama-disconnect

This is the big story of 2009, if you ask me, the meta-story of what did, and didn't happen, in the first year of Obama's administration. The people who voted for him weren't organized in any kind of new or powerful way, and the special interests -- banks, energy companies, health interests, car-makers, the military-industrial complex -- sat first at the table and wrote the menu. Myth met reality, and came up wanting.

So what's Obama to do? A former Clinton White House aide who has helped the Obama crew points out that the president's big problem has been message development. He has let the health care muddle and his Afghanistan musing eclipse the progressive accomplishments of his first year in office: ending torture, withdrawing from Iraq, devoting $80 billion in stimulus money to clean-energy development, placing Sonia Sotomayor on the Supreme Court, moving toward a Gitmo shutdown, increasing government transparency, declaring global warming gases to be pollution that must be regulated, even while cutting an unsatisfying deal at the Copenhagen climate summit. (Slate's Jacob Weisberg argues that Obama has revived liberalism.)

http://www.slate.com/id/2236708/

There may be something to this. But the issue is more than mismanaged PR. In recent weeks, Obama has not looked as if he's fighting for anything. Sure, he's working damn hard to get a health care measure through the obstacle-ridden Senate. Yet in this narrative, he's bogged down with the negotiating ins and outs. To those people who don't follow every twist and turn, it doesn't look as if Obama is blasting away at powerful interests and recalcitrant Republicans. He seems to be playing chess in a mud pit. That may win him what he believes is the best bill possible. But such a victory could prove temporary if his natural supporters are not jazzed by it and the GOPers come roaring back to undo or block the reforms enacted.

Obama needs to triumph in the legislative combat; he also needs to keep his troops together and energized. His hawkish decision on Afghanistan makes that all the more challenging. Yet he might still have a chance, if he picks the right targets and throws a punch or two. That may not be his style -- and you should never advise a politician to adopt a course that is not in sync with his or her temperament. But as Obama handles a variety of complex matters -- some with no easy answers -- he will not whip up enthusiasm for his party by playing it cool, as he navigates the nuances of this or that policy dispute. And disappointment is not very empowering.

You can follow David Corn's postings and media appearances via Twitter.

http://twitter.com/davidcorndc

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 5, 2010 - 8:04pm.

terrorism and of national security" according to Howard Fineman in the Hardball transcript and video below and I agree with him.  Howard Fineman is a liberal commentator (he is a regular guest on Countdown with Keith Olbermann) so I do not think that he can be accused of being biased against Obama! 

In my opinion, this is even more evidence to prove point 3 in this post that "All of the evidence I have seen so far shows that Obama and the Democrats cannot beat Rush Limbaugh and his massive media empire in message warfare in an even fight on a level playing field:" 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34706625/ns/msnbc_tv-hardball_with_chris_matthews/

'Hardball with Chris Matthews' for Monday, January 4th, 2010
Read the transcript to the Monday show

Guests: Charlie Cook, Howard Fineman, Matt Nesto, Eugene Robinson, Michael Smerconish, Richard Engel, Bobby Ghosh, Anne Kornblut, Jonathan Martin

HOWARD FINEMAN, NBC CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT:  "I think the bigger news in the last week or two is that I think the president has lost control of the narrative of the fight against terrorism and of national security. 

CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST:  Was he hurt by being in Hawaii, that simple thing? 

FINEMAN:  I don‘t think he was hurt by—I don‘t think he was hurt by being in Hawaii specifically.  I think some of the early comments by administration officials were off the mark..." 

Here is the Hardball video of this interview where Howard Fineman said this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/34693427#34693427  (08:46)


Saving their seats
Jan. 4: Newsweek’s Howard Fineman and NBC political analyst Charlie Cook discuss the outlook for Democrats following the midterm elections.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/34693427#34693427  (08:46)

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 6, 2010 - 6:26am.

come back to hurt him politically in my opinion. The Republicans are already using this against him in this YouTube video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmNdV0PSRy4

Obama Pledges to Put Health Care Negotiations on C-SPAN, White House Enemies List (2:36)

RepublicanSenators
October 27, 2009

"Republican senators and members of the media highlight President Obama's failure to live up to his pledge to conduct health care negotiations in full view of the public. Senators and media members also highlight the White Houses alarming tendency to seek to punish those who dont share its views."

Here is the YouTube video of what candidate Obama promised about how that health care negotiations would be on C-SPAN:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Api4fUziAnI&feature=player_embedded

obama C span (1:30)

ironmill
August 10, 2009

"Video of Obama stating he will televise the Health care Debate on C-Span. Since he has not kept his promise, most of the disorder at town hall meetings can be attributed to his failure to keep his campaign promises"

These broken campaign promises about transparency are making me very concerned about the future of health care, what it will be, and how it will be paid for:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1001/05/sitroom.02.html

THE SITUATION ROOM

Critics: Strip State Dept. of Big Job; Complicated Maze of Congressional Panels; Dems Plot Next Health Reform Moves; Google Launches Phone War; Arctic Blast Moving In

Aired January 5, 2010 - 17:00 ET

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Dana, sorry for interrupting, but I want to get to this question that our White House correspondent Dan Lothian asked the White House press secretary Robert Gibbs earlier in the day, because it directly affects Congress. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: C-Span television is requesting leaders in Congress to open up the debate to their cameras. I know this is something the president talked about on the campaign trail. Is this something he supports, will be pushing for?

ROBERT GIBBS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I've not seen that letter. I know the president's going to begin some discussions later today on health care in order to try to iron out the differences that remain between the House and Senate bill, and try to get something hopefully to his desk quite quickly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: You remember, Dana, during the campaign, the president said no back-room deals going on, everything will be in front of the those C-Span cameras. Is that likely or unlikely?

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: At this point I think it's fair to say it's unlikely and it's very interesting Wolf. The house Democratic leaders were asked about that letter from C-Span's head Brian Lamb asking for televised coverage. They punted pretty much the way Robert Gibbs did over at the White House. They simply insisted there has been transparency in the process, televised committee hears, legislation on is on the website, but Republicans are pouncing on this, saying they want Democrats to honor this request by C-Span, because just as you said, they see a political opening here, because they see this as a perfect way to prove that Washington hasn't changed in the year that since President Obama has been in office, because it was he himself who promised that things would be open and on television. One thing I think was fair to say odd, the speaker Nancy Pelosi was asked about the president's campaign promise, and she responded by just saying, well, there are a number of things he swore on the campaign trail. Wolf?

BLITZER: Dana Bash will be busy over these next few weeks. We'll see if it gets resolved before or after the state of the union address..."

Here is more information about this story that was also on CNN:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1001/05/ctn.01.html

CNN TONIGHT

Major Security Failures; Health Care Divide; Afghanistan's Intel Failures; Deadly Deep Freeze; California Education Overhaul

Aired January 5, 2010 - 19:00 ET

JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: "And the president is also being targeted today over promises to keep the health care debate open and transparent. The television network C-SPAN is pleading with Democratic leaders to let them broadcast the negotiations, but Democrats are likely to do most everything behind closed doors.

Lawmakers are at the White House tonight meeting with the president, hashing out the differences between the House and the Senate health care bills and our Dana Bash is on Capitol Hill, following it all. Dana, first tell us what do you know so far about the negotiations?

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jessica, look, as you can see from the empty hallway that goes very far behind me, Congress is not here. They're still officially in recess. However, earlier today, just down this hall where the House Speaker's office is, there were initial conversations just between House Democratic leaders. They're trying to figure out actually plot strategy for how to meld the health care bill, their health care bill with the Senate's, and remember, this is Democrats negotiating with Democrats, but there are a lot of differences in these bills.

In fact the House Democrats, their aides, they made about an 11- page document that anybody can access. It's public. It's on the House Speaker's Web site, Speaker.gov, which lists a lot of the differences and they really range from how they're going to pay for health care, what kind of taxes to impose for reform and things that really affect consumers like what kind of government assistance people will get to pay for health care reform and who will get it and how much -- Jessica.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), HOUSE SPEAKER: Well I don't know who you're talking about, but what I will say that they...

(END VIDEO CLIP)

YELLIN: (INAUDIBLE) to actually broadcast the health care debate on C-SPAN. So what are lawmakers' reaction to C-SPAN's call to televise it?

BASH: There was a very ironic visual today up here, Jessica. You remember times like this covering Capitol Hill. House Democrats came out of the closed door meeting right down there and they punted on questions about whether or not cameras would eventually be allowed into formal or even informal negotiations between House and Senate Democrats.

That was officially requested today by Brian Lamb, the head of C- SPAN and Democrats both in the House and the Senate frankly they wouldn't answer the question. Instead, they gave some talking points about all of the reasons they believe this has been a transparent process when it comes to health care, all of the committee hearings that were public, the legislation that has been online, but as you can imagine, and as I know you know, Republicans, they're having none of it.

They believe that this is a great political issue for them, because they think that this is proof that in the year since President Obama has been in the White House, he's promised to change the way Washington works, that it hasn't come to fruition, because as you said, he did promise in the campaign trail that things would be open, and C-SPAN cameras would be in meetings like this.

YELLIN: OK, so on that question, Speaker Pelosi I know was asked about the president's promise. She had an interesting response, didn't she?

BASH: Yes, I think odd is probably the best way to phrase it. I was standing right next to her and somebody did ask, well, what about the president's campaign promise to open negotiations like this in C- SPAN? And she said, quote, "Well, there are a number of things he swore on the campaign trail." It was unclear what she meant. It sounded like a little bit of a jab at the president, but look, I got to tell you, if it was a jab at the president, there are a lot of liberals who are probably applauding her right now, because there are a lot of members of the president's base when it comes to health care and other issues who think that he is not standing up for them.

YELLIN: All right. Thanks so much Dana -- Dana Bash on Capitol Hill.

BASH: Thank you..."

Here is the Politico article link about this story:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/0110/CSPANs_Lamb_to_Congress_Open_health_care_debate.html

January 05, 2010
Categories: Networks.

C-SPAN's Lamb to Congress: Open health care debate

"C-SPAN chief executive Brian Lamb, who has long fought for more television access in Congress, is now asking House and Senate leadership to allow cameras inside while members hammer out differences between the two health care bills..."

Submitted by VaDem on January 6, 2010 - 7:56am.

Obama made a lot of promises while on the campaign trail. The particular one about CSPAN televising the health care debate was made right in my backyard and he was lying through his teeth the entire time he was speaking.

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 7, 2010 - 7:04am.

I am sick and tired of seeing those in the media (like Jack Cafferty of CNN) who were deep in the tank for Obama giving him a near free ride to both the nomination and to The White House complaining about him right now:

A) Jack Cafferty BEFORE Obama was elected:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/15054

Jack Cafferty of CNN, an Obama apologist, did a hit job on Hillary on March 18!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on March 19, 2008 - 4:13am.

B) Jack Cafferty AFTER Obama was elected:

http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/06/secret-negotiations-to-reconcile-two-health-care-bills/

January 6, 2010

Secret negotiations to reconcile two health care bills?

Posted: 04:00 PM ET

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

"How dare they.

President Obama and Democratic leaders have decided to bypass a formal House and Senate conference to reconcile the two health care bills. Instead - White House and Democratic leaders will hold informal - another word for secret - negotiations... meant to shut Republicans and the public out of the process.

What a far cry from the election when then-candidate Obama pledged to quote "broadcast health care negotiations on C-Span so that the American people can see what the choices are."

President Obama hasn't even made a token effort to keep his campaign promises of more openness and transparency in government. It was all just another lie told for political expediency..."

What Jack Cafferty, Keith Olbermann, and others like them in the media are complaining about now are the tough questions that they should have asked Obama over two years ago BEFORE he was nominated and elected. As far as I am concerned, these people have NO legitimate right to complain about Obama right now in my very strong opinion:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/17709

Keith Olbermann and many others in the media CANNOT complain about Obama now!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on June 22, 2009 - 1:42pm.

Just look at how deep in the tank that so many people in the media were for Obama:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/15744#comment-309677

There is NO question in my opinion of anti-Hillary media bias...

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on June 9, 2008 - 6:07pm.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16968

Joe Scarborough, Mark Halperin & Lou Dobbs on the bias and failures of the media

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on November 14, 2008 - 10:16pm.

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/16746

Aaron Brown said “serious news at risk” in 2006 & Bernard Shaw confirmed it now!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on October 12, 2008 - 8:04am.

Here is a funny but sad parody video credibly documenting this blatant pro-Obama media bias:

http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?RsrcID=1728

The Obama Love Shack: That's Where It's At (04:28)

Submitted By: DannyG
Uploaded: 1 years ago
Date Aired: July 22, 2008

"The press has been in bed with Barack Obama since he gave the keynote at the 2004 Democratic Convention. Relive the "Obamedia's" public displays of affection in this video love story."

http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?RsrcID=1728

As far as I am concerned, I really do want Obama to succeed for the good of the country. No sane person should ever be rooting for Obama to fail because the entire country and possibly the whole world could fail with him.

However those in the media who were in the tank for Obama and who did not ask him the tough questions BEFORE he was nominated and elected are getting just what they deserve right now in my opinion. Hopefully this will teach them a good lesson to be objective and to ask EVERY serious Presidential candidate the tough questions in future elections!

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 6, 2010 - 7:54pm.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34728351/ns/msnbc_tv-the_ed_show/

'The Ed Show' for Tuesday, January 5th, 2010
Read the transcript to the Tuesday show

Guests: Evan Kohlmann, Tim Walz, A.B. Stoddard, George Miller, Rep. Jan Schakowsky, Rep. Ron Paul, John Feehery, Brad Blakeman, Joan Walsh

ED SCHULTZ, HOST:  "In recent polls in the state of North Dakota, sitting Governor John Hoeven, there‘s a lot of talk about whether he is going to run for that Senate seat.  In the last poll, he was up on Byron Dorgan by 20 points.  Whether that pushed Senator Dorgan away or not, but Dorgan has been around the Congress for some 30 years.

This is a big story.  He has been a stalwart Democrat, a fighter for the middle class.  It‘s sad news tonight that Byron Dorgan is not going to run for the United States Senate seat and seek re-election.

A.B. Stoddard, associate editor for “The Hill,” and Steve McMahon, Democratic strategist, with us tonight.

A.B., what do you make of this story?  Byron Dorgan has been looked upon as a real fighter for the middle class in this country, and this is a man that has given a lot to the Democratic Party and the progressive movement. 

A.B. STODDARD, ASSOCIATE EDITOR, “THE HILL”:  Well, Senator Dorgan knows that these races are very expensive and that the environment for Democrats is terrible this year.  Democrats are on the defensive on the economy, on joblessness, on a domestic agenda, on health care reform, unfortunately, Ed, which is sinking in the polls every day.  And obviously, possibly on the issue now of terrorism. 

We don‘t know what it‘s going to look like come August, September, October, but it‘s going to be a tough year for Democrats across the board.  And looking at a governor who is in a strong position, at this point, in January, is a tough uphill battle, and he made a decision that was right for him.  I don‘t know if it was all political, but it‘s a tough year for Democrats. 

SCHULTZ:  It is.  This is a big blow, I think, to the Democratic Party..."

Here is The Ed Show video link to watch this dialogue:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34716107#34716107  (04:31)


Sen. Byron Dorgan to retire 
Jan. 5: Ed Schultz and a panel of analysts (A.B. Stoddard of "The Hill" and Democratic strategist Steve McMahon) react to the breaking news that Senator Byron Dorgan will no seek re-election.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34716107#34716107  (04:31)

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 7, 2010 - 7:28am.

If Obama's poll numbers keep on going down, then he will probably have a lot of political problems in November. Obama especially needs to improve his poll numbers with Independents in my opinion because they are the people who usually decide close elections:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124949/Approval-Obama-Starts-2010-Shaky-Spot.aspx

January 6, 2010

Obama Starts 2010 With 50% Approval

More than 8 in 10 Democrats but less than half of independents approve

by Lydia Saad

PRINCETON, NJ -- "President Barack Obama begins his second year as president with 50% of Americans approving and 44% disapproving of his overall job performance. This is well below the 68% approval rating Obama received in his first few days as president, and matches his average for all of December -- which included many days when public support for him fell slightly below that important symbolic threshold.

The latest job approval score is based on Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 2-4, 2010 -- the first Gallup Daily survey conducted entirely within the new year...

Obama enjoys 84% approval from Democrats, but closer to 50% approval from independents (currently 47%) and minimal support from Republicans (14%)..."

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 9, 2010 - 1:56pm.

Charlie Cook in my opinion is an overall serious, objective, and credible political analyst.

Cook's quote that "Come November, Senate Democrats' 60-vote supermajority is toast" is something that I think has to be taken VERY seriously. This means that Republicans (most of whom truly fear Rush Limbaugh because he can order his huge activist base of many millions to primary them if they ever upset Limbaugh which makes them especially dangerous in my opinion) could possibly win back a lot of power basically on a default basis just like how Democrats won in 2006 and 2008 mostly on a default basis because of Bush's unpopularity:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20100109_1621.php

THE COOK REPORT

Democrats Trapped In A Vicious Circle

From retirements to party defections, the bad news for 2010 keeps coming.

by Charlie Cook

Saturday, Jan. 9, 2010

In the world of economics, a virtuous circle is created when a series of positive events triggers a self-perpetuating pattern of other good occurrences -- a positive feedback loop, in other words. A vicious circle, of course, is just the opposite and appears to be what Democrats are caught in these days.

Over the past five weeks, four House Democrats in difficult districts have announced their intention to retire and a fifth switched to the GOP; then, in a single day, news broke that three more Democrats, Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, and Gov. Bill Ritter of Colorado, have decided not to seek re-election and that Michigan Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who had been expected to be the party's gubernatorial nominee, has opted out of the race.

"Come November, Senate Democrats' 60-vote supermajority is toast."

Ritter faced a very tough, perhaps uphill, re-election campaign and might well have lost. Cherry was up against similarly formidable obstacles. Dorgan's situation was more complicated. Gov. John Hoeven might have challenged him, but that was not certain. If Hoeven had taken on the incumbent, the governor would have made it a heck of a competitive race that could have gone either way. If Hoeven had opted not to run, Dorgan would have been a cinch for a fourth term.

With Dorgan out, Hoeven would automatically become the favorite. Will he run? Arguably the only potential candidate with a chance of holding the seat for the Democrats would have been Rep. Earl Pomeroy, but he is seeking re-election, not a promotion, in what is almost certain to be a bad year for Democrats in his state. North Dakota Republicans haven't elected a senator since 1980, when Mark Andrews won -- only to lose six years later to Democrat Kent Conrad. The GOP hasn't won the state's at-large House seat since 1979.

North Dakota Democrats partly owe their success to Dorgan, Conrad, and Pomeroy: That trio cracked the code, figuring out how to re-engineer the national Democratic Party's liberal gene into a populist gene by pushing for fiscal restraint and balancing the federal budget. But would that alchemy have worked in a really bad year for Democrats? Although Dorgan may have had other considerations, he decided to go out on top rather than risk leaving as a loser.

Ironically, Dodd's planned retirement is the only good thing that happened to Democrats this week. Another Connecticut Democrat, state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who launched his candidacy after Dodd's news conference, will have a pretty good chance of holding that seat. Dodd had little chance. Unlike in many other states, the Democrats' problem in Connecticut was the incumbent, not the party. Other than Dodd's announcement of his exit strategy, this week was a horror show for Democrats, and party leaders ought to be plenty worried about the self-sustaining nature of vicious cycles.

How many other wavering House -- or Senate -- Democrats will look at the past five weeks and decide that spending the rest of this year as a lame duck is more attractive than spending a horrific year fundraising, scarfing down fast food, and shaking hands -- all the while facing the very real possibility of losing in the end? When their party starts singing endless choruses of "This is going to be a lousy year," lawmakers can easily find themselves humming along.

Come November, Senate Democrats' 60-vote supermajority is toast. It is difficult, if not impossible, to see how Democrats could lose the Senate this year. But they have a 50-50 chance of ending up with fewer than 55 seats in the next Congress.

As for the House, we at The Cook Political Report are still forecasting that Democrats will lose only 20 to 30 seats. Another half-dozen or more retirements in tough districts, however, perhaps combined with another party switch or two, would reduce Democrats' chances of holding the House to only an even-money bet. We rate 217 seats either "Solid Democratic" or "Likely Democratic," meaning that the GOP would have to win every single race now thought to be competitive to reach 218, the barest possible majority. But if Democrats suffer much more erosion in their "Solid" and "Likely" columns, control of the House will suddenly be up for grabs.

Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on January 12, 2010 - 12:52pm.

Ed Show Video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34813430#34813430  (06:49)


Obama and unions differ on reform
Jan. 11: Playbook: Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., and former Vice President for CIGNA, Wendell Potter, discuss President Barack Obama’s meeting with labor leaders Monday afternoon at the White House to try and work through their differences on health reform.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34813430#34813430  (06:49)

Here is The Ed Show transcript of this video:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34823438/ns/msnbc_tv-the_ed_show/

'The Ed Show' for Monday, January 11th, 2010
Read the transcript to the Monday show

Guests: James Clyburn, Al Sharpton, Jack Rice, Michael Eric Dyson, Larry Harris, Stephanie Miller, Michael Medved, Joe Courtney, Wendell Potter, Ron Christie

ED SCHULTZ, HOST: "In my playbook tonight, labor leaders are tired of getting ignored in the health care debate.  Today, they met with President Obama to voice their disagreements with the Senate bill, especially one major sticking point is the tax on high cost—whatever they are—Cadillac insurance plans.  The president supports it.  This is a flip.  Union leaders say that it‘s going to hit the middle class families pretty hard.  AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka went after the tax in a speech earlier today at the National Press Club. 

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICHARD TRUMKA, AFL-CIO PRESIDENT:  This is a policy designed to benefit elites, in this case insurers, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, and irresponsible employees—employers—at the expense of the broader public.  And I can assure you that the labor movement is fighting everything—with everything that we‘ve got to win health care reform that is worthy of the support of working men and working women. 

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHULTZ:  For more, let me bring in Congressman Joe Courtney of Connecticut, who has got 190 congressional signatures, and sending this to the speaker of the House, opposing any kind of tax on health care benefits.  Joe, good to have you on tonight. 

REP. JOE COURTNEY (D), CONNECTICUT:  Great to be here, Ed. 

SCHULTZ:  This is the battle down the stretch, is it not? 

COURTNEY:  It is.  And Richard Trumka was doing God‘s work today, putting a public spotlight on the issue, and then going to the White House and reminding the White House that this was a critical issue in 2008.  John McCain was the one who came out and supported taxing health benefits and the Obama campaign and Democrats vociferously opposed it.  It really demonstrated to the middle class that we‘re on their side.

SCHULTZ:  What do you make to the president and the shift on this?  There is clearly a flip flop on this by President Obama if he‘s going to go with taxing benefits.  And it‘s going to hit the middle class families.  Your thoughts on that.  What do you make of Obama doing—the president doing this?

COURTNEY:  There‘s no question that within the Senate, there‘s a dynamic there that is very challenging.  And to be charitable, that maybe that‘s the logic, in terms of getting a bill through that chamber first.  But there‘s no question that the House bill, which has no tax on health benefits, is on the side of the American people.  Every poll shows that.  And certainly you know what I think labor is out there talking about right now, that it will be tens of millions of Americans, not just union families, but middle class families that will be impacted by this. 

SCHULTZ:  Congress, he put it in historical perspective today in his speech at the National Press Club.  And Mr. Trumka, the head of the AFL-CIO, said this—he referred back in 1994.  He said, “we swallowed our disappointment and worked to preserve a Democratic majority in 1994 because we knew that the alternative—we knew what the alternative was.  But there was no way to dissuade enough working Americans to go to the polls when they couldn‘t tell the difference between the two parties.  Politicians who think that working people have it too good, too much health care, too much Social Security and Medicare, too much power on the job, are inviting a repeat of 1994.” 

Now if this doesn‘t signal a warning—and you consider how many boots are on the ground labor did, how much social networking they did, and how much money they raised for Democratic candidates—if this isn‘t a shot over the bow officially, at the National Press Club—I thought this was the meat of the speech today.  This is saying, hey, fellas, Democrats, we‘re not going to be there in 2010.  We‘re walking right down the road for a repeat of ‘94.  What‘s your response to this? 

COURTNEY:  I think he‘s right that there‘s a lot riding on how we strike a balance in the conference process.  And if you create a health care plan where middle class families feel like they are going backwards rather than forwards, that‘s a recipe for trouble.  We saw it when the Medicare bill was passed in 1988, and it was repealed within a year for the same reason.  And the Clinton health care plan I think really failed for that same reason. 

SCHULTZ:  And finally, congressman, I‘m told that they are working on a compromise, that they would tax the top two percent income tax, and then they would not go after taxing the health care benefits as much as they thought they would.  Would that fly with you? 

COURTNEY:  I mean, really, this is an issue that I‘ve worked on very hard over the last two or three years.  I would really like to look at any plans very closely.  We‘ve got to make sure that middle class families—

SCHULTZ:  You‘re working on a compromise?  You‘d take a compromise on that?  The unions are not going to take a compromise on this.  I mean, they told the president today, this is where—this is where it‘s at.  And you‘re opening the door a little bit. 

COURTNEY:  Well, my position was there before, frankly, even a lot of labor was, back in October on this issue, and put a big red flag up for the Speaker.  And to her credit, we passed a bill with no tax on health benefits.  That‘s still my position. 

Look it, Ed, I‘m certainly someone who is willing to look at anything that they are working on.  At the end of the day, the test has to be, does it protect the middle class. 

SCHULTZ:  Congressman, good to have you with us tonight.  Well, if it goes through, it‘s going to tax the middle class.  That is for sure.  Good to have you with us. 

COURTNEY:  OK. 

SCHULTZ:  Let me turn now to Wendell Potter, a senior fellow at the Center for Media and Democracy.  He‘s a former vice president of insurance giant Signa.  Mr. Potter, always a pleasure.

There‘s three things that the insurance industry is getting: the broker compensation rates, thanks to the two Nelson senators and Bennett from Colorado, these state level management of exchanges, and anti-trust.  Where‘s the victory here, my friend?  Tell us?

WENDELL POTTER, CENTER FOR MEDIA AND DEMOCRACY:  Where is the victory for consumers?

SCHULTZ:  Yes.

POTTER:  You have to look pretty hard to find the real victory.  But some of the new regulations on the industry is important.  What we need to be careful and mindful of are some of the ways the insurance industry will be trying to game the system.  They will be willing to give up the use of preexisting conditions.  But they will want to be using other ways that they can make up that revenue that they would lose by not—by being able to exclude people because of preexisting conditions.

SCHULTZ:  Now, Mr. Potter, state level management of exchanges; doesn‘t this put the power right in the hands of the insurance companies? 

POTTER:  It does.  Because they really control a lot at the state level, more so than at the national level.

SCHULTZ:  And if that provision stays in the final bill, and this is the framework that they are using, I don‘t know how this is going to bring down rates. 

POTTER:  It‘s hard to see how it would.  You really need to have a federal exchange.  You need to have federal oversight, more than we have now.  The regulation of insurance companies at the state level already is very spotty.  Some states do a better job than others, certainly.  No state is adequately resourced to do the regulation as necessary. 

SCHULTZ:  Mr. Potter, always a pleasure.  Great to have you on tonight. 

POTTER:  Thank you, Ed..."

Tricia Keith Spiegel's picture
Submitted by Tricia Keith Spiegel on January 25, 2010 - 1:07pm.

Lots to think about here, Mitch! Thanks!


Submitted by Mitch Dworkin on February 1, 2010 - 7:06am.

while the spending freeze that Obama is proposing could cost him some support from his base:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/31/AR2010013101377.html?hpid=topnews

Obama's $3.8 trillion budget heading to Congress

By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 31, 2010; 8:18 PM

"The $3.8 trillion budget blueprint President Obama plans to submit to Congress on Monday calls for billions of dollars in new spending to combat persistently high unemployment and bolster a battered middle class. But it also would slash funding for hundreds of programs and raise taxes on banks and the wealthy to help rein in soaring budget deficits, according to congressional sources and others with knowledge of the document.

To put people back to work, Obama proposes to spend about $100 billion immediately on a jobs bill that would include tax cuts for small businesses, social safety net programs and aid to state and local governments. To reduce deficits, he would impose new fees on some of the nation's largest banks and permit a range of tax cuts to expire for families earning more than $250,000 a year, in addition to freezing non-security spending for three years.

Despite those efforts, the White House expects the annual gap between spending and revenue to approach a record $1.6 trillion this year as the government continues to dig out from the worst recession in more than a generation, according to congressional sources. The red ink would recede to $1.3 trillion in 2011, but remain persistently high for years to come under Obama's policies..."

Obama cannot afford to lose these voters because the base on the other side is very energized and is more unified in their effort to try and get back power:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/31/AR2010013102860.html?hpid=topnews

The Elephant in the Room
New media help conservatives get their anti-Obama message out

By Jerry Markon
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 1, 2010

"With the Democratic defeat in the recent special senatorial election in Massachusetts, engineered in part by tea-party activists working with several Beltway-based groups, the conservative movement is more energized than it has been in years.

It is also more unified. Disputes festered between economic and social conservatives during the Bush years, but they have eased amid what all sides decry as Obama's liberal agenda. "Nothing unites like a common enemy," said Colin Hanna, president of the conservative group Let Freedom Ring..."

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