What was called the American century has given way to the Asian Millennium.84 The economies of South East Asia became progressively more intertwined in the early years of the twenty-first century.  By the year 2000, over seventy percent of the wealth of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore was in the hands of ethnic Chinese.85  The trade between the Chinese in the area and the mainland helped the mainland economy grow rapidly.86  In late 2000, many estimated the Chinese gross domestic product to be in the neighborhood of $5.6 trillion, with annual trade with the U.S. at over $58 billion.87  After the economic slowdown in 2002-2004, China’s economy continued to grow at around 8 percent per year, and passed the U.S. economy in total size by 2011.88  By 2012, Chinese GDP passed $12 trillion on its way to the $29 trillion mark in 2025, the same year the United States economy crossed the $18 trillion threshold.89
      This robust economic expansion paved the way for China to modernize its military.  China increased military spending over 200 percent between 1988 and 1995, and although the pace of growth has slowed somewhat, China’s defense spending continues to increase.90  China began a restructuring of its military in the late 1990s and continued this during the decade that followed.  China began to change a mammoth military equipped with aging and dilapidated equipment into a smaller but more capable force.91  China purchased Sovremenny-class destroyers in the late 1990s,92 and began construction of its first aircraft carrier in 2006.   The construction of the carrier proved more difficult than expected, and the carrier and its attendant aviation wing were not completed until 2012.  Seeking to bolster its force projection capability, China embarked on a program to build a new group every four years until it had seven carrier groups in its fleet.  By 2025, four carrier battle groups were in operation.  China was also concerned about its ability to project ground forces.  A program to build new amphibious vessels was begun in 2005.  Today, in 2025, China has sufficient sealift to land three divisions ashore at a point of its choosing. 

      Well aware of the value of asymmetric weapons, China began investing in directed energy weapons in the late twentieth century.  By 2025, China had equipped her naval vessels with 50 TW pulsed laser cannons; pulsed microwave beams capable of inducing kilovolt electric fields in unprotected circuitry at distances of several tens of miles, and continuous wave microwave devices for point defense, area denial, and adversary troop incapacitation.  Airborne laser systems, while less powerful, were capable of destroying a tank at ten miles, and engaging an adversary aircraft at more than 100 miles in clear weather.  Microwave defense shields were in place around all military assets, capable of disintegrating the circuits of any guided weapon that approached within ten kilometers.93   Aware of the impact of directed energy technologies, and with asymmetric use of these technologies a central theme of their defense plans, China maintains a redundant command and control system with both digital and analog communications.  Hardening against use of these devices has been incorporated into all vessels and vehicles built since 2012. 
The Rise of Iran
 

      Iran began the twenty-first century in economic crisis.  The national GDP had been flat from 1997-1999, and international debt had risen to over ten percent of GDP.94  As oil prices rose in the spring of 2000, Iran experienced a balance of payments influx that began to bolster the economy at a rate of over five percent per year.95  Iran’s economy remained tied to the fortunes of its oil exports, which served the nation well over the period.  Iran had over 105 billion barrels of crude oil reserves with many regions of the nation unexplored at the beginning of the century.  This was in addition to owning nearly one seventh of the world’s natural gas reserves—roughly one quadrillion cubic feet.96  As a result of its vast oil wealth, Iran paid off its international debt by 2007, and its economy continued to grow throughout the period.  As the economies of Asia grew stronger, and as their demand for oil became greater, trade between Iran and China more than quadrupled in this period.  Further, as Iran fulfilled China’s need for oil, China acted as Iran’s primary supplier for arms and a strategic partnership was formed.97 

      In 2025, Iran has a GDP of approximately $1.4 trillion (constant 2000 dollars), and a population approaching 120 million.98  It has an armed force of over 450,000 with over 400 tanks, half equipped with directed energy weapons, and 400 combat aircraft, including two wings of recently acquired stealthy Chinese fighters.  Iran has fielded a submarine fleet of an estimated 100 vessels, several of which are capable of extended silent running, and has constructed several ultra-high-energy laser and high power microwave weapons on the islands in and on the mainland around the Straits of Hormuz.99  These weapons have on-site generation capability, and are tapped into the national power grid for augmentation.
The Theocratic Government of Saudi Arabia
 

      The reign of King Fahd came to an end in late 2011 as a result of an uprising by the religious clergy within the kingdom.  Efforts by CENTCOM Commander to maintain an American presence over the first ten years of the century received support at home and were begrudgingly accepted by King Abdullah as a continuing counterbalance to Iraq, and later to Iran.100  The continued presence of Americans on what was considered “Holy Ground” by most Muslims in the region continued the downward trend of stability within the Saudi Kingdom.101  Feeling “more is better” the plans to jointly exercise U.S. and Saudi forces developed by the CENTCOM staff only exacerbated the problems.102  As a result, uprisings began in 2012, which the Saudi military forces were hard-pressed to control.  In the end, the unwillingness of the Saudi army to kill their countrymen and esteemed religious clerics resulted in the toppling of the government in March 2013.  The religious theocracy that came to power requested all non-believers leave Saudi soil not later than October of that year, and permanent American military presence came to an end.  While the Saudi economy remains intact, and the standard of living continues to slowly improve for the Saudi people, American presence on Saudi territory appears unwelcome unless Saudi Arabia faces imminent invasion of their own territory.
The United States
 

      The United States began the new century as the world’s one and only superpower.  The tax cut package implemented in 2002, combined with increased military and homeland security spending, resulted in an end of the budget surpluses that characterized the 1990s.103   Pro business lobbying and a generally conservative congress resulted in no movement within the U.S. in development of a national energy policy, or the development of more energy efficient infrastructure.  The U.S. ended the year 2000 importing forty-nine percent of its domestic oil needs.104  It enters 2025 importing more than sixty percent of the oil needed to run the economy and fuel its cars, trucks, motorcycles, and aircraft. 
      The economy continued to grow throughout the period.  The GDP rose from just under $9 trillion in 2000 to a 2025 level of nearly $19 trillion.105  Despite the robust economy, a series of tax cuts kept federal revenues relatively steady.  Thus, while there was a recovery from the post cold war military drawdown, this recovery has been slow.  The U.S. enters 2025 with ten full aerospace expeditionary forces, which contain the F-22, JSF, and more than twenty airborne laser attack platforms each.106  The Army has succeeded in implementing much of the Joint Vision 2020 capabilities, but has only started the conversion to what was known in 2000 as the Army after Next.  The Navy is back to thirteen carrier battlegroups with each major combatant ship and submarine having high energy laser and high power microwave weapons.  Powered by nuclear plants, the weapons on the aircraft carriers and submarines are on par with larger fixed ground stations.  Stealthy cruise missiles and stealthy aircraft predominate the air component of each of the services. 

End Of Excerpt

Author
 

      Lieutenant Colonel John P. Geis II entered the Air Force in 1983 as an Honors Graduate of the University of Wisconsin—Madison.  Lt Col Geis has had a varied career.  An instructor weapons systems officer and navigator, Lieutenant Colonel Geis has over 1,200 hours in the F-111A, F-111E, T-37, AT-38B, T-43, and AC-130H aircraft.  Operationally, he served as a planner for Operation Eldorado Canyon, flew combat missions over Bosnia-Herzegovina, and commanded a special operations task force in Korea.  He served as the Chief, Leadership Branch at Squadron Officer School where he restructured the leadership curriculum used to train all Air Force company grade officers.  While attending Air Command and Staff College, Lieutenant Colonel Geis co-authored the Alternate Futures Monograph for the Chief of Staff-directed Air Force 2025 study.  Before attending the Air War College, he was assigned to staff duties as Chief, Strategic Planning, Doctrine, and Force Integration Branch at Headquarters Air Force Special Operations Command.  In this capacity he was responsible for all long-range planning, doctrine development, and joint force integration for all Air Force Special Forces.  He led the development of AFSOF 2027, a future vision document that guided procurement for Air Force Special Forces.  Lieutenant Colonel Geis earned a Bachelors of Science degree in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin, a Masters of Political Science Degree from Auburn University, and a Masters of Strategic Studies Degree from the Air War College.

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cst/occppr32.doc.