LEAP predicts MAJOR World Crisis to 80% certainty
Submitted by FilthyRich on February 27, 2006 - 2:20pm.
Economy

LEAP predicts MAJOR World Crisis to 80% certainty
March 20 to 26, 2006: Iran-USA, beginning of a major world crisis, or
«the End of the Western World we have known since 1945».
LINK
Written by LEAP/E2020
Saturday, 25 February 2006
The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020, LEAP/E2020, now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.
An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:
- on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse (see my blog entry here -Ed.) priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;
- on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward[1].
These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.
A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:
1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis
The article continues by explaining several factors that are involved:
- Decoding of the event “Creation of the Iranian Oil Bourse priced in Euros” ~~
European countries in particular will be able to buy oil directly in their own currency without going though the Dollar. The most conservative evaluations give €1 to $1,30 US Dollar by the end of 2006. But if the crisis reaches the scope anticipated by LEAP/E2020, estimates of €1 for $1,70 in 2007 are no longer unrealistic. - Decoding of the event “End of publication of the M3 macro-economic indicator” ~~
LEAP/E2020 estimates that the American decision to stop publishing M3 aims at hiding as long as possible two US decisions, partly imposed by the political and economic choices made these last years[5]:
. the ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt
. the launch of a monetary policy to support US economic activity.
… two policies to be implemented until at least the October 2006 « mid-term » elections, in order to prevent the Republican Party from being sent in reeling.
(read HERE for a good explaination of M3 and why this is critical. - Ed.) - Decoding of the aggravating factor “The military intervention against Iran” ~~
In parallel, the rising cost of oil which would follow such an intervention will lead Asian countries, China first and foremost, to oppose this option, thus forcing the United States (or Israel) to intervene on their own, without UN guarantee, therefore adding a severe military and diplomatic crisis to the economic and financial crisis. - Relevant factors of the American economic crisis ~~
the share of the debt of the US government owned by US banks fell down to 1,7% in 2004, as opposed to 18% in 1982. In parallel, the share of this same debt owned by foreign operators went from 17% in 1982 up to 49% in 2004. >>Question: How comes that US banks got rid of almost all their share of the US national debt over the last years?
The article concludes, "If this Alarm is so precise, it is that LEAP/E2020’s analyses concluded that all possible scenarios now lead to one single result: we collectively approach a "historical node" which is henceforth inevitable whatever the action of international or national actors. At this stage, only a direct and immediate action on the part of the US administration aimed at preventing a military confrontation with Iran on the one hand, and at giving up the idea to monetarise the US foreign debt on the other hand, could change the course of events."
I encourage you to read the article in its entirety. There are plenty of interesting comments below the article you should read, too. I also suggest you re-evaluate your portfolio in light of this new information. I guarantee you will NOT see this info in the WSJ, NYT, WaPo or on the nightly news.
As we all know, this administration "doesn't DO diplomacy".
Got GOLD?

I understand from other sources about Iran going Euro in March - some experts think that it is provocative and may lead directly to war or there will be a dual system currency for trading oil which has been on the table fup for discussion before - if I look thorough my files i might be able to find my sources
but I don't know what you mean monetarize the M3 not published
need the URL link **** thanks
If Americans reduced meat intake 10 % the savings in grains - soybeans would feed 60 million people - the number of people who starve worldwide each year. Quote Dick Cheney when asked about CAFE standards 'We will not curb our appetites'

Hey Earlybird! I found a definition of monetarisation at (of all places) on Demark's Central Bank Website.
Link to Danmarks Nationalbank <--- click
...monetarisation, which can be defined as the increase in base money resulting from the central bank's purchase of government securities or the government's drawing on its current account with the central bank.
I think what they mean here is that the Federal Reserve Bank (NOT part of the US federal government - it is a PRIVATE bank) simply prints more money. So, if the Fed stops publishing the M3 money supply (which they have reported every month since the creation of the Fed and fiat money in 1912), central banks have the ability to effectively HIDE any and all transactions regarding how much fiat money is printed and who is printing it.
In other words, by NOT publishing the M3, this opens the door to mucho Fed funny bizness, accountable to nobody.
BTW, there are several links imbedded within the post. They are the blue-colored words. Your cursor will turn into a finger when you hover over them.
I hope this helps explain a very complex issue. Thanks for dropping by my blog!
Got GOLD?

yep I know Fed Reserve is not a gov bank Secrets of the Temple/ nor is Bank of England. www.thetruthseeker.com.uk/print.asp?ID=96 I didn't see your links my eyesight is weak ... I am going to read your links tonight...thanks again
If Americans reduced meat intake 10 % the savings in grains - soybeans would feed 60 million people - the number of people who starve worldwide each year. Quote Dick Cheney when asked about CAFE standards 'We will not curb our appetites'

About Us: www.monetary.org
The American Monetary Institute (AMI) is a publicly supported charity, founded in 1996 to present the results of our research in a manner understandable by the average citizen; leading to monetary reforms which bring forth a greater level of economic justice and a more equitable and efficient functioning of government.
This field deserves serious study because while attention is usually focused on the elections of presidents, prime ministers, and representatives, the real outcomes in society - whether there will be general economic justice or special financial privileges for the few - are often quietly determined behind the scenes by the structure of a society’s monetary system.
If Americans reduced meat intake 10 % the savings in grains - soybeans would feed 60 million people - the number of people who starve worldwide each year. Quote Dick Cheney when asked about CAFE standards 'We will not curb our appetites'
This reminds me of an article that I came across last summer that I stashed away for prosparity. Good thing to, I wanted to just give you guys and gals the gist of the articleand leave yall a link, but it's been scrubbed. The interview's authenticity was disputed by Insana, so I won't pretend that I'm positive that it really occured, but I think it might still have some retorical value in light of this post.
Two things though, keep the TP handy, and for God's sake, dont think about "Road Warrior". Doah!!!
In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the "old-timer" funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted "utter global collapse" as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble.
Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate.
Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.
Even more worrisome, he thinks central banks around the globe out of desperation will try to re-inflate the world economy with more liquidity that will create an inflationary spiral unseen in the economic history of mankind.
"Where does it end?", Insana asked Robertson. "Utter global collapse," he answered. But not just economic collapse ... collapse of epic proportions. Collapse and disintegration of all infrastructure, including government. Inflation will run into the double and triple digits. "Food production will fall. People will be carrying around U.S. dollars in wheelbarrows like Germany," he said.
There will be "total collapse of public infrastructure. Total collapse of medical care systems. All public pension plans, Social Security will collapse. All corporate pension plans will collapse."
"The American consumer is effectively now supporting the rest of the planet," he continued. "Consumption rates in all other nations are falling, have fallen to the point that the tax revenues to governments, that the business and industries those nation states are providing is now a net negative number relative to total debt service and public cost, that this exists in virtually every nation state on the planet now."
And for much of this "doom", interestingly, he blames the Bush-Cheney "regime".
"They have now consolidated power and money on the planet to the maximum extent possible. The planet's net liquidity, that is its, net free cash flow. Is now a negative number. The planet is not simply sinking into a sea of red ink; it is already sunk. The people just don't realize it yet," he said.
According to Robertson, "the Bush-Cheney regime is preparing the nation for transition from democracy into dictatorship because a dictatorship will be necessary to control, in 5 years time, food and water riots." He said "the federal government, that part of Patriot II Act, the internal exile, that the government is going to have to build now huge detention compounds on federal lands, probably in the West where the land is available, to potentially house 50 million or more citizens that will be in financial ruin."
In 10 years time, whoever is left will be effectively starting again, he said.
"More importantly, and I'm trying to think how we imply this or how we express this to the people, what extraordinary times we are living in and how the destruction of the planet has been engineered by the Bushonian Cabal from 1980 to 1992, and then from 2001 to present, which has effectively destroyed the economic liquidity of the planet," he said.
Robertson ended the interview by saying that he hopes he is not alive to see this.
"The lucky ones are the ones who are my age now," he said.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) is virtually the only politician that has been consistently questionng the Federal Reserve Board. On February 16, 2006, he gave a speech that warns of the "Dollar Hegemony" coming to an end.
Congress created the Federal Reserve System in 1913. Between then and 1971 the principle of sound money was systematically undermined. Between 1913 and 1971, the Federal Reserve found it much easier to expand the money supply at will for financing war or manipulating the economy with little resistance from Congress-- while benefiting the special interests that influence government.
Dollar dominance got a huge boost after World War II. We were spared the destruction that so many other nations suffered, and our coffers were filled with the world’s gold. But the world chose not to return to the discipline of the gold standard, and the politicians applauded. Printing money to pay the bills was a lot more popular than taxing or restraining unnecessary spending. In spite of the short-term benefits, imbalances were institutionalized for decades to come.
The 1944 Bretton Woods agreement solidified the dollar as the preeminent world reserve currency, replacing the British pound. Due to our political and military muscle, and because we had a huge amount of physical gold, the world readily accepted our dollar (defined as 1/35th of an ounce of gold) as the world’s reserve currency. The dollar was said to be “as good as gold,” and convertible to all foreign central banks at that rate. For American citizens, however, it remained illegal to own. This was a gold-exchange standard that from inception was doomed to fail.
The U.S. did exactly what many predicted she would do. She printed more dollars for which there was no gold backing. But the world was content to accept those dollars for more than 25 years with little question-- until the French and others in the late 1960s demanded we fulfill our promise to pay one ounce of gold for each $35 they delivered to the U.S. Treasury. This resulted in a huge gold drain that brought an end to a very poorly devised pseudo-gold standard.
It all ended on August 15, 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window and refused to pay out any of our remaining 280 million ounces of gold. In essence, we declared our insolvency and everyone recognized some other monetary system had to be devised in order to bring stability to the markets.
Amazingly, a new system was devised which allowed the U.S. to operate the printing presses for the world reserve currency with no restraints placed on it-- not even a pretense of gold convertibility, none whatsoever! Though the new policy was even more deeply flawed, it nevertheless opened the door for dollar hegemony to spread.
~snip~
Increasing gold prices historically are viewed as an indicator of distrust in paper currency. This recent effort was not a whole lot different than the U.S. Treasury selling gold at $35 an ounce in the 1960s, in an attempt to convince the world the dollar was sound and as good as gold. Even during the Depression, one of Roosevelt’s first acts was to remove free market gold pricing as an indication of a flawed monetary system by making it illegal for American citizens to own gold. Economic law eventually limited that effort, as it did in the early 1970s when our Treasury and the IMF tried to fix the price of gold by dumping tons into the market to dampen the enthusiasm of those seeking a safe haven for a falling dollar after gold ownership was re-legalized.Once again the effort between 1980 and 2000 to fool the market as to the true value of the dollar proved unsuccessful. In the past 5 years the dollar has been devalued in terms of gold by more than 50%. You just can’t fool all the people all the time, even with the power of the mighty printing press and money creating system of the Federal Reserve.
~snip~
Even with all the shortcomings of the fiat monetary system, dollar influence thrived. The results seemed beneficial, but gross distortions built into the system remained. And true to form, Washington politicians are only too anxious to solve the problems cropping up with window dressing, while failing to understand and deal with the underlying flawed policy. Protectionism, fixing exchange rates, punitive tariffs, politically motivated sanctions, corporate subsidies, international trade management, price controls, interest rate and wage controls, super-nationalist sentiments, threats of force, and even war are resorted to—all to solve the problems artificially created by deeply flawed monetary and economic systems.Price inflation is raising its ugly head, and the NASDAQ bubble-- generated by easy money-- has burst. The housing bubble likewise created is deflating. Gold prices have doubled, and federal spending is out of sight with zero political will to rein it in. The trade deficit last year was over $728 billion. A $2 trillion war is raging, and plans are being laid to expand the war into Iran and possibly Syria. The only restraining force will be the world’s rejection of the dollar. It’s bound to come and create conditions worse than 1979-1980, which required 21% interest rates to correct. But everything possible will be done to protect the dollar in the meantime. We have a shared interest with those who hold our dollars to keep the whole charade going.
Much of the expense of the Persian Gulf War in 1991 was shouldered by many of our willing allies. That’s not so today. Now, more than ever, the dollar hegemony-- it’s dominance as the world reserve currency-- is required to finance our huge war expenditures. This $2 trillion never-ending war must be paid for, one way or another. Dollar hegemony provides the vehicle to do just that.
I've only provided some snippetts here. Please read Ron Paul's entire speech at
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2006/cr021506.htm
Got GOLD?


US foreign debt? What does that mean? Also, it seems Russia is working to prevent a military confrontation with Iran by the U.S. Actually, that scenario doesn't really work in our best interest from a military standpoint.