Christine Jennings

Candidate for Congress

Florida (FL-13)

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Florida 13

October 13, 2006
Posted by TOM BEVAN | TIME

A month ago I speculated about the negative effect Katherine Harris is having in her old Congressional district. Things have only gotten worse since then.

This week Democrat Christine Jennings released another poll showing her lead over Republican Vern Buchanan expanding to 12 points (50-38) from eight points last month. Also this week, a new independent poll by RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics shows Jennings leading Buchanan by three (47-44).

So is Jennings really ahead? I think so, especially since this is how Buchanan's spokesperson responded to the Jennings poll:

Buchanan spokeswoman Sally Tibbetts disputed the poll's findings but would not release any poll numbers to refute it.

"Our internal polling shows that the momentum is on Vern's side," she said, adding that Buchanan's polls show him "within the statistical margin of error."

Again, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day, and Republicans have a solid registration advantage in the district, so it comes down to a matter of turnout. With Charlie Crist running strong in the Governor's race but Katherine Harris lagging badly in the Senate contest, the GOP ticket in Florida is a mixed bag - especially for Buchanan in Harris's old district. If Buchanan does manage to pull this one out, it'll only be by a hair.