On Sunday, May 21^st, people of Montenegro will vote on referendum for independence.

Montenegro is a small country positioned between Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo and Albania. At the moment still the part of Serbia & Montenegro state union, although Montenegrin government got the country in almost-independent position years ago – in 1996. Montenegro introduced Deutsche Mark as its currency (which makes it at the moment only former Yugoslavian Republic that uses Euro as official currency), while in 2004. flag and coat of arms which marked another step to independence were adopted.

Historically, Montenegro is important factor in Balkans region. With the roots back in 10^th century, Montenegrins were always, in one form or another, small nation with high influence to the region. During the expansion of Ottoman empire, Montenegro managed to stay more or less independent. Montenegrin army gains some substantial victories over Ottoman armies at the end of 18^th century.

During the Balkan wars at the beginning of 20^th century Montenegrin armies fighting together with Serbian armies gain important victories. Immediately after the World War I Montenegro is being occupied by Serbian forces. King Nicholas goes to exile in Italy, while Montenegrin forces keep fighting with Serbian forces until 1926.

After the occupation, Montenegro was more or less non existing until the end of World War II. After the victory of Yugoslav communists in WW2 over the Axis forces, Yugoslavia is formed as a union of 6 republics (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia) and 2 autonomous provinces under control of Serbian republic (Vojvodina and Kosovo).

During the collapse of Yugoslavia, Montenegro turned out to be the only Yugoslavian republic (aside of Serbia which under Milosevic gained complete political control over what was supposed to be united Yugoslav Peoples Army) which didn't lean towards independence. Even more, on referendum in 1992. majority of Montenegrin people decided to stay in firm union with Serbia.

Montenegrin volunteers were in large number involved in war against Croatia at the Dubrovnik region. That turned out to be, due to brutality of Montenegrin and Serbian volunteers, one of the turning points in attitude of international community towards the wars in Croatia and Bosnia.

But Montenegrin government starts seeing the mistakes done in the 90s and turns its policy the other way. Even during the era when Milosevic was still considered strong and didn't yet deal with Kosovo in his specific way, Montenegro introduced partial independence from Serbia. As written before, in 1996. Serbian Dinar is replaced by Deutsche Mark as official currency.

Although still in union with Serbia (at that time still called Yugoslavia, but taken down just to Serbia and Montenegro), with new wind in the back Montenegrin government sets new relations with neighboring countries. In 2003. new definition of union is agreed with Serbia, and the common country is now called Serbia and Montenegro.

In 2004. Montenegro introduces new flag and coat of arms. New symbols are based on symbols used in time of King Nicholas (who had to go to exile after Serbia occupied Montenegro).

Existing state union with Serbia could easily come to an end at a referendum on May 21^st. Council of the European Union set a margin of 55% of votes on referendum in favor of independence for it to be achieved.

Forecasts for the referendum results vary between 54% and 57% in favor of independence.

Croatian national (public) TV held a special contact show concerning Montenegrin referendum with a question for viewers “how do you predict referendum will turn out?”. 92% of Croatian viewers expressed opinion that Montenegrin people will vote 55%+ required for independence.

If Montenegro gains independence, it would represent the self-determination of the last still undetermined post-Yugoslavian nation of Balkans. Together with ongoing international community efforts to solve status of Kosovo and to define future of Bosnia & Herzegovina, it could easily be the final untying of Balkan Gordian knot.

I'll post the results of referendum on 22^nd of May, on my birthday. :o)