ClarkCast 012 - Middle East Summary
May 28, 2006
Transcription by RichardD

Over the past month we've heard the experience and insight of General Clark into the current state of the Middle East. In this edition of the ClarkCast we'll look again at the background in the region and at the current problems based on decades of experience in the Middle East, General Clark also shares his thoughts on a whole range of solutions to many of the current issues. We'll hope you'll enjoy this summary edition of the Clark Cast and take from it a new understanding of the full picture of the Middle East.

General Clark began the month with a wide-ranging and perceptive view of the stresses currently in place in the Middle East.

General Clark:
You know the region is under prolonged stress from a number of different issues: modernization, the stress of the fundamentalist religion, the impact of our military action against Iraq, the presence of our troops in Kuwait, the need for our troops elsewhere in the gulf, Iranian nuclear pretensions, the meddling of other outside powers and the tremendous opportunities, growth and change wrought by the explosion of petrol-dollars flowing into the area right now. Everything is moving in this region.

The more traditional problems of the region are not the only sat. In many ways the current US leadership has imposed additional tensions upon both the leaders and the people of the Middle East.

General Clark:
The United States has long been committed to supporting gradual democratization consistent with supporting our allies who are not able to transition immediately to democracy. But when the bush administration accelerated the pace of democratization as a cover rationale for invading Iraq it sent shockwaves into the region. The impact of that democratization is clear. Hamas won the Palestinian elections and neither Hosny Mubarak in Egypt nor our friends in Saudi Arabia would recommend to us that they transition to selecting governments by popular election. A whole lot of work has to be done on this basis first.

In most cases, this additional tension has produced unexpected and undesirable results. Take for example the election of Hamas to govern and represent the Palestinians. In response to a question from an Iowa supporter, General Clark defines what our position with Hamas should be. He also draws a subtle and often overlooked distinction between sympathy for the Palestinian people and sympathy for the government of Hamas

General Clark:
Hamas was an organization created on the basis of terrorism. It doesn't recognize the existence of Israel as a state. It's not a participant in the Oslo Solution, which traded ultimate two state solutions for recognition of the State of Israel's right to exist. Until those conditions are met I don't believe the United States should be supporting Hamas, I don't believe the European Union should be supporting Hamas, and I realize that there are people in the Arab world who are supporting the Palestinian people and I know that we all have tremendous sympathy for the Palestinian people, but that's separate from supporting Hamas as a state, as an organization of government.

In short, pre-existing tensions in the region have been compounded both by the US presence in Iraq and the perception in the Middle East of the possibility of a wider long-term US involvement, but having committed hundreds of thousands of US troops and hundreds of billions of dollars, do we now simply leave the region. For General Clark, the answer is not right now. The resulting vacuum would create chaos, not just in Iraq, but throughout the Middle East.

General Clark:
What will happen is that the militias will protect themselves, people will be racked by fear, and the conflict will grow. Outside powers will be tempted to intervene, they'll be met by other outside powers, and you'll have a large scale Lebanon type war of movement. As long as the United States forces are there, there is no power that is going to be able to form up armies in formation with technical vehicles and machine guns and go through and conquer cities and so forth. What the United States must do is use this year as a period of transition, and then begin a responsible redeployment of forces from Iraq. We ought to get out of there as quickly as its feasible to do so, aiming to have left behind an integral Iraq, not broken up into three components, an Iraq that doesn't threaten its neighbors, and an Iraq that is not a training ground, a wholesale training ground, for terrorists anymore than it is already.

Instead, he factors the current situation into the long term and clearly articulates what our goals in the region should be going forward.

General Clark:
We've always said it takes three ingredients to be successful in Iraq: diplomacy in the region, to talk to all of the actors in the region, political work inside Iraq to help pull together a government, and work by the military, both to go after insurgents and the bases and sources of supply and to help control the borders, and work to stand up train the Iraqi police and security forces.

So, what will it take to bring about the best solution in Iraq? A solution that General Clark grades as a C-/D+ solution: leadership and a clearly articulated path to even that marginal success.

Where we are right now in Iraq, is that a new government is apparently taking form. This new government must do two things in order to be effective, two principle things: number one, it must reform the constitution, so that the oil wealth that right now is located in the Shiite and Kurdish areas will be shared equitably with the Sunni population of central Iraq. Secondly, action has to be taken to separate the militias and disarm the militias, pull them out of the security forces, police and the military. Those two actions are critical to maintaining the legitimacy of the government and setting the stage for broader economic recovery and political development inside Iraq.

Clearly, Iraq and Hamas are not the only areas of trouble in the Middle East. Iran continues to defy the international community, raising almost daily their intent to pursue nuclear technologies at times it seems an intractable problem. Prior to the current administration, the US dealt effectively with just such situations, our history, and tradition of diplomacy backed by strength and supported by the world community has averted crises like that in Iran and provided all parties with a measure of satisfaction. General Clark overlays that tradition with the current situation in Iran.

General Clark:
The United States government should be planning for three options: first, how to dissuade Iran from getting, from wanting a nuclear weapon. That's the first option. The second option is how to live with an Iran if they get a nuclear weapon, and I'm not saying you could ever solve that option, but we should be looking at it. I'm not saying it's an acceptable option, but, you should be asking yourself what would it take for us to be able to accept and Iranian nuclear weapon? What would it take? A change of government? A disarmament? An international presence? What would it take? We should be asking that question because it's only when you've asked that question that you can then go to the third line of analysis, which is what if you can't dissuade them and you can't live with it? What are your military options?

Ultimately, the tradition of diplomacy backed by strength begins where it has always begun; with talking.

General Clark:
I recommend that in moving forward we need to establish stronger dialogue with nations in the region; including Iran and Syria. Syria is ripe to receive US consultation and maybe even to move in the direction of greater western rapprochement, as opposed to being pulled back into the orbit of Iran. At the same time we need to be talking to Iran. They have many interests in the region other than the acquisition of nuclear weapons and maybe there is a way through dialogue that we can craft a solution that avoids the military option or even the economic sanctions option. We'll never know if we don't talk to them.

In the end, the only real path to success in the Middle East is a full understanding of the picture of American interests. General Clark walks through some of those interests, many of which are subtle and often overlooked.

General Clark:
The United States government and all of us need to understand that Iraq is part of a regional equation of American interests. Our interests in the region include, not only the presence of troops in Iraq but they include the stability of the Persian gulf states that are exporting oil and increasingly large amounts of natural gas to the united states and elsewhere. They include the protection of the state of Israel, they include supporting our friends, blocking Iranian hegemonic aspirations and the Iranian acquisitions of nuclear weapons, and of course, the most important interest of all is preventing a wider war in the region which would further damage our interests and the interests of all our friends. So we have a lot at stake in this region, not just the presence of our troops in Iraq.

In closing, General Clark pulls the security of the Middle East into the nest of US national security. He offers a suggestion for enhancing that security that will only become more important in the years to come.

General Clark:
One important part, maybe a vital part of national securing of the United States in the future is going to be a national energy policy. … We just need to be using less of it. We need to be developing our own substitutes. We can use other forms of sustainable, reusable energy. I like solar myself, active and passive, plus there's wind, plus there's abundant coal which can be converted into liquids and other forms of energy to power automobiles and power plants. And so there are differing means. We've got to have an effective national energy policy that reduces our exposure to the risks of the international oil market. If we don't we're going to find our foreign policy driven by our energy needs.

Thanks for joining us in the ClarkCast. We hope you've gotten a better picture of General Clark's views and strategies for success in the Middle East. Please join us again next week.