ClarkCast 005 - Leadership and Global Warming
April 9, 2006
transcript by Melange

Last summer will surely be remembered as one of the most tumultuous in terms of weather in recent memory. There was record-setting heat and of course the massive hurricanes that devastated the gulf coast and with the death tolls and the destruction. A few weeks later I was in New York City for the Global Initiative, the Clinton Global Initiative which was a meeting of world leaders organized by President Clinton and I agreed to appear on a panel to discuss a problem that I know is critical to America and the world and that was global warming. But what I said about global warming is that it's not an EPA problem, it's not an environmental problem per se, it's really a national security problem. You have to see it that way and you have to treat it that way in order to have any impact on it.

The evidence on global warming is increasingly solid. I know there was debate about this a decade ago, but the debate's largely resolved. There's very little doubt that the climate is significantly warming and sea levels are rising and Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting. So the question is why, and what will the impact be and then what can be done about it. Well I think the 'why' is pretty clear that mankind has had some impact on this. We've looked at the amount of greenhouse gases suspended in the atmosphere and we started measuring these, I think it was in 1957 at the International Geophysical year they measured them off of, near the peak of a volcano in Hawaii they started and it was around 280-300 parts per million of carbon. It's now at 375 parts per million of carbon in the atmosphere and that carbon is the result of combustion activities - burning, burning forests, burning gasoline and diesel, all of the aspects…burning coal…all the aspects of economic development are based around energy and much of that energy comes from burning carbon fuels and carbon compounds and that contributes in some way to global warming. How much it contributes, nobody knows for sure but it's pretty clear that there's a causal relationship to some extent.

What does it mean? Well, it means that as the planet grows warmer, there will be geopolitical implications. Global warming will thin Arctic ice sheets, raise sea levels and ultimately it could dislocate as much as 100 million people currently living in coastal areas. There are three major scenarios for global warming that I have seen. First is a sort of gradual warming scenario that says temperatures might rise as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit on average around the globe over the next 95 years. If that happens and the Greenland ice pack melts, the glaciers melt in Greenland and some of the Antarctic glaciers melt, well each one of those could raise sea levels by 20-25 feet so you could be looking at 40-50 foot cumulative rise in sea level over this century if they were to completely melt. Maybe they won't.

Another impact would be that as the Greenland ice cap melts it shuts down something known as the ocean conveyor, what we used to call the gulf stream, which brought salty warm water out of the Caribbean, up the coast of the United States, past Bermuda and over to warm the climate in northwest Europe. As the Greenland ice cap melts, the freshwater from that ice cap flows into the north Atlantic, it reduces the salinity, that in turn impedes the flow of the saline water coming up out of the Caribbean and shuts off…or shuts down the gulf stream. There's already been evidence to indicate the gulf stream has slowed down significantly and we believe that the impact of that will be cooling in northwest Europe so this could be a problem that in some way leads to actually a loss of agricultural land and livelihood for millions of people who are still dependent on agriculture and farming and generally moderate weather in northwest Europe.

The third implication might be…and this one is the most far-reaching and to my view frightening. This has to do with methane which is trapped in the Arctic tundra and under the ocean. It's locked up in mineral formations called methyl clathrates and at a certain rise in temperature, these formations can break down and methane can be released. Now, methane is a poisonous gas, it's also spontaneously combustible. It will basically poison anybody who's, or any animals that are in the vicinity but it also if it bursts into flame will consume huge amounts of oxygen in the atmosphere. This methane gas has been locked up for millions…hundreds of millions of years in these Arctic formations and if it were to be released, it would definitely have a very bad impact on us.

So, these are the big three concerns but even if the gulf stream basically remains in place and the methane never comes which is certainly what we hope, just the warmer weather and the raising of the sea levels and the greater temperatures in the ocean will bring stronger and more frequent storms. It means storms like Rita and Katrina might occur every 5 years instead of every hundred. It will mean changes in rainfall patterns that will force people and nations to compete for land and food and water. And just these minimal effects may not imperil American security but it will certainly push other nations, the less well-off nations into strife, pulling to the limits treaties, traditions and relationships between and among nations.

So for all of these reasons, to me, the problem of global warming is a national security problem. Can we deal with it? Well, not without leadership, not without hard work and not without creativity. All those three qualities are going to be required. Part of the solution is to restrict the burning of carbon-based fuels, moving to alternative fuel, sustainable fuels that aren't carbon-based. And part of it is to find ways to dispose of the carbon, draw the carbon out of the atmosphere and prevent the carbon that's being used from going into the atmosphere. Part of it is to promote more rapid agreement between nations on working on issues like global warming.

So essentially it is all about leadership and a little bit about technology and still some about the science of it all. But clearly only by working together can we keep the United States safe, maintain our economic livelihood and help reduce our carbon footprint on the planet. Global warming, it's a national security problem, not just an environmental problem and I look forward to a discussion of this matter in the future and I want to hear back from you. Please join me at securingamerica.com to learn more and send me your feedback. Also, join Laurie David's virtual march at stopglobalwarming.org. Thanks a lot. Great to be with you.